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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Florida › U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

U.S. Senate in Florida (special)Special election

Moody is clearly favored to win: Moody wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.

Nixon (D)
18%
chance of winning
Moody (R)
82%
Average margin
R+5.3
80% of outcomes
R+13 to D+2
Partisan lean
R+11
Polls
17in our database

Moody is clearly favored to win: Moody wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.

Nixon (D)
20%
chance of winning
Moody (R)
80%
Average margin
R+5.4
80% of outcomes
R+14 to D+3
Partisan lean
R+11
Polls
17in our database

Range of outcomes

R+5.3R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20
R+5.4R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20

How this race is decided

Unopposed races skip the ballot

A candidate with no opponent is declared elected and the race does not appear on the ballot, so some seats have no vote totals.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Nixon 18%Moody 82%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Nixon 20%Moody 80%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

Democratic

Angie Nixon

State representative from the 13th district (2020–present)

Experience
State legislature
Raised
$974.8K
Spent
$709.9K
Cash on hand
$265K

Money: FEC, through Jul 29, 2026.

Profile and career · Wikipedia

RepublicanAppointed incumbent

Ashley Moody

Incumbent U.S. senator (2025–present)

Experience
Statewide office or Congress
Raised
$13.3M
From individuals
$6.5M
Spent
$10.5M
Cash on hand
$2.8M

Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.

Profile and career · Wikipedia

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by the national and state moodR+0.2Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceR+1.1Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Florida and look-alikeplacesR+1.4Polling average16 polls, latest Oct 10R+6.6Horizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayR+5.3Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayR+5.4

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)0
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)-0.04
Elected-experience edge-0.33
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation-7.06
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation0

Polls

R+15R+10R+5EvenD+5D+10D+15Avg. R+6.6Mar 2Nov 3
All 17 polls
PollsterDatesSampleNixonMoodyMarginAdjusted
MDW Communications for EDGE CommunicationsOct 4–Oct 102,351 LV4248R+6R+7.8
Stetson UniversityOct 1–Oct 9716 LV4152R+11R+8.3
St. Pete Polls for Florida PoliticsOct 5–Oct 7836 LV4547R+2R+4.3
YouGovSep 28–Oct 53,813 LV4449R+5R+6.7
Targoz Market Research for the James Madison Institute, a conservative think tankSep 28–Oct 4847 LV4252R+10R+7.8
Targoz Market Research for the James Madison Institute, a conservative think tankSep 28–Oct 41,171 RV3850R+12R+7.8
Mason-DixonSep 28–Oct 1625 LV4050R+10
Change Research for Freedom Project USAD-sponsoredSep 25–Sep 271,063 LV4748R+1
Stetson UniversitySep 14–Sep 21830 LV4051R+11
InsiderAdvantageR-sponsoredSep 20–Sep 21600 LV4249R+7
St. Pete Polls for Florida PoliticsSep 15–Sep 17913 LV4545EvenR+1.8
Quantus InsightsR-sponsoredSep 8–Sep 10733 LV4350R+7
Change Research for Freedom Project USAD-sponsoredSep 7–Sep 91,107 LV4747Even
University of North FloridaJul 8–Jul 17848 LV4250R+8
Stetson UniversityMar 15–Apr 13848 LV3851R+13
Emerson CollegeMar 29–Mar 311,125 LV3647R+11
University of North FloridaFeb 21–Mar 2786 LV3846R+8

Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 10, 2026.

The state

Lean R+11: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentR+1.2R+3.5 vs. nation2020 presidentR+3.4R+7.9 vs. nation2024 presidentR+13.2R+11.7 vs. nation

Who lives here

Population
22,416,077
Adults with a B.A.+
34%
White, no degree
34%of adults
  • White 50%
  • Hispanic 27%
  • Black 15%
  • Asian 3%
  • Other / multiracial 5%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

2024 President Vote in this state

10,793,163 two-party votes · R+13.2 · R+11.7 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)56.6%
Kamala Harris (D)43.4%

2022

7,761,093 votes · R+16.6
✓ Marco Rubio (R)57.7%
Val Demings (D)41.3%

2020 President Vote in this state

10,965,776 two-party votes · R+3.4 · R+7.9 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)51.7%
Joe Biden (D)48.3%

2016

9,315,264 votes · R+8.0
✓ Marco Rubio (R)51.9%
Patrick Murphy (D)44.3%
Paul Stanton (L)2.1%
Bruce Nathan (I)0.6%

2016 President Vote in this state

9,122,861 two-party votes · R+1.2 · R+3.5 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)50.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)49.4%

2010

5,411,016 votes · R+41.5
✓ Marco Rubio (R)48.9%
Charlie Crist (I)29.7%
Kendrick B. Meek (D)20.2%

2004

7,429,707 votes · R+1.1
✓ Mel Martinez (R)49.4%
Betty Castor (D)48.3%
Dennis F. Bradley (OTH)2.2%

1998

3,900,162 votes · D+24.9
✓ Bob Graham (D)62.5%
Charlie Crist (R)37.5%

Also on the ballot in Florida

GovernorDavid JollyByron Donalds72%Rep.71%Rep.