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Forecast updates · Forecast as of Oct 8

Thursday, October 8, 2026

Calls changed
23
Party changes
4
New polls
27
Compared with
Oct 7

Top line

The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Oct 7. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.

Senate

Chance of a Senate majority

D 74%no change

D50%RSep 1Oct 8

Expected seats 52.1 D · 47.9 R (0 D since Oct 7)

D 74%, 74% Democratic.

D 69%▼ R +1

D50%RSep 1Oct 8

Expected seats 51.9 D · 48.1 R (0 D since Oct 7)

D 69%, 69% Democratic.

House

Chance of a House majority

D 96%no change

D50%RSep 1Oct 8

Expected seats 237.0 D · 198.0 R (−0.1 D since Oct 7)

D 96%, 96% Democratic.

D 92%no change

D50%RSep 1Oct 8

Expected seats 237.5 D · 197.5 R (+0.4 D since Oct 7)

D 92%, 92% Democratic.

Governors

Chance of a majority of governorships

D 70%no change

D50%RSep 1Oct 8

Expected seats 26.9 D · 23.1 R (0 D since Oct 7)

D 70%, 70% Democratic.

D 75%▲ D +1

D50%RSep 1Oct 8

Expected seats 27.5 D · 22.5 R (+0.1 D since Oct 7)

D 75%, 75% Democratic.

Generic ballot (likely voters)

D+8.8no change

Forecast environment

D+9.1R +0.1

Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.

Major changes

Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).

Each track runs from Solid R (left) to Solid D (right): Oct 7 → now.

Governor races

  1. South Dakota GovernorLikely R → Solid R
  2. Arizona GovernorLikely D → Solid D

State legislative chambers

  1. Arizona House of RepresentativesToss-up → Lean D
  2. Arizona State SenateLean R → Toss-up

Trifectas

States whose trifecta odds changed category
StateBeforeAfter
ArizonaD trifecta 26% · R trifecta 5%D trifecta 36% · R trifecta 2%
NevadaD trifecta 40% · R trifecta <1%D trifecta 41% · R trifecta <1%
South Dakota · R trifecta nowD trifecta <1% · R trifecta 91%D trifecta <1% · R trifecta 99%
WisconsinD trifecta 60% · R trifecta 2%D trifecta 60% · R trifecta 2%

Every call change

23 races changed rating or favored party since Oct 7 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.

Governors 2 changes

  1. South Dakota GovernorLikely R → Solid R
  2. Arizona GovernorLikely D → Solid D

Statewide offices 3 changes

  1. Nevada AuditorNow D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
  2. Arizona Secretary of StateLikely D → Solid D
  3. Nevada Lieutenant GovernorToss-up → Lean D

State legislatures 18 changes in 8 chambers

Arizona House of Representatives · 3 changes
  1. LD-13Toss-up → Lean D
  2. LD-27Likely R → Lean R
  3. LD-4Lean R → Toss-up
Arizona State Senate · 3 changes
  1. LD-2Lean R → Toss-up
  2. LD-13Toss-up → Lean D
  3. LD-29Solid R → Likely R
Connecticut House of Representatives · 1 change
  1. HD-108Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Florida State Senate · 1 change
  1. SD-38Lean R → Toss-up
Illinois House of Representatives · 1 change
  1. RD-48Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Montana House of Representatives · 1 change
  1. HD-23Likely R → Lean R
Rhode Island House of Representatives · 2 changes
  1. HD-53Toss-up → Lean R
  2. HD-44Likely D → Lean D
South Dakota House of Representatives · 6 changes
  1. LD-14Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
  2. LD-12Toss-up → Lean R
  3. LD-28AToss-up → Lean R
  4. LD-13Lean R → Likely R
  5. LD-3Likely R → Solid R
  6. LD-1Likely R → Solid R

New polls

27 polls new since Oct 7, in 21 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.

