Senate
Chance of a Senate majority
D 76%▲ D +1
Expected seats 52.3 D · 47.7 R (+0.2 D since Sep 15)
D 76%, 76% Democratic.D 69%▲ D +1
Expected seats 51.9 D · 48.1 R (+0.1 D since Sep 15)
D 69%, 69% Democratic.Forecast updates · Forecast as of Sep 16
Wednesday, September 16, 2026
- Calls changed
- 10
- Party changes
- 3
- New polls
- 20
- Compared with
- Sep 15
Top line
The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Sep 15. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
House
Chance of a House majority
D 94%no change
Expected seats 235.3 D · 199.7 R (−0.2 D since Sep 15)
D 94%, 94% Democratic.D 89%no change
Expected seats 235.6 D · 199.4 R (0 D since Sep 15)
D 89%, 89% Democratic.Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
D 74%▼ R +1
Expected seats 27.1 D · 22.9 R (0 D since Sep 15)
D 74%, 74% Democratic.D 77%no change
Expected seats 27.6 D · 22.4 R (0 D since Sep 15)
D 77%, 77% Democratic.Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+8.6R +0.1
Forecast environment
D+8.7no change
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.
Major changes
Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
Each track runs from Solid R (left) to Solid D (right): Sep 15 → now.
Senate races
- U.S. Senate in IdahoSolid R → Likely R
- U.S. Senate in IowaLean D → Toss-up
Trifectas
| State | Before | After |
|---|---|---|
| Colorado · D trifecta now | D trifecta 95% · R trifecta <1% | D trifecta 95% · R trifecta <1% |
Every call change
10 races changed rating or favored party since Sep 15 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.
Senate 2 changes
- U.S. Senate in IdahoSolid R → Likely R
- U.S. Senate in IowaLean D → Toss-up
State legislatures 6 changes in 4 chambers
Massachusetts House of Representatives · 1 change
- 22nd MiddlesexNow D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Utah House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-8Likely R → Lean R
New polls
20 polls new since Sep 15, in 11 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.
Show 8 more
| Race | Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa Governor | co/efficientR sponsor | Sep 14–Sep 16 | 831 LV | D 46 · R 42 | D+4 | battlegrounds.coefficient.org ↗ |
| Idaho Governor | Advanced Targeting Research | Sep 13–Sep 16 | 700 RV | D 27 · R 37 | R+10 | advancedtargetingresearch.com ↗ |
| Kansas Governor | Emerson College for Nexstar Media Group | Sep 15–Sep 16 | 750 LV | D 44 · R 51 | R+7 | emersoncollegepolling.com ↗ |
| Kansas Governor | Global Strategy Group for the Democratic Attorneys General AssociationD sponsor | Sep 13–Sep 16 | 800 LV | D 49 · R 46 | D+3 | static.politico.com ↗ |
| Kansas Attorney General | Global Strategy Group for the Democratic Attorneys General AssociationD sponsor | Sep 13–Sep 16 | 800 LV | D 47 · R 46 | D+1 | static.politico.com ↗ |
| Michigan's 4th District | GBAO for McCann's campaignD sponsor | Sep 13–Sep 16 | 500 LV | D 47 · R 46 | D+1 | x.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Clarity Campaign LabsD sponsor | Sep 11–Sep 16 | 1,046 LV | D 50 · R 43 | D+7 | claritycampaigns.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Rasmussen ReportsR sponsor | Sep 10–Sep 16 | 1,746 LV | D 49 · R 41 | D+8 | rasmussenreports.com ↗ |
Fundraising
The FEC file this comparison needs was not archived for one of the two dates.
State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.
Candidates
No race changed its modeled candidates since Sep 15.