Independent
Dan Osborn
Former president of BCTGM International Union Local 50G and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $5.8M
- From individuals
- $5.5M
- Spent
- $3.4M
- Cash on hand
- $2.4M
Money: FEC, through Oct 14, 2026.
Nebraska › U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
U.S. Senate in Nebraska
Ricketts is favored to win: Ricketts wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.
Osborn (D)
35%
chance of winning
Ricketts (R)
65%
- Average margin
- R+2.4
- 80% of outcomes
- R+11 to D+6
- Partisan lean
- R+21
- Polls
- 15in our database
Ricketts is favored to win: Ricketts wins in 2 of every 3 simulations.
Osborn (D)
34%
chance of winning
Ricketts (R)
66%
- Average margin
- R+2.8
- 80% of outcomes
- R+12 to D+7
- Partisan lean
- R+21
- Polls
- 15in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
RepublicanIncumbent
Pete Ricketts
Incumbent U.S. senator
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
- Raised
- $11.2M
- From individuals
- $2.2M
- Spent
- $4.8M
- Cash on hand
- $6.9M
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.49 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | -1 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 2.81 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 2.81 |
Polls
All 15 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Osborn | Ricketts | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Public AffairsR-sponsored | Oct 2–Oct 5 | 800 LV | 43 | 46 | R+3 | D+1.5 |
| National Public AffairsR-sponsored | Oct 2–Oct 5 | 800 LV | 46 | 49 | R+3 | D+1.5 |
| YouGov | Sep 24–Oct 3 | 1,809 LV | 48 | 47 | D+1 | R+0.3 |
| co/efficientR-sponsored | Sep 28–Sep 30 | 1,113 LV | 43 | 48 | R+5 | R+1.5 |
| co/efficientR-sponsored | Sep 28–Sep 30 | 1,113 LV | 40 | 45 | R+5 | R+1.5 |
| Wedgewood Polls | Sep 14–Sep 16 | 500 LV | 48 | 52 | R+4 | R+4.0 |
| SurveyUSA for Grant Forbes, LLC | Sep 8–Sep 13 | 503 LV | 46 | 42 | D+4 | D+3.2 |
| GBAO for Working Class Majority PAC, which supports OsbornD-sponsored | Sep 3–Sep 8 | 800 LV | 47 | 46 | D+1 | R+4.4 |
| Impact Research for Osborn's campaignD-sponsored | Aug 9–Aug 13 | 600 LV | 47 | 47 | Even | |
| GBAO for Working Class Majority PAC, which supports OsbornD-sponsored | Jul 1–Jul 31 | — V | 47 | 47 | Even | |
| Tavern ResearchD-sponsored | May 8–May 11 | 1,165 LV | 47 | 42 | D+5 | |
| GBAO for Working Class Majority PAC, which supports OsbornD-sponsored | Apr 1–Apr 30 | — V | 46 | 45 | D+1 | |
| Impact Research for Osborn's campaignD-sponsored | Feb 2–Feb 5 | 600 LV | 47 | 48 | R+1 | |
| Lake Research PartnersD-sponsored | Dec 11–Dec 17 | 900 LV | 47 | 48 | R+1 | |
| Lake Research PartnersD-sponsored | Jul 23–Jul 29 | 900 LV | 47 | 46 | D+1 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 5, 2026.
The state
Lean R+21: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 1,978,707
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 35%
- White, no degree
- 50%of adults
- White 75%
- Hispanic 13%
- Black 5%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024
935,005 votes · R+25.2✓ Pete Ricketts (R)62.6%
Preston Love Jr. (D)37.4%
2024 President Vote in this state
934,811 two-party votes · R+20.8 · R+19.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.4%
Kamala Harris (D)39.6%
2020
924,224 votes · R+44.0✓ Ben Sasse (R)63.1%
Chris Janicek (D)24.6%
Preston Love Jr. (OTH)6.3%
Gene Siadek (L)6.0%
2020 President Vote in this state
931,429 two-party votes · R+19.6 · R+24.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.8%
Joe Biden (D)40.2%
2016 President Vote in this state
780,455 two-party votes · R+27.1 · R+29.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)63.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)36.5%
2014
540,337 votes · R+34.3✓ Ben Sasse (R)64.3%
Dave Domina (D)31.5%
Jim Jenkins (I)2.9%
Todd F. Watson (I)1.2%
2008
792,511 votes · R+17.9✓ Mike Johanns (R)57.5%
Scott Kleeb (D)40.1%
Kelly Renee Rosberg (OTH)1.4%
Steven R. Larrick (G)1.0%
2002
480,217 votes · R+69.9✓ Chuck Hagel (R)82.8%
Charlie A. Matulka (D)14.6%
John J. Graziano (L)1.5%
Phil Chase (I)1.1%