99chambers

Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Forecast updates · Forecast as of Oct 11

Sunday, October 11, 2026

Calls changed
6
Party changes
4
New polls
22
New FEC totals
5
Compared with
Oct 10

Top line

The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Oct 10. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.

Senate

Chance of a Senate majority

D 73%no change

D50%ROct 10Oct 11

Expected seats 52.1 D · 47.9 R (0 D since Oct 10)

D 73%, 73% Democratic.

D 70%no change

D50%ROct 10Oct 11

Expected seats 52.0 D · 48.0 R (0 D since Oct 10)

D 70%, 70% Democratic.

House

Chance of a House majority

D 97%no change

D50%ROct 10Oct 11

Expected seats 237.9 D · 197.1 R (−0.2 D since Oct 10)

D 97%, 97% Democratic.

D 93%no change

D50%ROct 10Oct 11

Expected seats 238.5 D · 196.5 R (+0.2 D since Oct 10)

D 93%, 93% Democratic.

Governors

Chance of a majority of governorships

D 72%no change

D50%ROct 10Oct 11

Expected seats 27.1 D · 22.9 R (0 D since Oct 10)

D 72%, 72% Democratic.

D 77%no change

D50%ROct 10Oct 11

Expected seats 27.6 D · 22.4 R (0 D since Oct 10)

D 77%, 77% Democratic.

Generic ballot (likely voters)

D+8.9R +0.1

Forecast environment

D+9.4R +0.1

Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.

Major changes

Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).

No Senate or governor race, state legislative chamber or trifecta changed its rating or favored party since Oct 10.

Every call change

6 races changed rating or favored party since Oct 10 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.

State legislatures 5 changes in 5 chambers

Connecticut State Senate · 1 change
  1. SD-30Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Indiana House of Representatives · 1 change
  1. HD-62Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Iowa House of Representatives · 1 change
  1. HD-46Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Minnesota State Senate · 1 change
  1. SD-58Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Rhode Island House of Representatives · 1 change
  1. HD-15Lean D → Likely D

New polls

22 polls new since Oct 10, in 15 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.

New polls
RacePollsterDatesSampleResultMargin
U.S. Senate in IowaMarist UniversityOct 8–Oct 11— LVD 48 · R 45D+3
U.S. Senate in IowaMarist UniversityOct 8–Oct 111,100 RVD 51 · R 44D+7
U.S. Senate in MaineSuffolk UniversityOct 8–Oct 11500 LVD 49 · R 47D+2
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaSurveyUSA for WRAL-TV and WSOC-TVOct 7–Oct 11643 LVD 54 · R 40D+14
U.S. Senate in Rhode IslandEmerson College/WPRI-TVOct 8–Oct 11800 LVD 59 · R 25D+34
U.S. Senate in TexasQuantus InsightsOct 9–Oct 11854 LVD 47 · R 47Even
U.S. Senate in TexasMarist UniversityOct 8–Oct 11— LVD 47 · R 45D+2
U.S. Senate in TexasMarist UniversityOct 8–Oct 111,196 RVD 48 · R 44D+4
Florida GovernorFabrizio, Lee & Associates for Donalds' campaignR sponsorOct 8–Oct 111,200 LVD 43 · R 49R+6
Iowa GovernorMarist UniversityOct 8–Oct 11— LVD 52 · R 45D+7
Iowa GovernorMarist UniversityOct 8–Oct 111,100 RVD 54 · R 43D+11
Maine GovernorSuffolk UniversityOct 8–Oct 11500 LVD 49 · R 38D+11
Show 10 more
New polls (continued)
RacePollsterDatesSampleResultMargin
Rhode Island GovernorEmerson College/WPRI-TVOct 8–Oct 11800 LVD 44 · R 10D+34
Rhode Island GovernorEmerson College/WPRI-TVOct 8–Oct 11800 LVD 48 · R 12D+36
Texas GovernorMarist UniversityOct 8–Oct 11— LVD 45 · R 49R+4
Texas GovernorMarist UniversityOct 8–Oct 111,196 RVD 47 · R 48R+1
Rhode Island Lieutenant GovernorEmerson College/WPRI-TVOct 8–Oct 11800 LVD 44 · R 45R+1
Indiana Secretary of StateBellwether ResearchOct 8–Oct 11896 LVD 43 · R 35D+8
Indiana TreasurerBellwether ResearchOct 8–Oct 11896 LVD 38 · R 43R+5
Rhode Island's 1st DistrictEmerson College/WPRI-TVOct 8–Oct 11394 LVD 54 · R 26D+28
Rhode Island's 2nd DistrictEmerson College/WPRI-TVOct 8–Oct 11406 LVD 55 · R 39D+16
Generic congressional ballotMorning ConsultOct 5–Oct 1117,654 LVD 50 · R 43D+7

Fundraising

5 federal nominees or incumbents with new FEC totals since Oct 10. Two-year totals (2025–26) of their authorized committees.

New fundraising totals
CandidateRaceRaisedNewCash on handThrough
Edwin Feller RepublicanWashington's 2nd District$8,977first report$6,732Sep 30
Houston Brignano RepublicanCalifornia's 36th District$11,622+$6,483$912Sep 30 (was Jun 30)
Damon Galdo RepublicanNew Jersey's 1st District$15,873+$4,748$2,021Sep 30 (was Jun 30)
Mitch Clemmons RepublicanCalifornia's 41st District$5,829+$4,120$4,262Sep 30 (was Jun 30)
Mark Nair DemocraticTexas's 13th District$102,243+$347$14,017Jun 30

State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes nightly on race pages but is not compared day to day.

Candidates

No race changed its modeled candidates since Oct 10.