Democratic
Jermaine Johnson
State representative from the 80th district (2020–present)
- Experience
- State legislature
South Carolina › Governor · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
South Carolina Governor
Wilson is clearly favored to win: Wilson wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Johnson (D)
10%
chance of winning
Wilson (R)
90%
- Average margin
- R+9.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+19 to Even
- Partisan lean
- R+17
- Polls
- 3in our database
Wilson is clearly favored to win: Wilson wins in 9 of every 10 simulations.
Johnson (D)
11%
chance of winning
Wilson (R)
89%
- Average margin
- R+10.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+21 to D+1
- Partisan lean
- R+17
- Polls
- 3in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
Alan Wilson
Attorney general of South Carolina (2011–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- South Carolina state offices
- +0.0Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
- Environment here
- D+9.5Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 1.72 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 3 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Johnson | Wilson | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resonance Media | Sep 29–Oct 3 | 638 RV | 35 | 45 | R+10 | R+11.9 |
| Hart Research for Jermaine Johnson's campaignD-sponsored | Aug 12–Aug 15 | 600 V | 42 | 50 | R+8 | R+12.0 |
| Public Policy Polling for the campaign of Annie Andrews, Democratic nominee for U.SD-sponsored | Jul 16–Jul 17 | 577 V | 37 | 45 | R+8 | R+12.0 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 3, 2026.
The state
Lean R+17: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 5,296,225
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 32%
- White, no degree
- 41%of adults
- White 62%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 25%
- Asian 2%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
2,512,199 two-party votes · R+18.1 · R+16.6 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.1%
Kamala Harris (D)40.9%
2022
1,709,269 votes · R+17.6✓ Henry McMaster (R)58.0%
Joe Cunningham (D)40.7%
Bruce Reeves (L)1.2%
2020 President Vote in this state
2,476,644 two-party votes · R+11.9 · R+16.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)55.9%
Joe Biden (D)44.1%
2018
1,707,569 votes · R+8.0✓ Henry McMaster / Pamela Evette (R)54.0%
James Smith / Mandy Powers Norrell (D)45.9%
2016 President Vote in this state
2,010,762 two-party votes · R+14.9 · R+17.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)57.5%
Hillary Clinton (D)42.5%
2014
1,212,811 votes · R+14.9✓ Nikki R. Haley (R)57.4%
Vincent A. Sheheen (D)42.6%
2010
1,321,059 votes · R+4.5✓ Nikki R. Haley (R)52.3%
Vincent A. Sheheen (D)47.7%
2006
1,090,944 votes · R+10.3✓ Marshall Clement Sanford Jr (R)55.2%
Tommy Moore (D)44.8%
2002
1,106,562 votes · R+5.8✓ Marshall Clement Sanford Jr (R)52.9%
James H. Hodges (D)47.1%