Maine › U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (68%).
Jackson is favored to win: Jackson wins in 2 of every 3 simulations.
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (76%).
Jackson is favored to win: Jackson wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.
Range of outcomes
In November, voters rank candidates for U.S. Senate and U.S. House; if nobody has a majority, last-place candidates are eliminated and their votes move to each voter's next choice. Governor and legislative races are decided by plurality. The forecast models the final round for Congress.
Former president of the Maine Senate (2018–2024), candidate for ME-02 in 2014, and candidate for governor in 2026
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Incumbent U.S. senator (1997–present)
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.02 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.33 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -15.91 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -15.91 |
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Jackson | Collins | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantageR-sponsored | Oct 13–Oct 14 | 1,200 LV | 49 | 47 | D+2 | D+3.1 |
| Suffolk University | Oct 8–Oct 11 | 500 LV | 49 | 47 | D+2 | D+0.3 |
| Rasmussen ReportsR-sponsored | Oct 5–Oct 8 | 804 LV | 49 | 47 | D+2 | D+2.7 |
| The Washington Post/SSPG | Sep 30–Oct 5 | 800 LV | 50 | 46 | D+4 | D+3.1 |
| Marist University | Oct 1–Oct 4 | 1,505 RV | 51 | 47 | D+4 | D+1.0 |
| Trafalgar GroupR-sponsored | Sep 29–Oct 1 | 1,091 LV | 46 | 46 | Even | |
| Wedgewood Polls | Sep 27–Oct 1 | 400 LV | 52 | 48 | D+4 | |
| CBS News/YouGov | Sep 23–Oct 1 | 1,136 LV | 50 | 50 | Even | |
| co/efficientR-sponsored | Sep 28–Sep 30 | 1,240 LV | 46 | 48 | R+2 | |
| Maine People's Resource Center | Sep 25–Sep 29 | 684 LV | 49 | 47 | D+2 | |
| InsiderAdvantageR-sponsored | Sep 22–Sep 23 | 1,200 LV | 46 | 46 | Even | D+1.2 |
| Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARP | Sep 20–Sep 22 | 982 LV | 50 | 47 | D+3 | |
| New York Times/Siena University | Sep 15–Sep 22 | 619 LV | 46 | 49 | R+3 | |
| University of New Hampshire | Sep 17–Sep 21 | 1,312 LV | 51 | 47 | D+4 | |
| Quantus InsightsR-sponsored | Sep 14–Sep 15 | 621 LV | 47 | 48 | R+1 | |
| Quantus InsightsR-sponsored | Sep 14–Sep 15 | 621 LV | 46 | 47 | R+1 | |
| University of Massachusetts/YouGov | Aug 28–Sep 14 | 650 LV | 48 | 43 | D+5 | |
| Rasmussen ReportsR-sponsored | Sep 8–Sep 10 | 1,033 LV | 46 | 45 | D+1 | |
| YouGov | Sep 2–Sep 8 | 1,335 LV | 48 | 44 | D+4 | |
| YouGov | Sep 2–Sep 8 | 1,378 RV | 46 | 44 | D+2 | |
| SSRS for CNN | Aug 31–Sep 6 | 880 LV | 48 | 45 | D+3 | |
| Abacus Data | Aug 26–Aug 28 | 327 LV | 52 | 43 | D+9 | |
| Abacus Data | Aug 26–Aug 28 | 500 RV | 45 | 46 | R+1 | |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox News | Aug 6–Aug 10 | 1,000 RV | 48 | 46 | D+2 | |
| Hart Research for Senate Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD-sponsored | Jul 27–Aug 1 | 802 LV | 49 | 45 | D+4 | |
| University of New Hampshire | Jul 15–Jul 20 | 1,178 LV | 49 | 46 | D+3 | |
| Z to A Research for a pro-Shah groupD-sponsored | Jul 7–Jul 8 | 988 LV | 47 | 48 | R+1 | |
| Public Policy Polling for Platner's campaignD-sponsored | Jul 7–Jul 7 | 785 LV | 49 | 44 | D+5 | |
| Wedgewood PollsD-sponsored | Jul 4–Jul 6 | 405 LV | 48 | 43 | D+5 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 14, 2026.
Lean D+8: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.