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Florida › Florida House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Florida House District 87
Gregory is favored to win: Gregory wins in 3 of every 5 simulations.
Gregory (D)
60%
chance of winning
Maples (R)
40%
- Average margin
- D+2.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+8 to D+12
- Partisan lean
- R+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Democratic-held seat, Republicans favored (67%).
Maples is favored to win: Maples wins in 2 of every 3 simulations.
Gregory (D)
33%
chance of winning
Maples (R)
67%
- Average margin
- R+4.0
- 80% of outcomes
- R+17 to D+9
- Partisan lean
- R+8
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Emily Gregory
Incumbent Representative
- Experience
- State legislature
DemocraticCandidate
Jonathan Rubin
Republican
Jon Maples
Former Lake Clarke Shores city councilman and nominee for this district in the 2026 special election
- Experience
- Local office
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Florida state offices
- −1.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.4Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.73 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -7.97 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+8: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 193,806
- People per km²
- 502
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 47%
- White, no degree
- 31%of adults
- White 63%
- Hispanic 20%
- Black 10%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
96,622 votes · R+19.0✓ Mike Caruso (R)59.5%
Sienna Osta (D)40.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
99,268 two-party votes · R+10.8 · R+9.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.4%
Kamala Harris (D)44.6%
2022
75,319 votes · R+18.6✓ Mike Caruso (R)59.3%
Sienna Osta (D)40.7%
2020 Earlier district lines
48,791 votes · D+25.2✓ David Silvers (D)62.6%
Herb Sennett (R)37.4%
2020 President Vote in this district
109,889 two-party votes · R+1.4 · R+5.9 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.7%
Joe Biden (D)49.3%
2016 President Vote in this district
89,404 two-party votes · R+0.1 · R+2.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)49.9%