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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

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What's the difference?

Iowa › Governor · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Iowa Governor

Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (83%).

Sand is clearly favored to win: Sand wins in 5 of every 6 simulations.

Sand (D)
83%
chance of winning
Lahn (R)
17%
Average margin
D+5.6
80% of outcomes
R+2 to D+13
Partisan lean
R+12
Polls
21in our database

Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (79%).

Sand is favored to win: Sand wins in 4 of every 5 simulations.

Sand (D)
79%
chance of winning
Lahn (R)
21%
Average margin
D+5.4
80% of outcomes
R+3 to D+14
Partisan lean
R+12
Polls
21in our database

Range of outcomes

D+5.6R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20
D+5.4R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Sand 83%Lahn 17%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Sand 79%Lahn 21%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast
Iowa state offices
+0.2Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
Environment here
D+9.7Used by the fundamentals
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by the national and state moodR+2.9Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceR+1.4Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Iowa and look-alikeplacesR+0.3Polling average18 polls, latest Oct 12D+6.8Horizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayD+5.6Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayD+5.4

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)0
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)0
Elected-experience edge1
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation-3.49
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation0

Polls

R+10R+5EvenD+5D+10Avg. D+6.8Jun 19Nov 3
All 21 polls
PollsterDatesSampleSandLahnMarginAdjusted
YouGovOct 6–Oct 122,245 LV5044D+6D+5.1
Marist UniversityOct 8–Oct 11— LV5245D+7D+4.1
Marist UniversityOct 8–Oct 111,100 RV5443D+11D+4.1
Emerson College for Nexstar Media GroupOct 5–Oct 6650 LV4945D+4D+5.9
SSRS for CNNSep 29–Oct 5801 LV5142D+9D+8.4
Suffolk UniversityOct 1–Oct 4500 LV5543D+12D+10.5
New York Times/Siena UniversitySep 22–Oct 1606 LV5241D+11
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox NewsSep 24–Sep 281,008 LV5344D+9D+8.6
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox NewsSep 24–Sep 281,204 RV5343D+10D+8.6
Marist UniversitySep 17–Sep 201,050 RV5442D+12
co/efficientR-sponsoredSep 14–Sep 16831 LV4642D+4
Cygnal for the Iowans for Tax Relief FoundationR-sponsoredSep 9–Sep 11500 LV4844D+4
YouGovSep 3–Sep 82,169 RV5039D+11
YouGovSep 3–Sep 82,041 LV5141D+10
Emerson CollegeAug 31–Sep 1750 LV4946D+3
Wedgewood PollsAug 27–Aug 29600 LV5146D+5
Suffolk UniversityAug 20–Aug 23500 LV4844D+4
Emerson CollegeAug 2–Aug 4712 LV4843D+5
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox NewsJun 23–Jun 271,003 RV5344D+9
New York Times/Siena UniversityJun 15–Jun 27600 LV4847D+1
Cygnal for the Iowans for Tax Relief FoundationR-sponsoredJun 16–Jun 19600 LV4843D+5

Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 12, 2026.

The state

Lean R+12: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentR+10.1R+12.4 vs. nation2020 presidentR+8.4R+12.9 vs. nation2024 presidentR+13.4R+11.9 vs. nation

Who lives here

Population
3,210,507
Adults with a B.A.+
31%
White, no degree
58%of adults
  • White 82%
  • Hispanic 7%
  • Black 4%
  • Asian 3%
  • Other / multiracial 4%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

2024 President Vote in this state

1,634,297 two-party votes · R+13.4 · R+11.9 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)56.7%
Kamala Harris (D)43.3%

2022

1,221,864 votes · R+19.0
✓ Kim Reynolds (R)58.0%
Deidre Dejear (D)39.5%
Rick Stewart (L)2.4%

2020 President Vote in this state

1,656,733 two-party votes · R+8.4 · R+12.9 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)54.2%
Joe Biden (D)45.8%

2018

1,327,638 votes · R+2.8
✓ Kim Reynolds/adam Gregg (R)50.3%
Fred Hubbell/rita R Hart (D)47.5%
Jake Porter/lynne Gentry (L)1.6%
Gary Siegwarth/natalia Blaskovich (OTH)0.6%

2016 President Vote in this state

1,454,652 two-party votes · R+10.1 · R+12.4 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)55.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)44.9%

2014

1,086,819 votes · R+22.6
✓ Terry E. Branstad (R)61.3%
Jack Hatch (D)38.7%

2010

1,077,292 votes · R+10.0
✓ Terry E. Branstad (R)55.0%
Chet Culver (D)45.0%

2006

1,036,446 votes · D+9.8
✓ Chet Culver (D)54.9%
Jim Nussle (R)45.1%

2002

997,061 votes · D+8.4
✓ Tom Vilsack (D)54.2%
Doug Gross (R)45.8%

Also on the ballot in Iowa

U.S. SenateJosh TurekAshley HinsonFlip riskFlip risk53%Rep.50%Rep.