Senate
Chance of a Senate majority
D 74%▲ D +1
Expected seats 52.1 D · 47.9 R (0 D since Oct 4)
D 74%, 74% Democratic.D 70%▲ D +1
Expected seats 51.9 D · 48.1 R (+0.1 D since Oct 4)
D 70%, 70% Democratic.Forecast updates · Forecast as of Oct 5
Monday, October 5, 2026
- Calls changed
- 17
- Party changes
- 10
- New polls
- 32
- Compared with
- Oct 4
Top line
The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Oct 4. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
House
Chance of a House majority
D 96%▲ D +1
Expected seats 236.4 D · 198.6 R (+0.6 D since Oct 4)
D 96%, 96% Democratic.D 91%▲ D +1
Expected seats 236.3 D · 198.7 R (+0.9 D since Oct 4)
D 91%, 91% Democratic.Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
D 68%▼ R +1
Expected seats 26.8 D · 23.2 R (−0.1 D since Oct 4)
D 68%, 68% Democratic.D 73%▼ R +1
Expected seats 27.3 D · 22.7 R (0 D since Oct 4)
D 73%, 73% Democratic.Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+8.8no change
Forecast environment
D+9.0D +0.1
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.
Major changes
Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
Each track runs from Solid R (left) to Solid D (right): Oct 4 → now.
Senate races
- U.S. Senate in IowaLean D → Toss-up
Governor races
- Arizona GovernorLikely D → Lean D
Trifectas
Every call change
17 races changed rating or favored party since Oct 4 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.
Senate 1 change
- U.S. Senate in IowaLean D → Toss-up
Governors 1 change
- Arizona GovernorLikely D → Lean D
State legislatures 13 changes in 10 chambers
Arizona State Senate · 1 change
- LD-13Lean D → Toss-up
Connecticut House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-108Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Florida House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-36Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Maine House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-143Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Michigan State Senate · 1 change
- SD-9Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
North Carolina House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-37Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Pennsylvania House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-44Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Texas House of Representatives · 3 changes
Utah House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-59Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
New polls
32 polls new since Oct 4, in 21 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.
Show 20 more
Fundraising
The FEC file this comparison needs was not archived for one of the two dates.
State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.
Candidates
No race changed its modeled candidates since Oct 4.