Senate
Chance of a Senate majority
D 72%▲ D +1
Expected seats 51.9 D · 48.1 R (+0.1 D since Sep 8)
D 72%, 72% Democratic.D 63%▲ D +1
Expected seats 51.4 D · 48.6 R (+0.1 D since Sep 8)
D 63%, 63% Democratic.Forecast updates · Forecast as of Sep 9
Wednesday, September 9, 2026
- Calls changed
- 15
- Party changes
- 10
- New polls
- 18
- Compared with
- Sep 8
Top line
The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Sep 8. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
House
Chance of a House majority
D 92%▲ D +1
Expected seats 233.3 D · 201.7 R (+0.8 D since Sep 8)
D 92%, 92% Democratic.D 86%▲ D +1
Expected seats 233.7 D · 201.3 R (+0.7 D since Sep 8)
D 86%, 86% Democratic.Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
D 70%▼ R +1
Expected seats 26.9 D · 23.1 R (0 D since Sep 8)
D 70%, 70% Democratic.D 74%no change
Expected seats 27.3 D · 22.7 R (0 D since Sep 8)
D 74%, 74% Democratic.Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+8.0D +0.3
Forecast environment
D+8.0D +0.3
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.
Major changes
Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
Each track runs from Solid R (left) to Solid D (right): Sep 8 → now.
Senate races
- U.S. Senate in IowaNow D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
- U.S. Senate in South DakotaLean R → Likely R
- U.S. Senate in South CarolinaLikely R → Lean R
Governor races
- Oregon GovernorLikely D → Lean D
- Florida GovernorLean R → Toss-up
Trifectas
Every call change
15 races changed rating or favored party since Sep 8 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.
Senate 3 changes
- U.S. Senate in IowaNow D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
- U.S. Senate in South DakotaLean R → Likely R
- U.S. Senate in South CarolinaLikely R → Lean R
Governors 2 changes
- Oregon GovernorLikely D → Lean D
- Florida GovernorLean R → Toss-up
House 3 changes
State legislatures 7 changes in 6 chambers
Georgia House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-128Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Michigan State Senate · 1 change
- SD-9Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
New Hampshire House of Representatives · 2 changes
- State House District Sullivan 06Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
- Sullivan 7Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Oregon State Senate · 1 change
- SD-26Lean R → Likely R
Vermont House of Representatives · 1 change
- Caledonia-3 State HouseNow D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Wisconsin State Assembly · 1 change
- AD-82Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
New polls
18 polls new since Sep 8, in 12 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.
Show 6 more
| Race | Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Generic congressional ballot | Catawba College/YouGov | Sep 4–Sep 9 | 779 LV | D 49 · R 38 | D+11 | catawba.edu ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Catawba College/YouGov | Sep 4–Sep 9 | 1,201 A | D 38 · R 28 | D+10 | catawba.edu ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Rasmussen ReportsR sponsor | Sep 3–Sep 9 | 1,905 LV | D 47 · R 42 | D+5 | rasmussenreports.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Marquette University Law School | Sep 2–Sep 9 | 581 LV | D 54 · R 41 | D+13 | law.marquette.edu ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Marquette University Law School | Sep 2–Sep 9 | 864 RV | D 50 · R 42 | D+8 | law.marquette.edu ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Marquette University Law School | Sep 2–Sep 9 | 1,023 A | D 48 · R 39 | D+9 | law.marquette.edu ↗ |
Fundraising
The FEC file this comparison needs was not archived for one of the two dates.
State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.
Candidates
No race changed its modeled candidates since Sep 8.