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Forecast updates · Forecast as of Sep 11

Friday, September 11, 2026

Calls changed
39
Party changes
10
New polls
22
Compared with
Sep 10

Top line

The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Sep 10. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.

Senate

Chance of a Senate majority

D 74%▲ D +2

D50%RSep 1Sep 11

Expected seats 52.0 D · 48.0 R (+0.1 D since Sep 10)

D 74%, 74% Democratic.

D 66%▲ D +2

D50%RSep 1Sep 11

Expected seats 51.6 D · 48.4 R (+0.1 D since Sep 10)

D 66%, 66% Democratic.

House

Chance of a House majority

D 93%no change

D50%RSep 1Sep 11

Expected seats 233.8 D · 201.2 R (+0.4 D since Sep 10)

D 93%, 93% Democratic.

D 87%▲ D +1

D50%RSep 1Sep 11

Expected seats 234.0 D · 201.0 R (+0.6 D since Sep 10)

D 87%, 87% Democratic.

Governors

Chance of a majority of governorships

D 75%▲ D +5

D50%RSep 1Sep 11

Expected seats 27.2 D · 22.8 R (+0.3 D since Sep 10)

D 75%, 75% Democratic.

D 78%▲ D +3

D50%RSep 1Sep 11

Expected seats 27.7 D · 22.3 R (+0.3 D since Sep 10)

D 78%, 78% Democratic.

Generic ballot (likely voters)

D+7.8no change

Forecast environment

D+8.2D +0.1

Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.

Major changes

Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).

Each track runs from Solid R (left) to Solid D (right): Sep 10 → now.

Senate races

  1. U.S. Senate in AlaskaToss-up → Lean D
  2. U.S. Senate in IowaToss-up → Lean D
  3. U.S. Senate in New HampshireSolid D → Likely D

Governor races

  1. Alaska GovernorNow D favoredLean R → Lean D
  2. New Hampshire GovernorLikely R → Solid R

State legislative chambers

  1. New Hampshire House of RepresentativesLikely D → Lean D

Every call change

39 races changed rating or favored party since Sep 10 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.

Senate 3 changes

  1. U.S. Senate in AlaskaToss-up → Lean D
  2. U.S. Senate in IowaToss-up → Lean D
  3. U.S. Senate in New HampshireSolid D → Likely D

Governors 2 changes

  1. Alaska GovernorNow D favoredLean R → Lean D
  2. New Hampshire GovernorLikely R → Solid R

Statewide offices 1 change

  1. Texas Lieutenant GovernorLikely R → Lean R

House 1 change

  1. GA-11Solid R → Likely R

State legislatures 32 changes in 6 chambers

Alaska House of Representatives · 1 change
  1. HD-15Toss-up → Lean D
Georgia House of Representatives · 1 change
  1. HD-45Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
New Hampshire House of Representatives · 24 changes
  1. State House District Strafford 07Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
  2. Carroll 8Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
  3. Carroll 7Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
  4. Sullivan 7Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
  5. Rockingham 40Toss-up → Lean R
  6. Rockingham 35Toss-up → Lean R
  7. State House District Hillsborough 42Toss-up → Lean R
  8. Rockingham 34Toss-up → Lean R
  9. Rockingham 39Lean D → Toss-up
  10. State House District Hillsborough 29Toss-up → Lean R
  11. Rockingham 36Toss-up → Lean R
  12. Rockingham 38Lean D → Toss-up
  13. Rockingham 31Toss-up → Lean R
  14. State House District Rockingham 05Toss-up → Lean R
  15. State House District Sullivan 05Lean D → Toss-up
  16. State House District Merrimack 12Toss-up → Lean R
  17. State House District Hillsborough 12Likely D → Lean D
  18. Hillsborough 38Likely D → Lean D
  19. State House District Merrimack 10Lean R → Likely R
  20. Hillsborough 41Likely D → Lean D
  21. State House District Hillsborough 15Likely D → Lean D
  22. Sullivan 8Lean D → Toss-up
  23. State House District Rockingham 06Likely D → Lean D
  24. State House District Carroll 03Lean R → Likely R
New Hampshire State Senate · 3 changes
  1. SD-12Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
  2. SD-9Toss-up → Lean R
  3. SD-18Lean D → Toss-up
Rhode Island State Senate · 1 change
  1. SD-34Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Texas House of Representatives · 2 changes
  1. HD-112Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
  2. HD-94Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up

New polls

22 polls new since Sep 10, in 15 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.

