DemocraticIncumbent
Adrian Fontes
Incumbent secretary of state
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
Arizona › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Arizona Secretary of State
Fontes is very likely to win: Fontes wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
Fontes (D)
95%
chance of winning
Kolodin (R)
5%
- Average margin
- D+10.0
- 80% of outcomes
- D+3 to D+18
- Partisan lean
- R+4
- Polls
- 8in our database
Fontes is clearly favored to win: Fontes wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Fontes (D)
89%
chance of winning
Kolodin (R)
11%
- Average margin
- D+9.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+1 to D+19
- Partisan lean
- R+4
- Polls
- 8in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
Alexander Kolodin
State representative
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Arizona state offices
- +0.2Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
- Environment here
- D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 12.15 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 12.15 |
Polls
All 8 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Fontes | Kolodin | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HighGround, Inc. | Oct 6–Oct 8 | 400 LV | 45 | 34 | D+11 | D+9.4 |
| Grayhouse for Elijah Norton's campaign, the Republican candidate running for 2026 Arizona State Treasurer electionR-sponsored | Oct 6–Oct 8 | 550 LV | 48 | 42 | D+6 | D+14.3 |
| Equis Research | Sep 1–Sep 9 | 1,214 RV | 46 | 44 | D+2 | D+4.4 |
| Arizona State University | Aug 18–Sep 4 | 1,300 RV | 39 | 35 | D+4 | D+5.2 |
| HighGround, Inc. | Aug 15–Aug 18 | 400 LV | 43 | 35 | D+8 | D+6.9 |
| GrayhouseR-sponsored | Aug 11–Aug 13 | 600 LV | 46 | 42 | D+4 | |
| Stealth Analytics | Aug 11–Aug 13 | 530 LV | 39 | 38 | D+1 | |
| Noble Predictive Insights | Aug 10–Aug 13 | 923 LV | 41 | 35 | D+6 | D+8.4 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 8, 2026.
The state
Lean R+4: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 7,378,838
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 33%
- White, no degree
- 36%of adults
- White 53%
- Hispanic 31%
- Black 4%
- Asian 4%
- Other / multiracial 8%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
3,353,102 two-party votes · R+5.6 · R+4.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.8%
Kamala Harris (D)47.2%
2022
2,523,222 votes · D+4.8✓ Adrian Fontes (D)52.3%
Mark Finchem (R)47.6%
2020 President Vote in this state
3,333,829 two-party votes · D+0.3 · R+4.2 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)50.2%
Donald Trump (R)49.8%
2018
2,335,469 votes · D+0.9✓ Katie Hobbs (D)50.4%
Steve Gaynor (R)49.5%
2016 President Vote in this state
2,413,568 two-party votes · R+3.8 · R+6.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.9%
Hillary Clinton (D)48.1%