Senate
Chance of a Senate majority
D 72%no change
Expected seats 51.9 D · 48.1 R (0 D since Sep 9)
D 72%, 72% Democratic.D 64%▲ D +1
Expected seats 51.5 D · 48.5 R (+0.1 D since Sep 9)
D 64%, 64% Democratic.Forecast updates · Forecast as of Sep 10
Thursday, September 10, 2026
- Calls changed
- 22
- Party changes
- 8
- New polls
- 19
- Compared with
- Sep 9
Top line
The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Sep 9. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
House
Chance of a House majority
D 93%no change
Expected seats 233.4 D · 201.6 R (+0.1 D since Sep 9)
D 93%, 93% Democratic.D 86%no change
Expected seats 233.4 D · 201.6 R (−0.3 D since Sep 9)
D 86%, 86% Democratic.Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
D 71%▲ D +1
Expected seats 26.9 D · 23.1 R (0 D since Sep 9)
D 71%, 71% Democratic.D 75%▲ D +1
Expected seats 27.4 D · 22.6 R (+0.1 D since Sep 9)
D 75%, 75% Democratic.Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+7.9R +0.1
Forecast environment
D+8.2D +0.2
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.
Major changes
Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
Each track runs from Solid R (left) to Solid D (right): Sep 9 → now.
Senate races
- U.S. Senate in New HampshireLikely D → Solid D
- U.S. Senate in KansasLikely R → Lean R
Governor races
- Ohio GovernorNow D favoredLean R → Toss-up
Trifectas
| State | Before | After |
|---|---|---|
| Ohio · R trifecta now | D trifecta <1% · R trifecta 63% | D trifecta <1% · R trifecta 43% |
Every call change
22 races changed rating or favored party since Sep 9 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.
Senate 2 changes
- U.S. Senate in New HampshireLikely D → Solid D
- U.S. Senate in KansasLikely R → Lean R
Governors 1 change
- Ohio GovernorNow D favoredLean R → Toss-up
State legislatures 18 changes in 6 chambers
New Hampshire House of Representatives · 1 change
- State House District Sullivan 06Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Texas House of Representatives · 2 changes
Utah House of Representatives · 10 changes
Vermont House of Representatives · 1 change
- Caledonia-3 State HouseNow R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
New polls
19 polls new since Sep 9, in 18 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.
Show 7 more
| Race | Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Governor | Mason-Dixon | Sep 8–Sep 10 | 625 LV | D 41 · R 48 | R+7 | s3.documentcloud.org ↗ |
| Montana's 1st District | Public Policy Polling for The Bench, which supports ForstagD sponsor | Sep 9–Sep 10 | 536 RV | D 45 · R 43 | D+2 | x.com ↗ |
| New York's 21st District | Public Policy Polling for The Bench, which supports GendebienD sponsor | Sep 9–Sep 10 | 557 RV | D 43 · R 48 | R+5 | x.com ↗ |
| South Carolina's 1st District | Public Policy Polling for The Bench, which supports LacoreD sponsor | Sep 9–Sep 10 | 536 RV | D 40 · R 41 | R+1 | x.com ↗ |
| Utah's 1st District | Lighthouse Research for the Utah Debate Commission | Aug 31–Sep 10 | 515 LV | D 63 · R 21 | D+42 | utahdebatecommission.org ↗ |
| Utah's 2nd District | Crosby for CongressD sponsor | Sep 8–Sep 10 | 762 RV | D 31 · R 32 | R+1 | petercrosbyforcongress.org ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | ActiVote | Aug 31–Sep 10 | 1,000 LV | D 52 · R 48 | D+4 | activote.net ↗ |
Fundraising
The FEC file this comparison needs was not archived for one of the two dates.
State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.
Candidates
No race changed its modeled candidates since Sep 9.