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Forecast updates · Forecast as of Oct 1

Thursday, October 1, 2026

Calls changed
15
Party changes
9
New polls
38
Compared with
Sep 30

Top line

The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Sep 30. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.

Senate

Chance of a Senate majority

D 72%no change

D50%RSep 1Oct 1

Expected seats 52.0 D · 48.0 R (0 D since Sep 30)

D 72%, 72% Democratic.

D 67%no change

D50%RSep 1Oct 1

Expected seats 51.7 D · 48.3 R (−0.1 D since Sep 30)

D 67%, 67% Democratic.

House

Chance of a House majority

D 95%▼ R +1

D50%RSep 1Oct 1

Expected seats 235.6 D · 199.4 R (−0.6 D since Sep 30)

D 95%, 95% Democratic.

D 90%▼ R +1

D50%RSep 1Oct 1

Expected seats 235.5 D · 199.5 R (−0.9 D since Sep 30)

D 90%, 90% Democratic.

Governors

Chance of a majority of governorships

D 69%no change

D50%RSep 1Oct 1

Expected seats 26.9 D · 23.1 R (0 D since Sep 30)

D 69%, 69% Democratic.

D 74%no change

D50%RSep 1Oct 1

Expected seats 27.3 D · 22.7 R (−0.1 D since Sep 30)

D 74%, 74% Democratic.

Generic ballot (likely voters)

D+8.7R +0.2

Forecast environment

D+8.8R +0.2

Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.

Major changes

Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).

Each track runs from Solid R (left) to Solid D (right): Sep 30 → now.

Senate races

  1. U.S. Senate in AlaskaLean R → Toss-up
  2. U.S. Senate in Florida (special)Lean R → Likely R
  3. U.S. Senate in IowaLean D → Toss-up

Trifectas

States whose trifecta odds changed category
StateBeforeAfter
Colorado · D trifecta nowD trifecta 95% · R trifecta <1%D trifecta 95% · R trifecta <1%
WisconsinD trifecta 65% · R trifecta 2%D trifecta 59% · R trifecta 2%

Every call change

15 races changed rating or favored party since Sep 30 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.

Senate 3 changes

  1. U.S. Senate in AlaskaLean R → Toss-up
  2. U.S. Senate in Florida (special)Lean R → Likely R
  3. U.S. Senate in IowaLean D → Toss-up

Statewide offices 2 changes

  1. Nevada AuditorNow R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
  2. Florida TreasurerLean R → Likely R

House 2 changes

  1. WI-1Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
  2. AZ-1Likely D → Lean D

State legislatures 8 changes in 8 chambers

Connecticut House of Representatives · 1 change
  1. HD-112Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Florida House of Representatives · 1 change
  1. HD-87Lean D → Toss-up
Maine House of Representatives · 1 change
  1. HD-86Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Michigan State Senate · 1 change
  1. SD-32Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
New York State Assembly · 1 change
  1. AD-112Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Pennsylvania House of Representatives · 1 change
  1. HD-44Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Utah House of Representatives · 1 change
  1. HD-59Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Wisconsin State Assembly · 1 change
  1. AD-82Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up

New polls

38 polls new since Sep 30, in 28 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.

