Senate
Chance of a Senate majority
D 73%no change
Expected seats 52.0 D · 48.0 R (0 D since Oct 12)
D 73%, 73% Democratic.D 70%no change
Expected seats 51.9 D · 48.1 R (0 D since Oct 12)
D 70%, 70% Democratic.Forecast updates · Forecast as of Oct 13
Tuesday, October 13, 2026
- Calls changed
- 0
- Party changes
- 0
- New polls
- 1
- New FEC totals
- 13
- Compared with
- Oct 12
Top line
The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Oct 12. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
House
Chance of a House majority
D 97%no change
Expected seats 237.6 D · 197.4 R (0 D since Oct 12)
D 97%, 97% Democratic.D 93%no change
Expected seats 238.2 D · 196.8 R (0 D since Oct 12)
D 93%, 93% Democratic.Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
D 71%no change
Expected seats 27.0 D · 23.0 R (0 D since Oct 12)
D 71%, 71% Democratic.D 76%no change
Expected seats 27.5 D · 22.5 R (0 D since Oct 12)
D 76%, 76% Democratic.Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+8.8no change
Forecast environment
D+9.3no change
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.
Major changes
Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
No Senate or governor race, state legislative chamber or trifecta changed its rating or favored party since Oct 12.
Every call change
0 races changed rating or favored party since Oct 12 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.
New polls
1 poll new since Oct 12, in 1 race. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.
| Race | Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Governor | InsiderAdvantageR sponsor | Oct 12–Oct 13 | 800 LV | D 47 · R 49 | R+2 |
Fundraising
13 federal nominees or incumbents with new FEC totals since Oct 12. Two-year totals (2025–26) of their authorized committees.
| Candidate | Race | Raised | New | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joyce Beatty Democratic | Ohio's 3rd District | $1,447,581 | +$246,130 | $2,753,415 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Rick Allen Republican | Georgia's 12th District | $1,207,041 | +$213,821 | $1,444,062 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Lily Tang Williams Republican | New Hampshire's 2nd District | $1,377,170 | +$177,420 | $662,646 | Sep 30 (was Aug 19) |
| Peter Crosby Democratic | Utah's 2nd District | $138,382 | +$78,157 | $48,753 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Spencer Meline Republican | Washington's 8th District | $154,329 | +$27,812 | $100,998 | Sep 30 (was Jul 15) |
| Chris Reichard Democratic | Missouri's 8th District | $25,212 | +$19,538 | $12,563 | Sep 30 (was Jul 15) |
| Kyle Austin Libertarian | U.S. Senate in Montana | $261,825 | +$11,199 | $7,896 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Genevieve Angel Republican | California's 44th District | $21,722 | +$7,824 | $11,089 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Max Ganorkar Republican | North Carolina's 4th District | $18,568 | +$6,651 | $16,842 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Carmen Bucco Republican | New Jersey's 10th District | $8,656 | +$6,386 | $4,758 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Mike Rogers Republican | U.S. Senate in Michigan | $10,903,169 | +$4,992 | $4,414,988 | Sep 30 (was Jul 15) |
| Michael Thurow Independent | Wisconsin's 6th District | $172,533 | +$2,671 | $63,945 | Jul 22 |
Show 1 more
| Candidate | Race | Raised | New | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Hooper Republican | Michigan's 12th District | $1,450 | +$675 | $7,273 | Sep 30 (was Jul 15) |
State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes nightly on race pages but is not compared day to day.
Candidates
No race changed its modeled candidates since Oct 12.