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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Florida › Governor · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Florida Governor

Donalds is favored to win: Donalds wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.

Jolly (D)
28%
chance of winning
Donalds (R)
72%
Average margin
R+3.4
80% of outcomes
R+11 to D+4
Partisan lean
R+11
Polls
31in our database

Donalds is favored to win: Donalds wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.

Jolly (D)
29%
chance of winning
Donalds (R)
71%
Average margin
R+3.6
80% of outcomes
R+12 to D+5
Partisan lean
R+11
Polls
31in our database

Range of outcomes

R+3.4R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20
R+3.6R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20

How this race is decided

Unopposed races skip the ballot

A candidate with no opponent is declared elected and the race does not appear on the ballot, so some seats have no vote totals.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Jolly 28%Donalds 72%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Jolly 29%Donalds 71%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast
Florida state offices
−0.5Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
Environment here
D+9.1Used by the fundamentals
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by the national and state moodR+0.8Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceR+1.5Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Florida and look-alikeplacesR+2.6Polling average28 polls, latest Oct 11R+3.9Horizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayR+3.5Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayR+3.6

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)0
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)0
Elected-experience edge0
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation-10
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation0

Polls

R+10R+5EvenD+5D+10Avg. R+3.9Aug 27Nov 3
All 31 polls
PollsterDatesSampleJollyDonaldsMarginAdjusted
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates for Donalds' campaignR-sponsoredOct 8–Oct 111,200 LV4349R+6R+0.4
Change Research for Freedom Project USAD-sponsoredOct 8–Oct 10920 LV4747EvenR+5.9
MDW Communications for EDGE CommunicationsOct 4–Oct 102,351 LV4446R+2R+3.3
Stetson UniversityOct 1–Oct 9716 LV4152R+11
St. Pete Polls for Florida PoliticsOct 5–Oct 7836 LV4545EvenR+2.1
YouGovSep 28–Oct 53,813 LV4547R+2R+3.5
Targoz Market Research for the James Madison Institute, a conservative think tankSep 28–Oct 4849 LV4252R+10R+7.8
Targoz Market Research for the James Madison Institute, a conservative think tankSep 28–Oct 41,174 RV3948R+9R+7.8
Mason-DixonSep 28–Oct 1625 LV4148R+7
Change Research for Freedom Project USAD-sponsoredSep 25–Sep 271,063 LV4846D+2
Stetson UniversitySep 14–Sep 21830 LV3951R+12
St. Pete Polls for Florida PoliticsSep 15–Sep 17913 LV4344R+1
Change Research for Freedom Project USAD-sponsoredSep 7–Sep 91,107 LV4744D+3
Hart Research Associates for the Democratic Governors AssociationD-sponsoredAug 10–Aug 13600 LV4645D+1
Targoz Market Research for the James Madison Institute, a conservative think tankJul 20–Jul 261,026 LV3845R+7
University of North FloridaJul 8–Jul 17848 LV4146R+5
Change ResearchD-sponsoredJul 9–Jul 111,348 RV3737Even
Change ResearchD-sponsoredJul 9–Jul 111,348 RV4140D+1
Change Research for Freedom Project USAD-sponsoredMay 13–May 161,593 LV4642D+4
Change Research for Freedom Project USAD-sponsoredMay 13–May 162,070 RV4143R+2
Cherry Communications for the Florida Chamber of CommerceR-sponsoredMay 1–May 9604 LV3947R+8
Stetson UniversityMar 15–Apr 13848 LV4047R+7
Echelon Insights for NetChoiceApr 3–Apr 9406 LV4349R+6
MDW Communications for Edge CommunicationsD-sponsoredMar 27–Apr 31,834 LV4141Even
Emerson CollegeMar 29–Mar 311,165 LV3944R+5
University of North FloridaFeb 21–Mar 2786 LV3642R+6
Targoz Market Research for the James Madison Institute, a conservative think tankFeb 13–Feb 161,129 LV3641R+5
University of North FloridaOct 15–Oct 25728 LV3445R+11
Targoz Market Research for the James Madison Institute, a conservative think tankSep 16–Sep 181,118 RV3236R+4
Bendixen & Amandi International for Jolly's campaignD-sponsoredSep 7–Sep 9631 LV4140D+1
AIF CenterR-sponsoredAug 25–Aug 27800 LV4149R+8

Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 11, 2026.

The state

Lean R+11: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentR+1.2R+3.5 vs. nation2020 presidentR+3.4R+7.9 vs. nation2024 presidentR+13.2R+11.7 vs. nation

Who lives here

Population
22,416,077
Adults with a B.A.+
34%
White, no degree
34%of adults
  • White 50%
  • Hispanic 27%
  • Black 15%
  • Asian 3%
  • Other / multiracial 5%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

2024 President Vote in this state

10,793,163 two-party votes · R+13.2 · R+11.7 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)56.6%
Kamala Harris (D)43.4%

2022

7,771,398 votes · R+19.5
✓ Ron Desantis (R)59.4%
Charlie Crist (D)40.0%

2020 President Vote in this state

10,965,776 two-party votes · R+3.4 · R+7.9 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)51.7%
Joe Biden (D)48.3%

2018

8,228,238 votes · R+0.4
✓ Ron Desantis (R)49.5%
Andrew Gillum (D)49.1%
Darcy G Richardson (OTH)0.6%

2016 President Vote in this state

9,122,861 two-party votes · R+1.2 · R+3.5 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)50.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)49.4%

2014

5,666,541 votes · R+1.1
✓ Rick Scott (R)50.6%
Charlie Crist (D)49.4%

2010

5,177,120 votes · R+1.2
✓ Rick Scott (R)50.6%
Alex Sink (D)49.4%

2006

4,698,134 votes · R+7.3
✓ Charlie Crist (R)53.6%
Jim Davis (D)46.4%

2002

5,058,272 votes · R+13.0
✓ Jeb Bush (R)56.5%
Bill McBride (D)43.5%

Also on the ballot in Florida

U.S. Senate (special)Angie NixonAshley Moody82%Rep.80%Rep.