Senate
Chance of a Senate majority
D 73%▼ R +3
Expected seats 52.0 D · 48.0 R (−0.3 D since Sep 29)
D 73%, 73% Democratic.D 68%▼ R +2
Expected seats 51.8 D · 48.2 R (−0.2 D since Sep 29)
D 68%, 68% Democratic.Forecast updates · Forecast as of Sep 30
Wednesday, September 30, 2026
- Calls changed
- 10
- Party changes
- 4
- New polls
- 32
- Compared with
- Sep 29
Top line
The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Sep 29. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
House
Chance of a House majority
D 96%no change
Expected seats 236.2 D · 198.8 R (−0.6 D since Sep 29)
D 96%, 96% Democratic.D 91%▼ R +1
Expected seats 236.4 D · 198.6 R (−0.4 D since Sep 29)
D 91%, 91% Democratic.Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
D 69%▼ R +1
Expected seats 26.9 D · 23.1 R (−0.1 D since Sep 29)
D 69%, 69% Democratic.D 74%▼ R +1
Expected seats 27.4 D · 22.6 R (0 D since Sep 29)
D 74%, 74% Democratic.Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+8.8R +0.2
Forecast environment
D+9.0R +0.2
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.
Major changes
Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
Each track runs from Solid R (left) to Solid D (right): Sep 29 → now.
Senate races
- U.S. Senate in IdahoLikely R → Solid R
- U.S. Senate in IowaToss-up → Lean D
Governor races
- Oklahoma GovernorLikely R → Solid R
Trifectas
| State | Before | After |
|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma · R trifecta now | D trifecta <1% · R trifecta 91% | D trifecta <1% · R trifecta 95% |
Every call change
10 races changed rating or favored party since Sep 29 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.
Senate 2 changes
- U.S. Senate in IdahoLikely R → Solid R
- U.S. Senate in IowaToss-up → Lean D
Governors 1 change
- Oklahoma GovernorLikely R → Solid R
State legislatures 6 changes in 6 chambers
Florida House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-100Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Georgia House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-45Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Idaho House of Representatives · 1 change
- LD-15Likely D → Lean D
Idaho State Senate · 1 change
- LD-29Likely D → Lean D
New Mexico House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-57Lean D → Toss-up
North Carolina House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-37Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
New polls
32 polls new since Sep 29, in 24 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.
Show 20 more
Fundraising
The FEC file this comparison needs was not archived for one of the two dates.
State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.
Candidates
No race changed its modeled candidates since Sep 29.