South Carolina · 2026 forecast · Southeast region · Updated Oct 16, 2026

South Carolina in 2026

South Carolina elects a U.S. senator and a governor, an attorney general, a secretary of state, a treasurer, an auditor, all 7 members of the U.S. House and all 124 members of the House of Representatives on November 3, 2026. The State Senate is next elected in 2028.

On the November 3 ballot: U.S. Senate · Governor · 4 statewide offices · 7 U.S. House seats · 1 legislative chamber.

U.S. Senate: R 74%R 71%Annie Andrews vs. Darline Graham
Governor: R 90%R 89%Jermaine Johnson vs. Alan Wilson
U.S. House: 1.6 D · 5.4 R1.8 D · 5.2 RExpected seats of 7
South Carolina House of Representatives: R >99%R >99%Chance of control · 124 of 124 seats up
Attorney General: R 94%R 79%Richard Hricik vs. David Stumbo
Secretary of State: R 96%R 78%Jason Belton vs. Mark Hammond
Treasurer: R 97%R 78%Vincent Coe vs. Curtis Loftis
Auditor: R 90%R 79%Tiffany Boozer vs. Mike Burkhold

Trifecta
Statewide
Environment
U.S. House
General Assembly
Election rules
Not on the ballot

U.S. House districts · South Carolina

Solid D
Likely D
Lean D
Toss-up
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R
Projected flip (stripes: party holding it now)

Trifecta

Republican trifecta now

Republicans hold the governorship and every legislative chamber. A trifecta is one party holding all of them.

After the election

Dem. trifecta: <1%
Divided: 10%
Rep. trifecta: 90%

The Republican trifecta most likely continues (90%); 10% chance it is broken.

After the election

Dem. trifecta: <1%
Divided: 11%
Rep. trifecta: 89%

The Republican trifecta most likely continues (89%); 11% chance it is broken.

Chances come from the same simulations as the races, so outcomes are correlated. A governorship or chamber not on the ballot this year keeps its current party. Source: 99chambers forecast, run 56, updated Oct 16, 2026.

Statewide races

Every race decided by the whole state. Statewide offices nationwide.

U.S. Senate

Lean RLean R

● Annie Andrews● Darline GrahamINC

26%74%

29%71%

Governor

Likely RLikely R

● Jermaine Johnson● Alan Wilson

10%90%

11%89%

Statewide offices

Attorney General

Likely RLean R

● Richard Hricik● David Stumbo

6%94%

21%79%

Secretary of State

Solid RLean R

● Jason Belton● Mark HammondINC

4%96%

22%78%

Treasurer

Solid RLean R

● Vincent Coe● Curtis LoftisINC

3%97%

22%78%

AuditorR flipR flip

Likely RLean R

● Tiffany Boozer● Mike Burkhold

10%90%

21%79%

Ratings

Lean R1

U.S. Senate

Likely R3

Solid R2

Lean R5

Likely R1

Governor

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). flip: projected to change parties, in the color of the party favored to gain it.

The South Carolina environment

The environment South Carolina's governor, statewide and legislative races run in, read from their polls against what the fundamentals expect. Its federal races run in the national environment.

National environment: D+9.5Election Day forecast, national House vote
South Carolina state offices vs. the nation: −1.1± 4.2 (80% range) · 1 polled state race
South Carolina state-office environment: D+8.41.1 pts more Republican than the nation

The polled state races behind it

Over time

Each polled race's average, minus what the fundamentals expect at the national environment, in national-environment points (a dot right of center runs more Democratic than expected). Readings are weighted by poll precision and office (governor most, then other statewide races, the Senate, legislative and House races), centered on the national average and pulled toward zero, so a thinly polled state stays near the nation. Governor, statewide and legislative races use the South Carolina environment in full; Senate and House races 0% of it. Each race's own polls are left out of the environment it uses.

U.S. House

7 districts. The national House forecast.

