Senate
Chance of a Senate majority
D 78%▲ D +2
Expected seats 52.5 D · 47.5 R (+0.2 D since Sep 19)
D 78%, 78% Democratic.D 71%▲ D +2
Expected seats 52.1 D · 47.9 R (+0.2 D since Sep 19)
D 71%, 71% Democratic.Forecast updates · Forecast as of Sep 20
Sunday, September 20, 2026
- Calls changed
- 13
- Party changes
- 2
- New polls
- 21
- Compared with
- Sep 19
Top line
The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Sep 19. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
House
Chance of a House majority
D 95%▲ D +1
Expected seats 235.7 D · 199.3 R (+0.8 D since Sep 19)
D 95%, 95% Democratic.D 90%▲ D +1
Expected seats 236.0 D · 199.0 R (+0.9 D since Sep 19)
D 90%, 90% Democratic.Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
D 73%▲ D +3
Expected seats 27.1 D · 22.9 R (+0.3 D since Sep 19)
D 73%, 73% Democratic.D 77%▲ D +3
Expected seats 27.6 D · 22.4 R (+0.2 D since Sep 19)
D 77%, 77% Democratic.Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+8.6D +0.1
Forecast environment
D+8.9D +0.2
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.
Major changes
Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
Each track runs from Solid R (left) to Solid D (right): Sep 19 → now.
Senate races
- U.S. Senate in IowaToss-up → Lean D
- U.S. Senate in MichiganLean D → Likely D
Governor races
- Georgia GovernorNow D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
- New York GovernorLikely D → Solid D
- Michigan GovernorLikely D → Solid D
State legislative chambers
- Michigan House of RepresentativesLean D → Likely D
Trifectas
| State | Before | After |
|---|---|---|
| New York · D trifecta now | D trifecta 93% · R trifecta <1% | D trifecta 99% · R trifecta <1% |
Every call change
13 races changed rating or favored party since Sep 19 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.
Senate 2 changes
- U.S. Senate in IowaToss-up → Lean D
- U.S. Senate in MichiganLean D → Likely D
Governors 3 changes
- Georgia GovernorNow D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
- New York GovernorLikely D → Solid D
- Michigan GovernorLikely D → Solid D
New polls
21 polls new since Sep 19, in 12 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.
Show 9 more
| Race | Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma's 5th District | GBAO for Nelson's campaignD sponsor | Sep 17–Sep 20 | 500 LV | D 43 · R 48 | R+5 | oklahoman.com ↗ |
| Pennsylvania's 7th District | Franklin & Marshall College | Sep 9–Sep 20 | 357 RV | D 45 · R 40 | D+5 | storage.ghost.io ↗ |
| Pennsylvania's 10th District | Franklin & Marshall College | Sep 9–Sep 20 | 390 RV | D 47 · R 44 | D+3 | storage.ghost.io ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Morning Consult | Sep 18–Sep 20 | 18,336 LV | D 50 · R 43 | D+7 | pro-assets.morningconsult.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Reuters/Ipsos | Sep 17–Sep 20 | 979 RV | D 43 · R 35 | D+8 | ipsos.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Reuters/Ipsos | Sep 17–Sep 20 | 1,277 A | D 37 · R 29 | D+8 | ipsos.com ↗ |
| Presidential approval | Echelon Insights | Sep 17–Sep 20 | 1,002 LV | Approve 36 · Disapprove 64 | −28 net | echeloninsights.com ↗ |
| Presidential approval | Reuters/Ipsos | Sep 17–Sep 20 | 1,277 A | Approve 32 · Disapprove 66 | −34 net | ipsos.com ↗ |
| Presidential approval | American Research Group | Sep 16–Sep 20 | 1,100 A | Approve 29 · Disapprove 68 | −39 net | americanresearchgroup.com ↗ |
Fundraising
The FEC file this comparison needs was not archived for one of the two dates.
State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.
Candidates
No race changed its modeled candidates since Sep 19.