South Dakota › U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Rounds is clearly favored to win: Rounds wins in about 19 of every 20 simulations.
Rounds is clearly favored to win: Rounds wins in about 19 of every 20 simulations.
Range of outcomes
U.S. Navy and Air Force veteran, former Northern State University political science professor, and Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in 2022
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Incumbent U.S. senator (2015–present)
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | -0.25 |
| Elected-experience edge | -1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -3.28 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -3.28 |
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Bengs | Rounds | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zenith Research for Bengs' campaign | Sep 24–Sep 27 | 500 LV | 47 | 53 | R+6 | R+9.9 |
| Zenith Research for Bengs' campaign | Sep 24–Sep 27 | 500 LV | 38 | 44 | R+6 | R+9.9 |
| Public Policy Polling for Bengs' campaignD-sponsored | Sep 8–Sep 9 | 629 RV | 42 | 45 | R+3 | R+6.8 |
| Lake Research PartnersD-sponsored | Aug 26–Aug 30 | 500 LV | 51 | 44 | D+7 | D+5.8 |
| Impact Research for Bengs' campaignD-sponsored | Aug 13–Aug 17 | 500 LV | 44 | 44 | Even | R+4.4 |
| Public Opinion Strategies for the NRSCR-sponsored | Jul 6–Jul 9 | 500 LV | 33 | 56 | R+23 | R+15.1 |
| Public Policy Polling for Bengs' campaignD-sponsored | May 29–May 30 | 726 RV | 40 | 44 | R+4 | |
| Public Policy Polling for Bengs' campaignD-sponsored | Feb 17–Feb 18 | 685 RV | 35 | 47 | R+12 | |
| Public Policy Polling for Bengs' campaignD-sponsored | Nov 13–Nov 14 | 814 RV | 31 | 44 | R+13 | |
| Public Policy Polling for Bengs' campaignD-sponsored | Jul 30–Jul 31 | 524 LV | 28 | 41 | R+13 | R+19.3 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 27, 2026.
Lean R+29: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.