New polls
RacePollsterDatesSampleResultMarginSource
U.S. Senate in AlaskaFabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARPSep 8–Sep 11800 LVD 50 · R 43D+7aarp.org ↗
U.S. Senate in AlaskaFabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARPSep 8–Sep 11800 LVD 53 · R 47D+6aarp.org ↗
U.S. Senate in AlaskaFabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARPSep 8–Sep 11800 LVD 46 · R 41D+5aarp.org ↗
U.S. Senate in IowaCygnal for the Iowans for Tax Relief FoundationR sponsorSep 9–Sep 11500 LVD 43 · R 43Evenitrfoundation.org ↗
U.S. Senate in New Hampshireco/efficientR sponsorSep 9–Sep 11958 LVD 46 · R 46Evenbattlegrounds.coefficient.org ↗
U.S. Senate in TexasReconMR/Siena UniversitySep 8–Sep 11614 LVD 49 · R 43D+6reconmr.com ↗
Alaska GovernorFabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARPSep 8–Sep 11800 LVD 49 · R 18D+31aarp.org ↗
Alaska GovernorFabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARPSep 8–Sep 11800 LVD 55 · R 45D+10aarp.org ↗
Alaska GovernorFabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARPSep 8–Sep 11800 LVD 40 · R 14D+26aarp.org ↗
Iowa GovernorCygnal for the Iowans for Tax Relief FoundationR sponsorSep 9–Sep 11500 LVD 48 · R 44D+4itrfoundation.org ↗
New Hampshire Governorco/efficientR sponsorSep 9–Sep 11958 LVD 34 · R 55R+21battlegrounds.coefficient.org ↗
Texas GovernorReconMR/Siena UniversitySep 8–Sep 11614 LVD 49 · R 45D+4reconmr.com ↗
Show 10 more
New polls (continued)
RacePollsterDatesSampleResultMarginSource
Texas Lieutenant GovernorReconMR/Siena UniversitySep 8–Sep 11614 LVD 47 · R 46D+1reconmr.com ↗
Iowa Attorney GeneralCygnal for Iowans for Tax ReliefR sponsorSep 9–Sep 11500 LVD 40 · R 40Evenitrfoundation.org ↗
Texas Attorney GeneralReconMR/Siena UniversitySep 8–Sep 11614 LVD 44 · R 45R+1reconmr.com ↗
Alaska's at-large DistrictFabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARPSep 8–Sep 11800 LVInd. 35 · R 51R+16aarp.org ↗
Alaska's at-large DistrictFabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARPSep 8–Sep 11800 LVInd. 43 · R 57R+14aarp.org ↗
Alaska's at-large DistrictFabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARPSep 8–Sep 11800 LVInd. 31 · R 45R+14aarp.org ↗
Georgia's 11th DistrictMiller Consulting Services for Harden's campaignD sponsorAug 31–Sep 11402 LVD 42 · R 40D+2documentcloud.org ↗
North Carolina's 1st DistrictGBAO for the House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD sponsorSep 8–Sep 11500 LVD 50 · R 43D+7x.com ↗
North Carolina's 11th DistrictPublic Policy Polling for The Bench, which supports AgerD sponsorSep 10–Sep 11531 RVD 47 · R 44D+3x.com ↗
Generic congressional ballotCBS News/YouGovSep 8–Sep 111,750 LVD 54 · R 46D+8cbsnews.com ↗

Fundraising

The FEC file this comparison needs was not archived for one of the two dates.

State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.

Candidates

No race changed its modeled candidates since Sep 10.