Senate
Chance of a Senate majority
D 73%▲ D +1
Expected seats 52.0 D · 48.0 R (0 D since Oct 20)
D 73%, 73% Democratic.D 70%▲ D +1
Expected seats 51.9 D · 48.1 R (+0.1 D since Oct 20)
D 70%, 70% Democratic.Forecast updates · Forecast as of Oct 21
Wednesday, October 21, 2026
- Calls changed
- 10
- Party changes
- 6
- New polls
- 49
- New FEC totals
- 34
- Compared with
- Oct 20
Top line
The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Oct 20. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
House
Chance of a House majority
D 98%▲ D +1
Expected seats 239.1 D · 195.9 R (+1.3 D since Oct 20)
D 98%, 98% Democratic.D 94%▲ D +1
Expected seats 239.5 D · 195.5 R (+1.1 D since Oct 20)
D 94%, 94% Democratic.Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
D 67%▲ D +2
Expected seats 26.7 D · 23.3 R (+0.1 D since Oct 20)
D 67%, 67% Democratic.D 74%▲ D +1
Expected seats 27.3 D · 22.7 R (+0.1 D since Oct 20)
D 74%, 74% Democratic.Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+9.3D +0.4
Forecast environment
D+9.6D +0.3
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.
Major changes
Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
Each track runs from Solid R (left) to Solid D (right): Oct 20 → now.
Senate races
- U.S. Senate in MichiganLikely D → Lean D
- U.S. Senate in South DakotaLikely R → Solid R
Governor races
- Nebraska GovernorLikely R → Lean R
Every call change
10 races changed rating or favored party since Oct 20 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.
Senate 2 changes
- U.S. Senate in MichiganLikely D → Lean D
- U.S. Senate in South DakotaLikely R → Solid R
Governors 1 change
- Nebraska GovernorLikely R → Lean R
House 4 changes
New polls
49 polls new since Oct 20, in 32 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.
Show 37 more
| Race | Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Senate in North Carolina | ActiVote | Oct 8–Oct 20 | 400 LV | D 57 · R 43 | D+14 | activote.net ↗ |
| U.S. Senate in North Carolina | Elon University/YouGov | Sep 29–Oct 8 | 561 LV | D 52 · R 39 | D+13 | eloncdn.blob.core.windows.net ↗ |
| U.S. Senate in Rhode Island | Embold Research for the Pell Center for International Relations and Public Policy at Salve Regina University | Oct 5–Oct 8 | 815 LV | D 55 · R 32 | D+23 | salve.edu ↗ |
| U.S. Senate in South Dakota | Public Opinon Strategies for Rounds' campaignR sponsor | Oct 12–Oct 16 | 500 LV | D 37 · R 54 | R+17 | x.com ↗ |
| Alaska Governor | Alaska Survey Research | Oct 15–Oct 18 | 1,568 LV | D 50 · R 12 | D+38 | x.com ↗ |
| Alaska Governor | Alaska Survey Research | Oct 15–Oct 18 | 1,568 LV | D 55 · R 45 | D+10 | x.com ↗ |
| Alaska Governor | Data for ProgressD sponsor | Oct 8–Oct 16 | 660 LV | D 49 · R 12 | D+37 | dataforprogress.org ↗ |
| Alaska Governor | Data for ProgressD sponsor | Oct 8–Oct 16 | 660 LV | D 50 · R 50 | Even | dataforprogress.org ↗ |
| Alaska Governor | Data for ProgressD sponsor | Oct 8–Oct 16 | 694 LV | D 46 · R 12 | D+34 | dataforprogress.org ↗ |
| Alabama Governor | Cygnal for Alabama Daily News and Gray Media AlabamaR sponsor | Oct 16–Oct 17 | 500 LV | D 40 · R 51 | R+11 | wbrc.com ↗ |
| Alabama Governor | The Alabama Poll | Oct 15–Oct 16 | 600 LV | D 39 · R 51 | R+12 | al.com ↗ |
| Georgia Governor | ActiVote | Oct 6–Oct 20 | 400 LV | D 48.5 · R 51.5 | R+3 | activote.net ↗ |
