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Alabama · 2026 forecast · Southeast region · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Alabama in 2026
Alabama elects a U.S. senator and a governor, a lieutenant governor, an attorney general, a secretary of state, a treasurer, an auditor, all 7 members of the U.S. House, all 35 members of the State Senate and all 105 members of the House of Representatives on November 3, 2026.
On the November 3 ballot: U.S. Senate · Governor · 5 statewide offices · 7 U.S. House seats · 2 legislative chambers.
- U.S. Senate
- R >99%R 99%Everett Wess vs. Barry Moore
- Governor
- R 93%R 92%Doug Jones vs. Tommy Tuberville
- U.S. House
- 1.2 D · 5.8 R1.2 D · 5.8 RExpected seats of 7
- Alabama State Senate
- R >99%R >99%Chance of control · 35 of 35 seats up
- Alabama House of Representatives
- R >99%R >99%Chance of control · 105 of 105 seats up
- Lieutenant Governor
- R >99%R 97%Phillip Ensler vs. John Wahl
- Attorney General
- R >99%R 98%Jeff McLaughlin vs. Katherine Robertson
- Secretary of State
- R >99%R 97%Wayne Rogers vs. Caroleene Dobson
- Treasurer
- R >99%R 97%Rosilyn Houston vs. Young Boozer
- Auditor
- R >99%R 97%Violet Edwards vs. Andrew Sorrell
U.S. House districts · Alabama
- Solid D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Solid R
- Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)
Trifecta
Republican trifecta now
Republicans hold the governorship and every legislative chamber. A trifecta is one party holding all of them.
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- <1%
- Divided
- 7%
- Rep. trifecta
- 93%
The Republican trifecta most likely continues (93%); 7% chance it is broken.
After the election
- Dem. trifecta
- <1%
- Divided
- 8%
- Rep. trifecta
- 92%
The Republican trifecta most likely continues (92%); 8% chance it is broken.
Chances come from the same simulations as the races, so outcomes are correlated. A governorship or chamber not on the ballot this year keeps its current party. Source: 99chambers forecast, run 56, updated Oct 16, 2026.
Statewide races
Every race decided by the whole state. Statewide offices nationwide.
Statewide offices
Lieutenant Governor
● Phillip Ensler● John Wahl
Attorney General
● Jeff McLaughlin● Katherine Robertson
Secretary of State
● Wayne Rogers● Caroleene Dobson
Treasurer
● Rosilyn Houston● Young BoozerINC
Auditor
● Violet Edwards● Andrew SorrellINC
Ratings
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans).
The Alabama environment
The environment Alabama's governor, statewide and legislative races run in, read from their polls against what the fundamentals expect. Its federal races run in the national environment.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast, national House vote
- Alabama state offices vs. the nation
- −0.1± 4.0 (80% range) · 3 polled state races
- Alabama state-office environment
- D+9.40.1 pts more Republican than the nation
The polled state races behind it
Over time
Each polled race's average, minus what the fundamentals expect at the national environment, in national-environment points (a dot right of center runs more Democratic than expected). Readings are weighted by poll precision and office (governor most, then other statewide races, the Senate, legislative and House races), centered on the national average and pulled toward zero, so a thinly polled state stays near the nation. Governor, statewide and legislative races use the Alabama environment in full; Senate and House races 0% of it. Each race's own polls are left out of the environment it uses.
U.S. House
7 districts. The national House forecast.
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it.
Birmingham
7 races
| District | Candidates | Chance of winning (D · R) | Avg. margin | Rating | Lean | Polls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL-1 | ● Clyde Jones Jr.● Jerry Carl | R+26.3R+27.8 | R+35 | — | ||
| AL-2R flipR flip | ● Shomari FiguresINC● Rhett Marques | R+5.0R+5.3 | R+13 | 3 | ||
| AL-3 | ● Lee McInnis● Mike RogersINC | R+39.4R+39.1 | R+45 | — | ||
| AL-4 | ● Amanda Pusczek● Robert AderholtINC | R+57.9R+58.8 | R+65 | — | ||
| AL-5 | ● Andrew Sneed● Dale StrongINC | R+19.6R+20.9 | R+28 | — | ||
| AL-6 | ● Maurice Mercer● Gary PalmerINC | R+26.9R+27.5 | R+35 | — | ||
| AL-7 | ● Terri SewellINC● Ammie Akin | D+27.1D+26.3 | D+19 | — |
Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).
Alabama Legislature
Chance of control after November 3, and how each chamber's races rate.
Alabama State Senate
Dem.
<1%
Rep.
>99%
Avg. 9 D – 26 R seats · 18 for control · R supermajority now: >99% it holds
Dem.
<1%
Rep.
>99%
Avg. 9 D – 26 R seats · 18 for control · R supermajority now: >99% it holds
Alabama State Senate ratings
No seat is projected to change parties. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).
1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D.
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it. risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.
Alabama House of Representatives
Dem.
<1%
Rep.
>99%
Avg. 29 D – 76 R seats · 53 for control · R supermajority now: >99% it holds
Dem.
<1%
Rep.
>99%
Avg. 30 D – 76 R seats · 53 for control · R supermajority now: >99% it holds
Alabama House of Representatives ratings
No seat is projected to change parties.
No seat is projected to change parties. 1 more is a toss-up that could change parties (flip risk).
Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties. Underlined: two candidates of one party in November. Faded: no major-party opponent. Every race.
Closest legislative races
How Alabama votes
Election rules that differ from the usual party primary and plurality win.