Senate
Chance of a Senate majority
D 68%
Expected seats 51.6 D · 48.4 R
D 68%, 68% Democratic.D 58%
Expected seats 51.0 D · 49.0 R
D 58%, 58% Democratic.Forecast updates · Forecast as of Sep 1
Tuesday, September 1, 2026
The first entry: later entries compare with it.
Top line
The favored party's chance of a majority. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
House
Chance of a House majority
D 89%
Expected seats 231.1 D · 203.9 R
D 89%, 89% Democratic.D 81%
Expected seats 230.7 D · 204.3 R
D 81%, 81% Democratic.Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
D 62%
Expected seats 26.3 D · 23.7 R
D 62%, 62% Democratic.D 66%
Expected seats 26.7 D · 23.3 R
D 66%, 66% Democratic.Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+6.8
Forecast environment
D+7.3
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.
Major changes
Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
This is the first entry; later entries compare with it.
Every call change
Nothing to compare yet.