Solid D1

SC-6

Lean R1

SC-1

Likely R1

SC-2

Solid R4

Solid D1

SC-6

Toss-up1

SC-1risk

Lean R1

SC-2

Likely R2

Solid R2

Columns follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. The square shows who holds the seat now (■ Democrats, ■ Republicans). risk: a toss-up (40–60%) that could change parties.

Columbia

7 races

District	Candidates	Chance of winning (D · R)	Avg. margin	Rating	Lean	Polls
SC-1Flip risk	● Nancy Lacore● Jenny Costa HoneycuttAlso: Bill Reeside (L)	39%61% 43%57%	R+1.6R+1.2	Lean RToss-up	R+12	5
SC-2	● Zyon Khalifa● Joe WilsonINC	12%88% 26%74%	R+8.0R+5.5	Likely RLean R	R+14	—
SC-3	● Eunice Lehmacher● Sheri BiggsINC	<1%>99% <1%>99%	R+34.7R+35.3	Solid RSolid R	R+42	—
SC-4	● Courtney McClain● William TimmonsINC	3%98% 7%93%	R+14.4R+13.8	Solid RLikely R	R+22	—
SC-5	● Mallory Dittmer● Wes Climer	2%98% 6%94%	R+15.0R+14.6	Solid RLikely R	R+22	—
SC-6	● Jim ClyburnINC● John Peterson	>99%<1% >99%<1%	D+32.3D+32.3	Solid DSolid D	D+25	—
SC-7	● John Vincent● Russell FryINC	1%99% 3%97%	R+16.2R+15.2	Solid RSolid R	R+25	1

Lean: how much more Democratic (D+) or Republican (R+) the place voted for president than the nation (2024 weighted 75%, 2020 25%). Ratings follow the chance of winning: Toss-up 40–60%, Lean 60–80%, Likely 80–95%, Solid 95%+. INC = incumbent running. D flip / R flip: another party is favored (60% or more) over the party holding the seat now (hover for the chance it changes parties); Flip risk: the seat is a toss-up (40–60%).

South Carolina General Assembly

Chance of control after November 3, and how each chamber's races rate.

South Carolina House of Representatives

Avg. 41 D – 83 R seats · 63 for control · R supermajority now: 63% it holds

Avg. 43 D – 82 R seats · 63 for control · R supermajority now: 45% it holds

Full forecast

South Carolina House of Representatives ratings

1 seat projected to flip: 1 R→D. 5 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

5 seats projected to flip: 5 R→D. 2 more are toss-ups that could change parties (flip risk).

Solid D32

Likely D3

Lean D1

HD-116flip

Toss-up5

Lean R3

Likely R10

Solid R70

Solid D28

Likely D5

Lean D7

Toss-up2

Lean R8

Likely R14

Solid R60

Closest legislative races

HD-110KJ AtwoodTom HartnettFlip riskD flip52%Rep.64%Dem. HD-98Sonja Ogletree SataniGreg FordFlip riskFlip risk55%Rep.58%Rep. HD-102Montez AikenHarriet HolmanFlip riskD flip56%Dem.62%Dem. HD-122Korey WilliamsBill HagerFlip riskD flip59%Dem.65%Dem. HD-12Jumelle BrooksDaniel GibsonFlip riskD flip59%Dem.64%Dem. HD-64Michele DemeryFawn PedalinoFlip risk65%Rep.52%Dem.

HD-57Cynthia O FordLucas Atkinson70%Rep.72%Rep. HD-24Caroline AvingerBruce Bannister77%Rep.60%Rep. HD-116Clay MiddletonJames E TeepleD flipD flip79%Dem.76%Dem. HD-112Jenna ArsenaultJoe Bustos82%Rep.70%Rep. HD-46Omar L McCroreyHeath Sessions83%Rep.66%Rep. HD-22Josh KendrickPaul Wickensimer86%Rep.77%Rep.

How South Carolina votes

Election rules that differ from the usual party primary and plurality win.

Senate not on the 2026 ballot

All 46 senators serve four-year terms elected together in presidential years; the next Senate election is in 2028.

Not on the ballot this year

This chamber holds regular elections in other years.

South Carolina State Senate

Next regular election: 2028 · 46 seats

12 D · 34 R