Pollsters · Updated Oct 17, 2026
The Bullfinch Group
17 public polls in the 2026 cycle, across 4 races and the generic congressional ballot. Latest: Sep 6, 2026.
Also listed as Bullfinch Group.
- Polls
- 177 in 4 races · 10 generic ballot
- 538 rating
- —Not rated by 538
- House effect
- D+5.8Against other polls, in today's forecast
Its polls run 5.8 points more Democratic than other polls of the same races; the forecast removes that before averaging.
Race polls
Newest first. Source links go to the poll's own release.
| Race | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska's at-large District for the Independent Leadership Council | Sep 1–Sep 6 | 820 LV | Hill 37 · III 44 | R+7 | cdn.prod.website-files.com ↗ |
| Alaska's at-large District for the Independent Leadership Council | Sep 1–Sep 6 | 739 LV | Hill 47 · III 50 | R+3 | cdn.prod.website-files.com ↗ |
| California's 6th District for the Independent Leadership Council, which supports Kiley | Sep 1–Sep 6 | 927 LV | Pan 37 · Kiley 37 | Even | cdn.prod.website-files.com ↗ |
| U.S. Senate in Idaho for Achilles's campaign | Aug 4–Aug 7 | 608 LV | Achilles 38 · Risch 33 | D+5 | thebullfinchgroup.com ↗ |
| U.S. Senate in Idaho for Achilles's campaign | Aug 4–Aug 7 | 608 LV | Achilles 30 · Risch 34 | R+4 | thebullfinchgroup.com ↗ |
| U.S. Senate in MontanaR-sponsored | Jul 13–Jul 16 | 793 LV | Bodnar 24 · Alme 36 | R+12 | x.com ↗ |
| U.S. Senate in Idaho for Achilles's campaign | May 29–Jun 1 | 774 RV | Achilles 36 · Risch 40 | R+4 | thebullfinchgroup.com ↗ |
Generic congressional ballot
Which party voters would back for the House. The national House forecast.
| Dates | Sample | Dem. | Rep. | Margin | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14–Aug 17 | 1,000 RV | 42 | 37 | D+5 | thebullfinchgroup.com ↗ |
| Aug 14–Aug 17 | 1,200 A | 45 | 40 | D+5 | thebullfinchgroup.com ↗ |
| Jun 12–Jun 16 for The Independent Center | 1,000 RV | 44 | 36 | D+8 | cdn.prod.website-files.com ↗ |
| Jun 12–Jun 16 for The Independent Center | 1,200 A | 43 | 34 | D+9 | cdn.prod.website-files.com ↗ |
| May 29–Jun 2 | 1,000 RV | 42 | 36 | D+6 | thebullfinchgroup.com ↗ |
| May 29–Jun 2 | 1,200 A | 41 | 34 | D+7 | thebullfinchgroup.com ↗ |
| Dec 30–Jan 1 for The Independent Center | 1,000 RV | 44 | 33 | D+11 | cdn.prod.website-files.com ↗ |
| Dec 30–Jan 1 for The Independent Center | 1,200 A | 40 | 30 | D+10 | cdn.prod.website-files.com ↗ |
| Nov 21–Nov 25 | 1,000 RV | 41 | 35 | D+6 | data.ddhq.io ↗ |
| Nov 21–Nov 25 | 1,200 A | 37 | 32 | D+5 | data.ddhq.io ↗ |