99chambers

Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Florida · Florida's 16th District · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Kelly Kirschner

Democratic

Former mayor of Sarasota

2026 race · Florida's 16th District

22% chance of winning · race rated Lean R

22%78%

23% chance of winning · race rated Lean R

23%77%
● Kelly Kirschner● Sydney Gruters
Full race forecast

Background

Experience
Local office

Links: FEC filings · Candidate list (source)

Fundraising

Raised
$751.6K
From individuals
$744.1K
Spent
$398.8K
Cash on hand
$352.8K

Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.

Opponents in 2026