Senate
Chance of a Senate majority
D 75%▲ D +2
Expected seats 52.2 D · 47.8 R (+0.2 D since Sep 12)
D 75%, 75% Democratic.D 68%▲ D +2
Expected seats 51.8 D · 48.2 R (+0.2 D since Sep 12)
D 68%, 68% Democratic.Forecast updates · Forecast as of Sep 13
Sunday, September 13, 2026
- Calls changed
- 4
- Party changes
- 1
- New polls
- 9
- Compared with
- Sep 12
Top line
The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Sep 12. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
House
Chance of a House majority
D 93%no change
Expected seats 233.6 D · 201.4 R (−0.2 D since Sep 12)
D 93%, 93% Democratic.D 87%no change
Expected seats 234.0 D · 201.0 R (−0.2 D since Sep 12)
D 87%, 87% Democratic.Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
D 74%▼ R +1
Expected seats 27.1 D · 22.9 R (−0.2 D since Sep 12)
D 74%, 74% Democratic.D 78%▼ R +1
Expected seats 27.5 D · 22.5 R (−0.2 D since Sep 12)
D 78%, 78% Democratic.Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+7.8no change
Forecast environment
D+8.1R +0.1
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.
Major changes
Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
Each track runs from Solid R (left) to Solid D (right): Sep 12 → now.
Senate races
- U.S. Senate in NebraskaLikely R → Lean R
Every call change
4 races changed rating or favored party since Sep 12 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.
Senate 1 change
- U.S. Senate in NebraskaLikely R → Lean R
State legislatures 1 change in 1 chamber
Georgia House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-45Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
New polls
9 polls new since Sep 12, in 7 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.
| Race | Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Senate in Nebraska | SurveyUSA for Grant Forbes, LLC | Sep 8–Sep 13 | 503 LV | D 46 · R 42 | D+4 | results.surveyusa.com ↗ |
| U.S. Senate in Texas | SoCal Strategies | Sep 12–Sep 13 | 649 LV | D 50 · R 45 | D+5 | socalstrategies.substack.com ↗ |
| Nebraska Governor | SurveyUSA for Grant Forbes, LLC | Sep 8–Sep 13 | 503 LV | D 35 · R 43 | R+8 | results.surveyusa.com ↗ |
| Texas Governor | SoCal StrategiesR sponsor | Sep 12–Sep 13 | 649 LV | D 44 · R 52 | R+8 | socalstrategies.substack.com ↗ |
| Florida's 27th District | Tulchin Research for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD sponsor | Sep 8–Sep 13 | 600 LV | D 46 · R 47 | R+1 | x.com ↗ |
| Minnesota's 2nd District | Impact Research for Little's campaignD sponsor | Sep 9–Sep 13 | 500 LV | D 52 · R 40 | D+12 | x.com ↗ |
| Nebraska's 2nd District | SurveyUSA for Grant Forbes, LLC | Sep 8–Sep 13 | 182 LV | D 46 · R 42 | D+4 | results.surveyusa.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | New York Times/Siena College | Sep 8–Sep 13 | 1,503 LV | D 51 · R 43 | D+8 | nytimes.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Morning Consult | Sep 7–Sep 13 | — LV | D 49 · R 43 | D+6 | pro-assets.morningconsult.com ↗ |
Fundraising
The FEC file this comparison needs was not archived for one of the two dates.
State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.
Candidates
No race changed its modeled candidates since Sep 12.