Democratic
Eli Savit
Washtenaw County prosecuting attorney (2021–present)
- Experience
- Local office
Michigan › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Michigan Attorney General
Savit is clearly favored to win: Savit wins in 7 of every 8 simulations.
Savit (D)
87%
chance of winning
Lloyd (R)
13%
- Average margin
- D+7.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+1 to D+15
- Partisan lean
- Even
- Polls
- 2in our database
Savit is favored to win: Savit wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Savit (D)
76%
chance of winning
Lloyd (R)
24%
- Average margin
- D+5.6
- 80% of outcomes
- R+5 to D+16
- Partisan lean
- Even
- Polls
- 2in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Republican
Doug Lloyd
Eaton County prosecuting attorney (2013–present)
- Experience
- Local office
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Michigan state offices
- −0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
- Environment here
- D+9.4Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 20 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 2 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Savit | Lloyd | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal/Beacon Research for Michigan Enjoyer | Sep 18–Sep 21 | 600 LV | 39 | 37 | D+2 | D+2.0 |
| Glengariff Group for The Detroit News and WDIV-TV | Aug 31–Sep 3 | 600 LV | 36 | 35 | D+1 | D+6.3 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 21, 2026.
The state
Lean Even: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 10,077,761
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 32%
- White, no degree
- 50%of adults
- White 72%
- Hispanic 6%
- Black 13%
- Asian 3%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
5,553,169 two-party votes · R+1.4 · D+0.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.7%
Kamala Harris (D)49.3%
2022
6,153,017 votes · D+15.4✓ Dana Nessel (D)56.7%
Matthew Deperno (R)41.6%
Joseph W McHugh Jr (L)1.1%
Gerald T van Sickle (OTH)0.5%
2020 President Vote in this state
5,453,892 two-party votes · D+2.8 · R+1.7 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)51.4%
Donald Trump (R)48.6%
2018
4,142,044 votes · D+2.9✓ Dana Nessel (D)49.0%
Tom Leonard (R)46.3%
Lisa Lane Gioia (L)2.1%
Chris Graveline (—)1.7%
Gerald T van Sickle (OTH)0.9%
2016 President Vote in this state
4,548,382 two-party votes · R+0.2 · R+2.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)50.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)49.9%