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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

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Wisconsin › Governor · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Wisconsin Governor

Crowley is favored to win: Crowley wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.

Crowley (D)
72%
chance of winning
Tiffany (R)
28%
Average margin
D+3.4
80% of outcomes
R+5 to D+11
Partisan lean
R+1
Polls
12in our database

Crowley is favored to win: Crowley wins in about 2 of every 3 simulations.

Crowley (D)
71%
chance of winning
Tiffany (R)
29%
Average margin
D+3.6
80% of outcomes
R+5 to D+13
Partisan lean
R+1
Polls
12in our database

Range of outcomes

D+3.4R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20
D+3.6R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Crowley 72%Tiffany 28%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Crowley 71%Tiffany 29%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast
Wisconsin state offices
+0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
Environment here
D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by the national and state moodD+8.6Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceD+6.9Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Wisconsin andlook-alike placesD+7.2Polling average8 polls, latest Oct 1D+2.4Horizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayD+3.4Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayD+3.6

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)0
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)0
Elected-experience edge-0.67
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation9.84
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation0

Polls

R+5EvenD+5Avg. D+2.4Mar 19Nov 3
All 12 polls
PollsterDatesSampleCrowleyTiffanyMarginAdjusted
Z to A Research for Rust Belt Rising, which supports DemocratsD-sponsoredSep 28–Oct 1662 LV4944D+5D+0.9
Marquette UniversitySep 16–Sep 23692 LV4946D+3D+3.2
Marquette UniversitySep 16–Sep 23843 RV4645D+1D+3.2
Marquette UniversityAug 12–Aug 20738 LV4944D+5D+6.4
Marquette UniversityAug 12–Aug 20891 RV4444EvenD+6.4
TIPP Insights for the League of American Workers, a conservative advocacy group founded by Steve Cortes, former senior advisor to President Donald TrumpR-sponsoredAug 14–Aug 181,199 LV4743D+4D+7.5
TIPP Insights for the League of American Workers, a conservative advocacy group founded by Steve Cortes, former senior advisor to President Donald TrumpR-sponsoredAug 14–Aug 181,434 RV4341D+2D+7.5
Platform CommunicationsR-sponsoredAug 12–Aug 13500 LV4844D+4D+8.4
GBAO for Protect Our Wisconsin PAC, a group backed by the Democratic Governors AssociationD-sponsoredJul 30–Aug 3800 LV4744D+3
RMG ResearchJul 20–Jul 24800 RV4643D+3D+6.2
TIPP Insights for the League of American Workers, a conservative advocacy group founded by Steve Cortes, former senior advisor to President Donald TrumpR-sponsoredMar 13–Mar 191,175 LV4241D+1
TIPP Insights for the League of American Workers, a conservative advocacy group founded by Steve Cortes, former senior advisor to President Donald TrumpR-sponsoredMar 13–Mar 191,495 RV3938D+1

Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 1, 2026.

The state

Lean R+1: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentR+0.8R+3.0 vs. nation2020 presidentD+0.6R+3.9 vs. nation2024 presidentR+0.9D+0.6 vs. nation

Who lives here

Population
5,914,872
Adults with a B.A.+
33%
White, no degree
54%of adults
  • White 79%
  • Hispanic 8%
  • Black 6%
  • Asian 3%
  • Other / multiracial 5%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

2024 President Vote in this state

3,365,855 two-party votes · R+0.9 · D+0.6 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)50.4%
Kamala Harris (D)49.6%

2022

2,654,507 votes · D+3.4
✓ Tony Evers (D)51.2%
Tim Michels (R)47.8%
Joan Ellis Beglinger (OTH)1.0%

2020 President Vote in this state

3,241,050 two-party votes · D+0.6 · R+3.9 vs. the nation
✓ Joe Biden (D)50.3%
Donald Trump (R)49.7%

2018

2,672,338 votes · D+1.1
✓ Tony Evers (D)49.6%
Scott Walker (R)48.5%
Phillip Anderson (L)0.8%
Maggie Turnbull (I)0.7%

2016 President Vote in this state

2,787,820 two-party votes · R+0.8 · R+3.0 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)50.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)49.6%

2014

2,382,619 votes · R+5.7
✓ Scott Walker (R)52.9%
Mary Burke (D)47.1%

2010

2,133,244 votes · R+5.8
✓ Scott Walker (R)52.9%
Thomas M. Barrett (D)47.1%

2006

2,118,542 votes · D+7.5
✓ James E. Doyle (D)53.8%
Mark Green (R)46.2%

2002

1,772,983 votes · D+4.3
✓ Jim Doyle (D)45.2%
Scott McCallum (R)41.4%
Ed Thompson (L)10.5%
Jim Young (G)2.5%