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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Alaska › U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

U.S. Senate in Alaska

RCVTop four

Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (54% chance it changes parties).

A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.

Peltola (D)
54%
chance of winning
Sullivan (R)
46%
Average margin
D+0.5
80% of outcomes
R+7 to D+8
Partisan lean
R+13
Polls
34in our database

Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (56% chance it changes parties).

A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.

Peltola (D)
56%
chance of winning
Sullivan (R)
44%
Average margin
D+0.9
80% of outcomes
R+7 to D+9
Partisan lean
R+13
Polls
34in our database

Range of outcomes

D+0.5R+15R+10R+5EvenD+5D+10D+15
D+0.9R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20

How this race is decided

Top-four primary

All candidates run in one primary regardless of party; the four with the most votes advance to November.

Ranked-choice voting

Voters rank the finalists. If nobody has a majority of first choices, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to each voter's next choice. The forecast models the final two-candidate round.

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Peltola 54%Sullivan 46%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Peltola 56%Sullivan 44%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

Democratic

Mary Peltola

Former U.S. representative from Alaska's at-large congressional district (2022–2025)

Experience
Statewide office or Congress
Raised
$32.6M
From individuals
$28.8M
Spent
$29.5M
Cash on hand
$3.2M

Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.

Profile and career · Wikipedia

Republican

Dan J. Sullivan

Former U.S. Forest Service employee (no relation to the incumbent)

Experience
No elected office
Raised
$30.2K
From individuals
$19.8K
Spent
$26.8K
Cash on hand
$3.5K

Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.

Profile and career

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by the national and state moodR+4.2Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceR+6.3Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Alaska and look-alikeplacesR+3.7Polling average24 polls, latest Oct 15D+1.6Horizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayD+0.5Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayD+0.9

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)-1
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)-0.22
Elected-experience edge0
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation2.5
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation2.5

Polls

R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40Avg. D+1.6Jul 27Nov 3
All 34 polls
PollsterDatesSamplePeltolaSullivanMarginAdjusted
Public Policy PollingD-sponsoredOct 14–Oct 15578 RV4847D+1D+1.3
InsiderAdvantageR-sponsoredOct 9–Oct 101,200 LV5048D+2D+3.1
InsiderAdvantageR-sponsoredOct 9–Oct 101,200 LV482D+46D+3.1
Alaska Survey ResearchOct 1–Oct 31,512 LV475D+42D+1.0
Alaska Survey ResearchOct 1–Oct 31,512 LV5149D+2D+1.0
New York Times/Siena UniversitySep 24–Oct 1504 LV5043D+7D+7.9
Quantus InsightsR-sponsoredSep 28–Sep 30758 LV4646EvenR+0.6
Quantus InsightsR-sponsoredSep 28–Sep 30758 LV4747EvenR+0.6
Quantus InsightsR-sponsoredSep 28–Sep 30758 LV5050EvenR+0.6
Trafalgar GroupR-sponsoredSep 22–Sep 241,079 LV4647R+1
co/efficientR-sponsoredSep 14–Sep 17799 LV4648R+2
co/efficientR-sponsoredSep 14–Sep 17799 LV4649R+3
Rasmussen ReportsR-sponsoredSep 13–Sep 141,188 LV3939Even
Alaska Survey ResearchSep 10–Sep 121,352 LV4844D+4D+3.4
Alaska Survey ResearchSep 10–Sep 121,352 LV5248D+4D+3.4
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARPSep 8–Sep 11800 LV5043D+7
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARPSep 8–Sep 11800 LV5347D+6
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARPSep 8–Sep 11800 LV4641D+5
Alaska Survey ResearchAug 20–Aug 231,495 LV5149D+2
Alaska Survey ResearchAug 2–Aug 51,371 LV5149D+2
Data for ProgressD-sponsoredJul 28–Aug 4578 LV4943D+6
Data for ProgressD-sponsoredJul 28–Aug 4578 LV5248D+4
Data for ProgressD-sponsoredJul 28–Aug 4605 LV4541D+4
New York Times/Siena UniversityJun 15–Jun 29593 LV4547R+2
Alaska Survey ResearchJun 4–Jun 71,393 LV4944D+5
Alaska Survey ResearchMay 14–May 171,401 LV4844D+4
Alaska Survey ResearchApr 16–Apr 191,946 LV4943D+6
Alaska Survey ResearchMar 19–Mar 221,590 LV4944D+5
Public Policy PollingD-sponsoredJan 16–Jan 17611 V4947D+2
Alaska Survey ResearchJan 8–Jan 111,988 LV4846D+2
Data for ProgressD-sponsoredOct 17–Oct 23823 LV4645D+1
Alaska Survey ResearchOct 10–Oct 151,708 LV4846D+2
Alaska Survey ResearchJul 29–Aug 11,623 LV4247R+5
Data for ProgressD-sponsoredJul 21–Jul 27678 LV4546R+1

Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 15, 2026.

The state

Lean R+13: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentR+16.8R+19.0 vs. nation2020 presidentR+10.5R+15.1 vs. nation2024 presidentR+13.7R+12.2 vs. nation

Who lives here

Population
735,706
Adults with a B.A.+
32%
White, no degree
39%of adults
  • White 58%
  • Hispanic 7%
  • Black 3%
  • Asian 6%
  • Other / multiracial 26%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

2024 President Vote in this state

324,484 two-party votes · R+13.7 · R+12.2 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)56.8%
Kamala Harris (D)43.2%

2020

353,986 votes · R+13.4
✓ Dan Sullivan (R)54.0%
Al Gross (D)41.3%
John Wayne Howe (AIP)4.7%

2020 President Vote in this state

343,729 two-party votes · R+10.5 · R+15.1 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)55.3%
Joe Biden (D)44.7%

2016 President Vote in this state

279,841 two-party votes · R+16.8 · R+19.0 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)58.4%
Hillary Clinton (D)41.6%

2014

281,024 votes · R+2.3
✓ Dan Sullivan (R)48.2%
Mark Begich (D)46.1%
Mark S. Fish (L)3.7%
Ted Gianoutsos (I)2.0%

2008

316,646 votes · D+1.3
✓ Mark Begich (D)47.9%
Ted Stevens (R)46.7%
Bob Bird (AIP)4.2%
Fredrick D. "david" Haase (L)0.8%

2002

229,257 votes · R+76.3
✓ Ted Stevens (R)78.3%
Frank Vondersaar (D)10.5%
Jim Sykes (G)7.2%
Jim Dore (AIP)2.9%
Leonard Karpinski (L)1.0%

Also on the ballot in Alaska

GovernorJonathan Kreiss-TomkinsDave BronsonD flipD flip76%Dem.75%Dem.