Senate
Chance of a Senate majority
D 77%no change
Expected seats 52.4 D · 47.6 R (0 D since Sep 25)
D 77%, 77% Democratic.D 71%no change
Expected seats 52.1 D · 47.9 R (0 D since Sep 25)
D 71%, 71% Democratic.Forecast updates · Forecast as of Sep 26
Saturday, September 26, 2026
- Calls changed
- 3
- Party changes
- 2
- New polls
- 18
- Compared with
- Sep 25
Top line
The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Sep 25. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
House
Chance of a House majority
D 96%no change
Expected seats 236.2 D · 198.8 R (−0.3 D since Sep 25)
D 96%, 96% Democratic.D 90%no change
Expected seats 236.1 D · 198.9 R (−0.4 D since Sep 25)
D 90%, 90% Democratic.Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
D 71%▼ R +3
Expected seats 27.0 D · 23.0 R (−0.2 D since Sep 25)
D 71%, 71% Democratic.D 75%▼ R +3
Expected seats 27.3 D · 22.7 R (−0.3 D since Sep 25)
D 75%, 75% Democratic.Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+8.9R +0.1
Forecast environment
D+9.1R +0.1
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.
Major changes
Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
Each track runs from Solid R (left) to Solid D (right): Sep 25 → now.
Governor races
- Nevada GovernorNow R favoredLean D → Toss-up
Trifectas
| State | Before | After |
|---|---|---|
| Nevada | D trifecta 62% · R trifecta <1% | D trifecta 41% · R trifecta <1% |
Every call change
3 races changed rating or favored party since Sep 25 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.
Governors 1 change
- Nevada GovernorNow R favoredLean D → Toss-up
Statewide offices 1 change
- Nevada TreasurerLikely D → Lean D
New polls
18 polls new since Sep 25, in 7 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.
Show 6 more
| Race | Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada Attorney General | Noble Predictive Insights | Sep 22–Sep 26 | 800 RV | D 42 · R 31 | D+11 | noblepredictiveinsights.com ↗ |
| Nevada Attorney General | Noble Predictive Insights | Sep 22–Sep 26 | 708 LV | D 45 · R 37 | D+8 | noblepredictiveinsights.com ↗ |
| Nevada Secretary of State | Noble Predictive Insights | Sep 22–Sep 26 | 800 RV | D 41 · R 32 | D+9 | noblepredictiveinsights.com ↗ |
| Nevada Secretary of State | Noble Predictive Insights | Sep 22–Sep 26 | 708 LV | D 44 · R 37 | D+7 | noblepredictiveinsights.com ↗ |
| Nevada Treasurer | Noble Predictive Insights | Sep 22–Sep 26 | 800 RV | D 37 · R 33 | D+4 | noblepredictiveinsights.com ↗ |
| Nevada Treasurer | Noble Predictive Insights | Sep 22–Sep 26 | 708 LV | D 40 · R 39 | D+1 | noblepredictiveinsights.com ↗ |
Fundraising
The FEC file this comparison needs was not archived for one of the two dates.
State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.
Candidates
No race changed its modeled candidates since Sep 25.