Senate
Chance of a Senate majority
D 73%▼ R +1
Expected seats 52.0 D · 48.0 R (−0.1 D since Oct 11)
D 73%, 73% Democratic.D 70%▼ R +1
Expected seats 51.9 D · 48.1 R (−0.1 D since Oct 11)
D 70%, 70% Democratic.Forecast updates · Forecast as of Oct 12
Monday, October 12, 2026
- Calls changed
- 3
- Party changes
- 1
- New polls
- 13
- New FEC totals
- 12
- Compared with
- Oct 11
Top line
The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Oct 11. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
House
Chance of a House majority
D 97%no change
Expected seats 237.6 D · 197.4 R (−0.3 D since Oct 11)
D 97%, 97% Democratic.D 93%no change
Expected seats 238.2 D · 196.8 R (−0.3 D since Oct 11)
D 93%, 93% Democratic.Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
D 71%▼ R +1
Expected seats 27.0 D · 23.0 R (−0.1 D since Oct 11)
D 71%, 71% Democratic.D 76%▼ R +1
Expected seats 27.5 D · 22.5 R (−0.1 D since Oct 11)
D 76%, 76% Democratic.Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+8.8R +0.1
Forecast environment
D+9.3R +0.1
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.
Major changes
Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
No Senate or governor race, state legislative chamber or trifecta changed its rating or favored party since Oct 11.
Every call change
3 races changed rating or favored party since Oct 11 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.
Statewide offices 1 change
- Minnesota AuditorLean D → Likely D
New polls
13 polls new since Oct 11, in 9 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.
| Race | Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Senate in Iowa | YouGov | Oct 6–Oct 12 | 2,245 LV | D 47 · R 46 | D+1 |
| U.S. Senate in Minnesota | KSTP/SurveyUSA | Oct 8–Oct 12 | 718 LV | D 45 · R 42 | D+3 |
| Connecticut Governor | Quinnipiac University Polling Institute | Oct 8–Oct 12 | 1,225 LV | D 58 · R 38 | D+20 |
| Connecticut Governor | Emerson College for Nexstar Media | Oct 10–Oct 12 | 800 LV | D 51 · R 38 | D+13 |
| Iowa Governor | YouGov | Oct 6–Oct 12 | 2,245 LV | D 50 · R 44 | D+6 |
| Minnesota Governor | KSTP/SurveyUSA | Oct 8–Oct 12 | 718 LV | D 48 · R 41 | D+7 |
| New York Governor | Pollfinity Research | Oct 8–Oct 12 | 499 RV | D 47 · R 44 | D+3 |
| Minnesota Attorney General | KSTP/SurveyUSA | Oct 8–Oct 12 | 718 LV | D 45 · R 44 | D+1 |
| Minnesota Auditor | KSTP/SurveyUSA | Oct 8–Oct 12 | 718 LV | D 41 · R 40 | D+1 |
| California's 34th District | Center for Strategic Politics for Gonzales-Torres's campaignD sponsor | Oct 8–Oct 12 | 416 LV | D 38 · R — | — |
| Generic congressional ballot | The Economist/YouGov | Oct 10–Oct 12 | 1,403 RV | D 46 · R 39 | D+7 |
| Generic congressional ballot | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox News | Oct 9–Oct 12 | 1,202 RV | D 54 · R 45 | D+9 |
Show 1 more
| Race | Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Presidential approval | Fox News/Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research | Oct 9–Oct 12 | 1,202 RV | Approve 36 · Disapprove 64 | −28 net |
Fundraising
12 federal nominees or incumbents with new FEC totals since Oct 11. Two-year totals (2025–26) of their authorized committees.
| Candidate | Race | Raised | New | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Kozycki Democratic | Georgia's 7th District | $883,487 | +$490,656 | $683,382 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Marilyn Strickland Democratic | Washington's 10th District | $1,842,714 | +$331,410 | $704,278 | Sep 30 (was Jul 15) |
| Alan Bradstock Democratic | Pennsylvania's 14th District | $370,028 | +$168,607 | $64,210 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Rick Crosson Democratic | Wisconsin's 8th District | $142,421 | +$75,517 | $45,644 | Sep 30 (was Jul 22) |
| Kimberly Overman Democratic | Florida's 12th District | $259,934 | +$73,121 | $30,573 | Sep 30 (was Jul 29) |
| Claire Reynolds Democratic | Texas's 11th District | $122,572 | +$33,291 | $53,523 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Matt Day Republican | Georgia's 2nd District | $217,006 | +$10,662 | $0 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Chad Koppie Republican | Illinois's 7th District | $58,215 | +$2,764 | $42 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Bill Reeside Libertarian | South Carolina's 1st District | $115,392 | +$1,570 | $5,886 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Robert Murray Republican | Virginia's 4th District | $1,228 | first report | $1,201 | Sep 30 |
| Martha Fierro Republican | Texas's 29th District | $485 | +$485 | $396 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Erik Osberg Democratic | Minnesota's 7th District | $330,067 | +$100 | $114,727 | Jul 22 |
State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes nightly on race pages but is not compared day to day.
Candidates
No race changed its modeled candidates since Oct 11.