| Georgia Governor | University of Georgia for The Atlanta Journal-Constitution | Oct 7–Oct 15 | 1,000 LV | D 45 · R 46 | R+1 | wsbtv.com ↗ |
| Iowa Governor | co/efficientR sponsor | Oct 15–Oct 19 | 678 LV | D 49 · R 45 | D+4 | battlegrounds.coefficient.org ↗ |
| Massachusetts Governor | Suffolk University for The Boston Globe | Oct 14–Oct 18 | 500 LV | D 59 · R 36 | D+23 | suffolk.edu ↗ |
| Michigan Governor | Marist University | Oct 15–Oct 18 | — LV | D 51 · R 45 | D+6 | maristpoll.marist.edu ↗ |
| Michigan Governor | Marist University | Oct 15–Oct 18 | 1,185 RV | D 53 · R 42 | D+11 | maristpoll.marist.edu ↗ |
| Ohio Governor | ActiVote | Sep 27–Oct 19 | 400 LV | D 49 · R 51 | R+2 | activote.net ↗ |
| Oklahoma Governor | Workbench Strategy for Munson's campaignD sponsor | Oct 8–Oct 13 | 600 LV | D 45 · R 49 | R+4 | politico.com ↗ |
| Rhode Island Governor | Embold Research for Pell Center for International Relations and Public Policy | Oct 5–Oct 8 | 815 LV | D 39 · R 17 | D+22 | salve.edu ↗ |
| Tennessee Governor | Spry StrategiesR sponsor | Oct 10–Oct 15 | 635 LV | D 32 · R 44 | R+12 | spryresearch.com ↗ |
| Alabama Lieutenant Governor | The Alabama Poll | Oct 15–Oct 16 | 600 LV | D 35 · R 53 | R+18 | al.com ↗ |
| Rhode Island Lieutenant Governor | Embold Research for Pell Center for International Relations and Public Policy | Oct 5–Oct 8 | 815 LV | D 43 · R 44 | R+1 | salve.edu ↗ |
| Alabama Attorney General | The Alabama Poll | Oct 15–Oct 16 | 600 LV | D 35 · R 54 | R+19 | al.com ↗ |
| Massachusetts Attorney General | Suffolk University for The Boston Globe | Oct 14–Oct 18 | 500 LV | D 54 · R 28 | D+26 | suffolk.edu ↗ |
| Rhode Island Attorney General | Embold Research for Pell Center for International Relations and Public Policy | Oct 5–Oct 8 | 815 LV | D 52 · R 34 | D+18 | salve.edu ↗ |
| Massachusetts Auditor | Suffolk University for The Boston Globe | Oct 14–Oct 18 | 500 LV | D 62 · R — | — | suffolk.edu ↗ |
| Alaska's at-large District | Data for ProgressD sponsor | Oct 8–Oct 16 | 668 LV | Ind. 43 · R 50 | R+7 | dataforprogress.org ↗ |
| Alaska's at-large District | Data for ProgressD sponsor | Oct 8–Oct 16 | 668 LV | Ind. 50 · R 50 | Even | dataforprogress.org ↗ |
| Alaska's at-large District | Data for ProgressD sponsor | Oct 8–Oct 16 | 694 LV | Ind. 42 · R 48 | R+6 | dataforprogress.org ↗ |
| Florida's 7th District | DCCC | Oct 17–Oct 19 | 414 LV | D 45 · R 45 | Even | floridapolitics.com ↗ |
| Ohio's 10th District | DCCC for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD sponsor | Oct 12–Oct 13 | 535 LV | D 47 · R 44 | D+3 | dccc.org ↗ |
| Rhode Island's 1st District | Embold Research for Pell Center for International Relations and Public Policy | Oct 5–Oct 8 | 363 LV | D 52 · R 33 | D+19 | salve.edu ↗ |
| Rhode Island's 2nd District | Embold Research for Pell Center for International Relations and Public Policy | Oct 5–Oct 8 | 417 LV | D 52 · R 39 | D+13 | salve.edu ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Reuters/Ipsos | Oct 16–Oct 19 | 1,279 RV | D 47 · R 35 | D+12 | ipsos.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Reuters/Ipsos | Oct 16–Oct 19 | 1,679 A | D 40 · R 29 | D+11 | ipsos.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | GBAO for Third WayD sponsor | Sep 17–Sep 24 | 2,000 RV | D 50 · R 41 | D+9 | thirdway.org ↗ |
Fundraising
34 federal nominees or incumbents with new FEC totals since Oct 20. Two-year totals (2025–26) of their authorized committees.
