SEA Polling & Strategic Design

Polls

11 in 1 race

Grade

B−Accuracy in past elections, A+ to D (how)

House effect, 2026

D+0.9Against other polls, in today's forecast

House effect, past elections

D+0.3Against other polls of the same races

Sponsorship

DMost of its polls were paid for by a Democratic party or campaign

Based on 9 polls of 9 races taken in the last three weeks before elections from 2002 to 2018: they missed the final margin by 3.8 points on average, 0.3 points more than other polls of the same races.

Its polls run 0.9 points more Democratic than other polls of the same races; the forecast removes that before averaging.

In past elections its polls ran 0.3 points more Democratic than other polls of the same races; today's estimate starts from that.