Independent
Todd Achilles
Former Democratic state representative from the 16th district (2024–2025)
- Experience
- State legislature
- Raised
- $692.2K
- From individuals
- $585.7K
- Spent
- $506.3K
- Cash on hand
- $194.2K
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Idaho › U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
U.S. Senate in Idaho
Risch is very likely to win: Risch wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
Achilles (D)
1%
chance of winning
Risch (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+19.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+28 to R+10
- Partisan lean
- R+36
- Polls
- 9in our database
Risch is very likely to win: Risch wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Achilles (D)
1%
chance of winning
Risch (R)
99%
- Average margin
- R+21.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+32 to R+10
- Partisan lean
- R+36
- Polls
- 9in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.48 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 4.65 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 4.65 |
Polls
All 9 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Achilles | Risch | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peak Insights for Risch's campaignR-sponsored | Sep 28–Sep 30 | 500 LV | 24 | 49 | R+25 | R+22.9 |
| Advanced Targeting Research | Sep 13–Sep 16 | 700 RV | 50 | 39 | D+11 | D+6.8 |
| Advanced Targeting Research | Sep 13–Sep 16 | 700 RV | 46 | 39 | D+7 | D+6.8 |
| Peak Insights for Risch's campaignR-sponsored | Aug 11–Aug 13 | 500 LV | 18 | 52 | R+34 | R+36.3 |
| The Bullfinch Group for Achilles's campaign | Aug 4–Aug 7 | 608 LV | 38 | 33 | D+5 | D+2.2 |
| The Bullfinch Group for Achilles's campaign | Aug 4–Aug 7 | 608 LV | 30 | 34 | R+4 | D+2.2 |
| Change Research for John Stegner, Independent candidate for governorD-sponsored | Jul 28–Jul 30 | 1,213 LV | 21 | 45 | R+24 | R+41.1 |
| The Bullfinch Group for Achilles's campaign | May 29–Jun 1 | 774 RV | 36 | 40 | R+4 | |
| Public Policy Polling for Achilles's campaign | Mar 16–Mar 17 | 639 RV | 34 | 48 | R+14 | R+15.2 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 30, 2026.
The state
Lean R+36: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 1,934,262
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 32%
- White, no degree
- 54%of adults
- White 79%
- Hispanic 14%
- Black 1%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 6%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
880,218 two-party votes · R+37.5 · R+36.0 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.8%
Kamala Harris (D)31.2%
2020
859,827 votes · R+30.6✓ Jim Risch (R)62.6%
Paulette Jordan (D)33.2%
Natalie M Fleming (I)2.9%
Ray J. Writz (CST)1.2%
2020 President Vote in this state
841,140 two-party votes · R+31.8 · R+36.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)65.9%
Joe Biden (D)34.1%
2016 President Vote in this state
598,820 two-party votes · R+36.6 · R+38.8 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)68.3%
Hillary Clinton (D)31.7%
2014
437,170 votes · R+30.7✓ James E. Risch (R)65.3%
Nels Mitchell (D)34.7%
2008
644,777 votes · R+25.7✓ Jim Risch (R)57.7%
Larry Larocco (D)34.1%
Rex Rammell (I)5.4%
Kent A. Marmon (L)1.5%
Pro-Life (I)1.3%
2002
408,544 votes · R+33.4✓ Larry E. Craig (R)65.2%
Alan Blinken (D)32.5%
Donovan Bramwell (L)2.3%