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Forecast updates · Forecast as of Sep 14

Monday, September 14, 2026

Calls changed
26
Party changes
9
New polls
29
Compared with
Sep 13

Top line

The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Sep 13. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.

Senate

Chance of a Senate majority

D 72%▼ R +3

D50%RSep 1Sep 14

Expected seats 51.9 D · 48.1 R (−0.3 D since Sep 13)

D 72%, 72% Democratic.

D 65%▼ R +3

D50%RSep 1Sep 14

Expected seats 51.5 D · 48.5 R (−0.3 D since Sep 13)

D 65%, 65% Democratic.

House

Chance of a House majority

D 93%no change

D50%RSep 1Sep 14

Expected seats 234.0 D · 201.0 R (+0.4 D since Sep 13)

D 93%, 93% Democratic.

D 87%no change

D50%RSep 1Sep 14

Expected seats 234.1 D · 200.9 R (+0.1 D since Sep 13)

D 87%, 87% Democratic.

Governors

Chance of a majority of governorships

D 72%▼ R +2

D50%RSep 1Sep 14

Expected seats 27.0 D · 23.0 R (−0.1 D since Sep 13)

D 72%, 72% Democratic.

D 76%▼ R +2

D50%RSep 1Sep 14

Expected seats 27.4 D · 22.6 R (−0.1 D since Sep 13)

D 76%, 76% Democratic.

Generic ballot (likely voters)

D+8.1D +0.2

Forecast environment

D+8.3D +0.1

Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.

Major changes

Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).

Each track runs from Solid R (left) to Solid D (right): Sep 13 → now.

Senate races

  1. U.S. Senate in AlaskaNow R favoredLean D → Lean R

Governor races

  1. Georgia GovernorLean D → Toss-up

State legislative chambers

  1. Minnesota State SenateSolid D → Likely D
  2. Georgia House of RepresentativesLean R → Likely R

Trifectas

States whose trifecta odds changed category
StateBeforeAfter
NevadaD trifecta 61% · R trifecta <1%D trifecta 60% · R trifecta <1%

Every call change

26 races changed rating or favored party since Sep 13 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.

Senate 1 change

  1. U.S. Senate in AlaskaNow R favoredLean D → Lean R

Governors 1 change

  1. Georgia GovernorLean D → Toss-up

Statewide offices 3 changes

  1. Minnesota AuditorLikely D → Lean D
  2. Minnesota Attorney GeneralSolid D → Likely D
  3. Georgia Lieutenant GovernorLikely D → Lean D

House 1 change

  1. PA-1Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up

State legislatures 20 changes in 8 chambers

Alaska House of Representatives · 1 change
  1. HD-15Lean D → Toss-up
Connecticut House of Representatives · 1 change
  1. HD-119Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Georgia House of Representatives · 1 change
  1. HD-128Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Michigan State Senate · 1 change
  1. SD-32Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Minnesota House of Representatives · 8 changes
  1. HD-34ALean D → Toss-up
  2. HD-33AToss-up → Lean R
  3. HD-14ALean D → Toss-up
  4. HD-41ALikely D → Lean D
  5. HD-2AToss-up → Lean R
  6. HD-32ALean R → Likely R
  7. HD-26ALikely D → Lean D
  8. HD-20ALean R → Likely R
Minnesota State Senate · 6 changes
  1. SD-58Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
  2. SD-32Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
  3. SD-24Lean D → Toss-up
  4. SD-33Lean D → Toss-up
  5. SD-48Lean D → Toss-up
  6. SD-4Likely D → Lean D
Rhode Island State Senate · 1 change
  1. SD-34Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Wisconsin State Assembly · 1 change
  1. AD-82Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up

New polls

29 polls new since Sep 13, in 20 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.