New polls
RacePollsterDatesSampleResultMarginSource
U.S. Senate in AlaskaNew York Times/Siena UniversitySep 24–Oct 1504 LVD 50 · R 43D+7nytimes.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Florida (special)Mason-DixonSep 28–Oct 1625 LVD 40 · R 50R+10s3.documentcloud.org ↗
U.S. Senate in IowaNew York Times/Siena UniversitySep 22–Oct 1606 LVD 47 · R 48R+1nytimes.com ↗
U.S. Senate in IllinoisPublic Policy Polling for Chicago News WeeklyD sponsorSep 30–Oct 1569 LVD 49 · R 36D+13cnwmedia.com ↗
U.S. Senate in KansasTrafalgar GroupR sponsorSep 29–Oct 11,095 LVD 44 · R 44Eventhetrafalgargroup.org ↗
U.S. Senate in MaineTrafalgar GroupR sponsorSep 29–Oct 11,091 LVD 46 · R 46Eventhetrafalgargroup.org ↗
U.S. Senate in MaineCBS News/YouGovSep 23–Oct 11,136 LVD 50 · R 50Evencbsnews.com ↗
U.S. Senate in MichiganMitchell Research & CommunicationsOct 1682 LVD 46 · R 41D+5static1.squarespace.com ↗
U.S. Senate in MichiganZ to A Research for Rust Belt Rising, which supports DemocratsD sponsorSep 28–Oct 1483 LVD 49 · R 42D+7x.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Ohio (special)New York Times/Siena UniversitySep 22–Oct 1616 LVD 49 · R 46D+3nytimes.com ↗
Alaska GovernorNew York Times/Siena UniversitySep 24–Oct 1504 LVD 46 · R 17D+29nytimes.com ↗
Alaska GovernorNew York Times/Siena UniversitySep 24–Oct 1504 LVD 52 · R 48D+4nytimes.com ↗
Show 26 more
New polls (continued)
RacePollsterDatesSampleResultMarginSource
Alaska GovernorNew York Times/Siena UniversitySep 24–Oct 1504 LVD 40 · R 14D+26nytimes.com ↗
California GovernorManhattan InstituteR sponsorSep 24–Oct 11,000 LVD 57 · R 39D+18manhattan.institute ↗
Florida GovernorMason-DixonSep 28–Oct 1625 LVD 41 · R 48R+7s3.documentcloud.org ↗
Iowa GovernorNew York Times/Siena UniversitySep 22–Oct 1606 LVD 52 · R 41D+11nytimes.com ↗
Illinois GovernorPublic Policy Polling for Chicago News WeeklyD sponsorSep 30–Oct 1569 LVD 54 · R 34D+20cnwmedia.com ↗
Maine GovernorCBS/YouGovSep 23–Oct 11,133 LVD 56 · R 44D+12cbsnews.com ↗
Michigan GovernorMitchell Research & CommunicationsOct 1682 LVD 46 · R 39D+7static1.squarespace.com ↗
Michigan GovernorZ to A Research for Rust Belt Rising, which supports DemocratsD sponsorSep 28–Oct 1483 LVD 50 · R 40D+10x.com ↗
Ohio GovernorNew York Times/Siena UniversitySep 22–Oct 1616 LVD 49 · R 45D+4nytimes.com ↗
Oregon GovernorDHM Research for The OregonianSep 24–Oct 1549 LVD 46 · R 44D+2oregonlive.com ↗
Pennsylvania GovernorZ to A Research for Rust Belt Rising, which supports DemocratsD sponsorSep 28–Oct 1630 LVD 53 · R 34D+19x.com ↗
Texas GovernorNew York Times/Siena UniversitySep 22–Oct 1615 LVD 49 · R 46D+3nytimes.com ↗
Wisconsin GovernorZ to A Research for Rust Belt Rising, which supports DemocratsD sponsorSep 28–Oct 1662 LVD 49 · R 44D+5x.com ↗
Illinois Attorney GeneralPublic Policy Polling for Chicago News WeeklySep 30–Oct 1569 LVD 52 · R 38D+14cnwmedia.com ↗
Illinois Secretary of StatePublic Policy Polling for Chicago News WeeklySep 30–Oct 1569 LVD 55 · R 37D+18cnwmedia.com ↗
Alaska's at-large DistrictNew York Times/Siena UniversitySep 24–Oct 1504 LVInd. 37 · R 49R+12nytimes.com ↗
Alaska's at-large DistrictNew York Times/Siena UniversitySep 24–Oct 1504 LVInd. 47 · R 53R+6nytimes.com ↗
Alaska's at-large DistrictNew York Times/Siena UniversitySep 24–Oct 1504 LVInd. 35 · R 47R+12nytimes.com ↗
Arizona's 1st DistrictFirstStrategic Communications and Public AffairsOct 1400 LVD 44 · R 42D+2x.com ↗
South Carolina's 1st Districtco/efficient for Thank You For Your Attention To This Matter PAC, which supports HoneycuttR sponsorSep 30–Oct 1837 LVD 40 · R 46R+6coefficient.org ↗
Tennessee's 5th DistrictImpact Research for Molder's campaignD sponsorSep 28–Oct 1552 LVD 41 · R 46R+5tennessean.com ↗
Wisconsin's 1st DistrictImpact Research for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD sponsorSep 28–Oct 1500 LVD 48 · R 47D+1bsky.app ↗
West Virginia Senate District 8State NavigateSep 30–Oct 11,002 LVD 40 · R 46R+6statenavigate.org ↗
Generic congressional ballotCenterline Research & StrategySep 26–Oct 1930 LVD 50 · R 42D+8centerliners.com ↗
Generic congressional ballotI&I/TIPP InsightsR sponsorSep 29–Oct 11,328 RVD 46 · R 42D+4issuesinsights.com ↗
Presidential approvalCenterline Research & StrategySep 26–Oct 11,239 RVApprove 35 · Disapprove 64−29 netcenterliners.com ↗

Fundraising

The FEC file this comparison needs was not archived for one of the two dates.

State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.

Candidates

No race changed its modeled candidates since Sep 30.