Senate
Chance of a Senate majority
D 76%no change
Expected seats 52.3 D · 47.7 R (0 D since Sep 27)
D 76%, 76% Democratic.D 71%no change
Expected seats 52.0 D · 48.0 R (0 D since Sep 27)
D 71%, 71% Democratic.Forecast updates · Forecast as of Sep 28
Monday, September 28, 2026
- Calls changed
- 7
- Party changes
- 4
- New polls
- 25
- Compared with
- Sep 27
Top line
The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Sep 27. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
House
Chance of a House majority
D 96%no change
Expected seats 236.8 D · 198.2 R (+0.4 D since Sep 27)
D 96%, 96% Democratic.D 91%no change
Expected seats 236.5 D · 198.5 R (+0.2 D since Sep 27)
D 91%, 91% Democratic.Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
D 71%no change
Expected seats 27.0 D · 23.0 R (0 D since Sep 27)
D 71%, 71% Democratic.D 75%no change
Expected seats 27.3 D · 22.7 R (0 D since Sep 27)
D 75%, 75% Democratic.Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+9.0no change
Forecast environment
D+9.2D +0.1
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.
Major changes
Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
No Senate or governor race, state legislative chamber or trifecta changed its rating or favored party since Sep 27.
Every call change
7 races changed rating or favored party since Sep 27 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.
House 3 changes
New polls
25 polls new since Sep 27, in 10 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.
Show 13 more
| Race | Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Governor | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox News | Sep 24–Sep 28 | 1,005 LV | D 47 · R 52 | R+5 | static.foxnews.com ↗ |
| Texas Governor | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox News | Sep 24–Sep 28 | 1,203 RV | D 49 · R 50 | R+1 | static.foxnews.com ↗ |
| Texas Governor | Guidant Polling & Strategy for Public First Action | Sep 20–Sep 28 | 800 LV | D 44 · R 46 | R+2 | static01.nyt.com ↗ |
| Texas Governor | UMass Lowell/YouGov | Sep 18–Sep 28 | 850 LV | D 44 · R 48 | R+4 | uml.edu ↗ |
| Texas's 15th District | Normington Petts for House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD sponsor | Sep 24–Sep 28 | 400 LV | D 54 · R 41 | D+13 | x.com ↗ |
| Virginia's 1st District | The Washington Post/SSPG | Sep 23–Sep 28 | 609 LV | D 50 · R 46 | D+4 | washingtonpost.com ↗ |
| Virginia's 5th District | The Washington Post/SSPG | Sep 23–Sep 28 | 600 LV | D 45 · R 51 | R+6 | washingtonpost.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Harvard/Harris Poll/HarrisX | Sep 26–Sep 28 | 2,200 RV | D 50 · R 50 | Even | harvardharrispoll.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Harvard/Harris Poll/HarrisX | Sep 26–Sep 28 | — LV | D 51 · R 49 | D+2 | harvardharrispoll.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | AlphaROC for The Independent Center | Sep 25–Sep 28 | 1,000 A | D 43 · R 37 | D+6 | cdn.prod.website-files.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | The Economist/YouGov | Sep 25–Sep 28 | 1,003 LV | D 53 · R 38 | D+15 | d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | The Economist/YouGov | Sep 25–Sep 28 | 1,423 RV | D 45 · R 37 | D+8 | d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗ |
| Presidential approval | AP/NORC | Sep 24–Sep 28 | 2,140 A | Approve 31 · Disapprove 69 | −38 net | apnorc.org ↗ |
Fundraising
The FEC file this comparison needs was not archived for one of the two dates.
State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.
Candidates
No race changed its modeled candidates since Sep 27.