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Forecast updates · Forecast as of Oct 19

Monday, October 19, 2026

Calls changed
14
Party changes
3
New polls
13
New FEC totals
3
Compared with
Oct 18

Top line

The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Oct 18. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.

Senate

Chance of a Senate majority

D 73%no change

D50%ROct 10Oct 19

Expected seats 52.1 D · 47.9 R (0 D since Oct 18)

D 73%, 73% Democratic.

D 68%no change

D50%ROct 10Oct 19

Expected seats 51.8 D · 48.2 R (0 D since Oct 18)

D 68%, 68% Democratic.

House

Chance of a House majority

D 97%no change

D50%ROct 10Oct 19

Expected seats 238.3 D · 196.7 R (+0.1 D since Oct 18)

D 97%, 97% Democratic.

D 94%no change

D50%ROct 10Oct 19

Expected seats 238.6 D · 196.4 R (+0.1 D since Oct 18)

D 94%, 94% Democratic.

Governors

Chance of a majority of governorships

D 69%▼ R +1

D50%ROct 10Oct 19

Expected seats 26.8 D · 23.2 R (−0.1 D since Oct 18)

D 69%, 69% Democratic.

D 74%▼ R +1

D50%ROct 10Oct 19

Expected seats 27.3 D · 22.7 R (−0.1 D since Oct 18)

D 74%, 74% Democratic.

Generic ballot (likely voters)

D+9.1no change

Forecast environment

D+9.4no change

Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.

Major changes

Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).

Each track runs from Solid R (left) to Solid D (right): Oct 18 → now.

Governor races

  1. Arkansas GovernorLikely R → Solid R

Trifectas

States whose trifecta odds changed category
StateBeforeAfter
Arkansas · R trifecta nowD trifecta <1% · R trifecta 90%D trifecta <1% · R trifecta >99%

Every call change

14 races changed rating or favored party since Oct 18 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.

Governors 1 change

  1. Arkansas GovernorLikely R → Solid R

House 1 change

  1. AR-2Likely R → Lean R

State legislatures 12 changes in 4 chambers

Arkansas House of Representatives · 9 changes
  1. HD-34Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
  2. HD-13Lean D → Toss-up
  3. HD-10Lean D → Toss-up
  4. HD-15Toss-up → Lean R
  5. HD-19Lean D → Toss-up
  6. HD-55Toss-up → Lean R
  7. HD-11Lean R → Likely R
  8. HD-71Likely D → Lean D
  9. HD-67Likely D → Lean D
Arkansas State Senate · 1 change
  1. SD-13Likely D → Lean D
Indiana House of Representatives · 1 change
  1. HD-62Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Maine House of Representatives · 1 change
  1. HD-86Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up

New polls

13 polls new since Oct 18, in 8 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.

New polls
RacePollsterDatesSampleResultMarginSource
U.S. Senate in Florida (special)ActiVoteSep 27–Oct 15400 LVD 47 · R 53R+6activote.net ↗
U.S. Senate in IowaTrafalgar GroupR sponsorOct 13–Oct 151,094 LVD 44 · R 46R+2thetrafalgargroup.org ↗
U.S. Senate in Ohio (special)ActiVoteSep 26–Oct 18400 LVD 50 · R 50Evenactivote.net ↗
U.S. Senate in South CarolinaTrafalgar GroupR sponsorOct 16–Oct 181,095 LVD 46 · R 49R+3thetrafalgargroup.org ↗
U.S. Senate in TexasCBS News/YouGovOct 8–Oct 161,492 LVD 51 · R 49D+2cbsnews.com ↗
Arkansas GovernorHendrix College for Talk Business & PoliticsOct 8–Oct 13709 LVD 32 · R 51R+19talkbusiness.net ↗
Texas GovernorCBS News/YouGovOct 8–Oct 161,492 LVD 48 · R 52R+4cbsnews.com ↗
Arkansas's 2nd DistrictHendrix CollegeAug 12–Aug 131,112 LVD 48 · R 44D+4talkbusiness.net ↗
Arkansas's 2nd District2040 Strategy Group for Jones' campaignD sponsorApr 28–May 8660 LVD 46 · R 43D+3arktimes.com ↗
Arkansas's 2nd District2040 Strategy Group for Jones' campaignD sponsorApr 28–May 8660 RVD 47 · R 41D+6arktimes.com ↗
Presidential approvalWashington Post/ABC News/IpsosOct 9–Oct 132,545 AApprove 33 · Disapprove 66−33 netdocs.google.com ↗
Presidential approvalAP NORCOct 8–Oct 121,119 AApprove 36 · Disapprove 64−28 netapnorc.org ↗
Show 1 more
New polls (continued)
RacePollsterDatesSampleResultMarginSource
Presidential approvalNBC News/Survey MonkeySep 28–Oct 1219,135 AApprove 34 · Disapprove 66−32 netnbcnews.com ↗

Fundraising

3 federal nominees or incumbents with new FEC totals since Oct 18. Two-year totals (2025–26) of their authorized committees.

New fundraising totals
CandidateRaceRaisedNewCash on handThrough
Ace Parsi DemocraticWest Virginia's 2nd District$276,741+$26,700$88,775Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Jim Jordan RepublicanOhio's 4th District$5,563,811+$25,516$4,469,315Sep 30
George Austin RepublicanConnecticut's 2nd District$314,977+$1,025$96,712Oct 14 (was Sep 30)

State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes nightly on race pages but is not compared day to day.

Candidates

No race changed its modeled candidates since Oct 18.