New polls
RacePollsterDatesSampleResultMarginSource
U.S. Senate in AlaskaRasmussen ReportsR sponsorSep 13–Sep 141,188 LVD 39 · R 39Evenrasmussenreports.com ↗
U.S. Senate in GeorgiaRasmussen ReportsR sponsorSep 141,019 LVD 51 · R 42D+9rasmussenreports.com ↗
U.S. Senate in MaineUniversity of Massachusetts/YouGovAug 28–Sep 14650 LVD 48 · R 43D+5uml.edu ↗
U.S. Senate in MichiganEmerson CollegeSep 12–Sep 141,000 LVD 48 · R 46D+2emersoncollegepolling.com ↗
U.S. Senate in MichiganThe Washington Post/SSPGSep 10–Sep 14803 LVD 48 · R 45D+3washingtonpost.com ↗
U.S. Senate in MinnesotaKSTP/SurveyUSASep 9–Sep 14654 LVD 42 · R 42Evenkstp.com ↗
U.S. Senate in South CarolinaRasmussen ReportsR sponsorSep 141,006 LVD 43 · R 48R+5rasmussenreports.com ↗
U.S. Senate in TexasEmerson CollegeSep 12–Sep 141,000 LVD 47 · R 46D+1emersoncollegepolling.com ↗
California GovernorUC Berkeley Citrin Center/TrueDot/PoliticoSep 8–Sep 142,418 RVD 48 · R 34D+14politico.com ↗
California GovernorUC Berkeley Citrin Center/TrueDot/PoliticoSep 8–Sep 141,983 LVD 54 · R 36D+18politico.com ↗
Connecticut GovernorQuinnipiac UniversitySep 8–Sep 141,288 LVD 55 · R 38D+17poll.qu.edu ↗
Georgia GovernorRasmussen ReportsR sponsorSep 141,019 LVD 45 · R 48R+3rasmussenreports.com ↗
Show 17 more
New polls (continued)
RacePollsterDatesSampleResultMarginSource
Maine GovernorUniversity of Massachusetts/YouGovAug 28–Sep 14650 LVD 49 · R 38D+11uml.edu ↗
Michigan GovernorEmerson CollegeSep 12–Sep 141,000 LVD 49 · R 42D+7emersoncollegepolling.com ↗
Michigan GovernorThe Washington Post/SSPGSep 10–Sep 14803 LVD 53 · R 41D+12washingtonpost.com ↗
Minnesota GovernorKSTP/SurveyUSASep 9–Sep 14654 LVD 47 · R 40D+7kstp.com ↗
Nebraska GovernorLake Research Partners for Walz's campaignD sponsorSep 8–Sep 14— RVD 40 · R 40Evenomaha.com ↗
Texas GovernorEmerson CollegeSep 12–Sep 141,000 LVD 46 · R 49R+3emersoncollegepolling.com ↗
Minnesota Attorney GeneralKTSP/SurveyUSASep 9–Sep 14654 LVD 43 · R 45R+2kstp.com ↗
Iowa Secretary of StateChange Research for Peterman's campaignD sponsorSep 11–Sep 14704 LVD 40 · R 42R+2docs.google.com ↗
Minnesota Secretary of StateKSTP/SurveyUSASep 9–Sep 14654 LVD 40 · R 36D+4kstp.com ↗
Minnesota AuditorKSTP/SurveyUSASep 9–Sep 14654 LVD 36 · R 43R+7kstp.com ↗
Pennsylvania's 1st DistrictPublic Opinion Strategies for Fitzpatrick's campaignR sponsorSep 11–Sep 14400 RVD 40 · R 49R+9x.com ↗
Generic congressional ballotReuters/IpsosSep 11–Sep 14896 RVD 44 · R 37D+7ipsos.com ↗
Generic congressional ballotReuters/IpsosSep 11–Sep 141,143 AD 39 · R 31D+8ipsos.com ↗
Generic congressional ballotBeacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox NewsSep 11–Sep 141,211 RVD 51 · R 44D+7foxnews.com ↗
Generic congressional ballotThe Economist/YouGovSep 11–Sep 141,051 LVD 51 · R 39D+12d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗
Generic congressional ballotThe Economist/YouGovSep 11–Sep 141,455 RVD 44 · R 39D+5d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗
Generic congressional ballotThe Rainey CenterSep 10–Sep 141,004 RVD 48 · R 42D+6raineycenter.org ↗

Fundraising

The FEC file this comparison needs was not archived for one of the two dates.

State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.

Candidates

No race changed its modeled candidates since Sep 13.