New polls
RacePollsterDatesSampleResultMarginSource
U.S. Senate in MaineRasmussen ReportsR sponsorOct 5–Oct 8804 LVD 49 · R 47D+2rasmussenreports.com ↗
U.S. Senate in MichiganThe Tyson Group for Alliance for a Better FutureR sponsorOct 6–Oct 8600 LVD 44 · R 46R+2betterfutureai.org ↗
U.S. Senate in MontanaConcord Public Opinion Partners for Bodnar's campaignOct 6–Oct 8405 LVInd. 37 · R 35D+2static1.squarespace.com ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaElon University/YouGovSep 29–Oct 8561 LVD 52 · R 39D+13eloncdn.blob.core.windows.net ↗
U.S. Senate in Rhode IslandEmbold Research for the Pell Center for International Relations and Public Policy at Salve Regina UniversityOct 5–Oct 8815 LVD 55 · R 32D+23salve.edu ↗
U.S. Senate in South CarolinaRasmussen ReportsR sponsorOct 5–Oct 8837 LVD 45 · R 49R+4rasmussenreports.com ↗
U.S. Senate in South DakotaConcord Public Opinion Partners for Democrats for Education ReformD sponsorOct 6–Oct 8400 LVD 43 · R 42D+1documentcloud.org ↗
U.S. Senate in TexasTrafalgar GroupR sponsorOct 6–Oct 81,086 LVD 47 · R 44D+3thetrafalgargroup.org ↗
U.S. Senate in TexasReconMR/Siena UniversityOct 5–Oct 8617 LVD 48 · R 44D+4reconmr.com ↗
Arizona GovernorGrayHouse for the campaign of Elijah Norton, the Republican candidate running for state treasurerR sponsorOct 6–Oct 8550 LVD 50 · R 44D+6grayhouse.com ↗
Arizona GovernorHighGround, Inc.Oct 6–Oct 8400 LVD 51 · R 34D+17azhighground.com ↗
Rhode Island GovernorEmbold Research for Pell Center for International Relations and Public PolicyOct 5–Oct 8815 LVD 39 · R 17D+22salve.edu ↗
Show 15 more
New polls (continued)
RacePollsterDatesSampleResultMarginSource
South Dakota GovernorConcord Public Opinion Partners for Democrats for Education ReformD sponsorOct 6–Oct 8400 LVD 38 · R 48R+10documentcloud.org ↗
Texas GovernorGBAO for Hinojosa's campaignD sponsorOct 5–Oct 8800 LVD 47 · R 45D+2ginafortexas.com ↗
Texas GovernorReconMR/Siena UniversityOct 5–Oct 8617 LVD 47 · R 48R+1reconmr.com ↗
Rhode Island Lieutenant GovernorEmbold Research for Pell Center for International Relations and Public PolicyOct 5–Oct 8815 LVD 43 · R 44R+1salve.edu ↗
Arizona Attorney GeneralHighGround, Inc.Oct 6–Oct 8400 LVD 51 · R 37D+14azhighground.com ↗
Arizona Attorney GeneralGrayhouse for Elijah Norton's campaign, the Republican candidate running for 2026 Arizona State Treasurer electionR sponsorOct 6–Oct 8550 LVD 48 · R 46D+2grayhouse.com ↗
Rhode Island Attorney GeneralEmbold Research for Pell Center for International Relations and Public PolicyOct 5–Oct 8815 LVD 52 · R 34D+18salve.edu ↗
Arizona Secretary of StateHighGround, Inc.Oct 6–Oct 8400 LVD 45 · R 34D+11azhighground.com ↗
Arizona Secretary of StateGrayhouse for Elijah Norton's campaign, the Republican candidate running for 2026 Arizona State Treasurer electionR sponsorOct 6–Oct 8550 LVD 48 · R 42D+6grayhouse.com ↗
Arizona TreasurerHighGround, Inc.Oct 6–Oct 8400 LVD 45 · R 35D+10azhighground.com ↗
Arizona TreasurerGrayhouse for Norton's campaignR sponsorOct 6–Oct 8550 LVD 41 · R 43R+2grayhouse.com ↗
North Carolina's 1st Districtco/efficient for Buckout's campaignR sponsorOct 6–Oct 8623 LVD 42 · R 43R+1politico.com ↗
Rhode Island's 1st DistrictEmbold Research for Pell Center for International Relations and Public PolicyOct 5–Oct 8363 LVD 52 · R 33D+19salve.edu ↗
Rhode Island's 2nd DistrictEmbold Research for Pell Center for International Relations and Public PolicyOct 5–Oct 8417 LVD 52 · R 39D+13salve.edu ↗
Florida Senate District 38Impact ResearchD sponsorOct 5–Oct 8400 LVD 40 · R 40Evenfloridapolitics.com ↗

Fundraising

The FEC file this comparison needs was not archived for one of the two dates.

State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.

Candidates

No race changed its modeled candidates since Oct 7.