| Candidate | Race | Raised | New | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Vincent Democratic | South Carolina's 7th District | $640,419 | +$67,421 | $70,347 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Missi Hesketh Democratic | Missouri's 7th District | $50,540 | −$60,157 | $33,543 | Jul 15 (was Oct 15) |
| LaMonica McIver Democratic | New Jersey's 10th District | $2,516,563 | +$43,439 | $897,195 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Becky Stille Democratic | Nebraska's 3rd District | $95,021 | +$39,920 | $2,359 | Sep 30 (was Jun 30) |
| Kelly Thompson Democratic | Indiana's 3rd District | $347,103 | +$38,033 | $53,981 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Alan Bradstock Democratic | Pennsylvania's 14th District | $406,026 | +$35,998 | $72,837 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Joe Hathaway Republican | New Jersey's 11th District | $837,601 | +$30,893 | $42,173 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Zoe Lofgren Democratic | California's 18th District | $1,983,394 | +$30,776 | $602,361 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Jim McGovern Democratic | Massachusetts's 2nd District | $1,013,810 | +$29,604 | $369,457 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| James Pericola Democratic | Florida's 11th District | $225,868 | +$28,579 | $35,196 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Rick Crosson Democratic | Wisconsin's 8th District | $168,412 | +$25,991 | $62,027 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Kimberly Overman Democratic | Florida's 12th District | $280,118 | +$20,184 | $29,526 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
Show 22 more
| Candidate | Race | Raised | New | Cash on hand | Through |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Rutherford Republican | Florida's 5th District | $913,650 | +$18,252 | $240,063 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Larry Thompson Republican | California's 32nd District | $66,331 | +$13,450 | $7,146 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Mike Croley Democratic | Tennessee's 6th District | $117,168 | +$13,406 | $14,342 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Kaylee Peterson Democratic | Idaho's 1st District | $279,404 | +$7,793 | $24,345 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Larry Marker Republican | U.S. Senate in New Mexico | $99,230 | +$7,219 | $88 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Mitchell Jacob Democratic | Oklahoma's 4th District | $121,500 | +$6,498 | $19,451 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Edwin Feller Republican | Washington's 2nd District | $11,338 | +$2,361 | $6,843 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Tony Sabio Republican | Virginia's 8th District | $44,256 | +$2,157 | $6,205 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Lauren Peña Republican | Texas's 37th District | $132,162 | +$2,129 | $4,454 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| James Russell Democratic | Arkansas's 4th District | $21,554 | +$2,001 | $4,546 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Daniel Butierez Republican | Arizona's 7th District | $233,882 | +$1,650 | $11,287 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Ralph Ambrosio Republican | New York's 20th District | $61,545 | +$985 | $7,343 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Aurora Stuski Republican | Pennsylvania's 4th District | $9,750 | +$950 | $2,354 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Edwin Rivera Republican | Virginia's 3rd District | $15,391 | +$557 | $4,635 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Steve Manos Republican | California's 39th District | $11,929 | +$500 | $3,988 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Michael Bahry Independent | U.S. Senate in Rhode Island | $125,116 | +$430 | $92,617 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Barbara Kahl Republican | Oregon's 1st District | $17,728 | +$408 | $5,412 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Armen Kurdian Republican | California's 49th District | $156,095 | +$340 | $24,929 | Sep 30 |
| Suzie Byrd Democratic | Oklahoma's 3rd District | $18,188 | +$164 | $9,508 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Michele Tafoya Republican | U.S. Senate in Minnesota | $9,661,129 | −$25 | $2,134,127 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Ashley Moody Republican | U.S. Senate in Florida (special) | $13,338,185 | +$0 | $2,820,080 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
| Bert Mizusawa Republican | U.S. Senate in Virginia | $1,034,543 | +$0 | $229,502 | Oct 14 (was Sep 30) |
State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.
Candidates
No race changed its modeled candidates since Oct 20.