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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

North Carolina › U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

U.S. Senate in North Carolina

Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (97%).

Cooper is very likely to win: Cooper wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.

Cooper (D)
97%
chance of winning
Whatley (R)
3%
Average margin
D+10.8
80% of outcomes
D+4 to D+18
Partisan lean
R+3
Polls
59in our database

Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (95%).

Cooper is clearly favored to win: Cooper wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.

Cooper (D)
95%
chance of winning
Whatley (R)
5%
Average margin
D+10.2
80% of outcomes
D+3 to D+18
Partisan lean
R+3
Polls
59in our database

Range of outcomes

D+10.8R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20
D+10.2R+30R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20D+30

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Cooper 97%Whatley 3%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3Cooper 95%Whatley 5%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

Democratic

Roy Cooper

Former governor of North Carolina (2017–2025)

Experience
Statewide office or Congress
Raised
$47.2M
From individuals
$17.4M
Spent
$34.7M
Cash on hand
$12.5M

Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.

Profile and career · Wikipedia

Republican

Michael Whatley

Former chair of the Republican National Committee (2024–2025)

Experience
No elected office
Raised
$13.4M
From individuals
$7M
Spent
$12.5M
Cash on hand
$916.1K

Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.

Profile and career · Wikipedia

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by the national and state moodD+7.4Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceD+9.2Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in North Carolina andlook-alike placesD+9.3Polling average43 polls, latest Oct 11D+11.1Horizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayD+10.8Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayD+10.2

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)0
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)1.14
Elected-experience edge1
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation1.18
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation0

Polls

R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20Avg. D+11.1Jul 30Nov 3
All 59 polls
PollsterDatesSampleCooperWhatleyMarginAdjusted
SurveyUSA for WRAL-TV and WSOC-TVOct 7–Oct 11643 LV5440D+14D+13.1
Trafalgar GroupR-sponsoredOct 8–Oct 101,091 LV4941D+8D+10.4
Change Research for Carolina ForwardD-sponsoredOct 1–Oct 7829 LV5040D+10D+5.2
East Carolina UniversitySep 30–Oct 3810 LV5043D+7D+8.5
East Carolina UniversitySep 30–Oct 3810 LV5346D+7D+8.5
Big Data PollSep 27–Sep 29642 LV4735D+12
Big Data PollSep 27–Sep 29642 LV5139D+12
Big Data PollSep 27–Sep 29698 RV4534D+11
Big Data PollSep 27–Sep 29698 RV4938D+11
Quantus InsightsR-sponsoredSep 21–Sep 22686 LV4843D+5
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARPSep 17–Sep 201,806 LV5342D+11
Opinion Diagnostics for Common Cause North CarolinaSep 17–Sep 20857 LV5141D+10
Opinion Diagnostics for Common Cause North CarolinaSep 17–Sep 20857 LV5244D+8
YouGovSep 15–Sep 183,864 RV5241D+11D+11.8
YouGovSep 15–Sep 183,742 LV5341D+12D+11.8
YouGovSep 15–Sep 183,511 LV5441D+13D+11.8
InsiderAdvantageR-sponsoredSep 16–Sep 171,200 LV4843D+5D+6.9
High Point UniversitySep 9–Sep 16813 RV4939D+10
High Point UniversitySep 9–Sep 16706 LV5042D+8
Harper Polling for The Carolina JournalR-sponsoredSep 13–Sep 15608 LV4934D+15
Catawba College/YouGovSep 4–Sep 15885 LV4735D+12
Catawba College/YouGovSep 4–Sep 15885 LV4837D+11
The Trafalgar GroupR-sponsoredSep 8–Sep 101,084 LV4842D+6
East Carolina UniversityAug 31–Sep 3675 LV4639D+7
East Carolina UniversityAug 31–Sep 3675 LV5244D+8
Elon University/YouGovAug 21–Aug 31565 LV4938D+11
Elon University/YouGovAug 21–Aug 31677 RV4936D+13
Elon University/YouGovAug 21–Aug 31800 A3929D+10
High Point University/YouGovAug 3–Aug 12800 RV4841D+7
High Point University/YouGovAug 3–Aug 12660 LV5045D+5
Harper Polling for The Carolina JournalR-sponsoredAug 9–Aug 10600 LV5239D+13
Change Research for Carolina ForwardD-sponsoredAug 3–Aug 6915 LV5043D+7
Change ResearchD-sponsoredJul 29–Aug 1967 V5041D+9
Elon University/YouGovJul 23–Jul 31466 LV5342D+11
Elon University/YouGovJul 23–Jul 31717 RV5135D+16
Elon University/YouGovJul 23–Jul 31800 A4733D+14
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox NewsJul 23–Jul 271,005 RV5344D+9
Public Policy PollingD-sponsoredJul 10–Jul 11759 LV4844D+4
New York Times/Siena UniversityJun 15–Jun 27601 LV5043D+7
Catawba College/YouGovJun 1–Jun 10905 LV4834D+14
Harper PollingR-sponsoredMay 10–May 11600 LV5039D+11
Change Research for Carolina ForwardD-sponsoredMay 4–May 8957 LV4942D+7
Opinion DiagnosticsR-sponsoredApr 21–Apr 24830 V5041D+9
High Point University/YouGovMar 26–Apr 6703 LV5042D+8
High Point University/YouGovMar 26–Apr 6800 RV4939D+10
Quantus InsightsR-sponsoredMar 31–Apr 1987 LV4944D+5
Harper Polling for The Carolina JournalR-sponsoredMar 22–Mar 23600 LV4941D+8
Catawba College/YouGovMar 9–Mar 181,000 LV4834D+14
Public Policy PollingD-sponsoredMar 13–Mar 14556 V4744D+3
Nexus Strategies/Strategic Partners Solutions for Healthier UnitedMar 8–Mar 9800 RV5032D+18
Change ResearchD-sponsoredJan 31–Feb 41,069 RV5040D+10
TIPP Insights for the League of American WorkersR-sponsoredJan 12–Jan 151,512 RV4824D+24
Change Research for Carolina ForwardD-sponsoredJan 5–Jan 71,105 LV4742D+5
Harper Polling for The Carolina JournalR-sponsoredNov 9–Nov 10600 LV4739D+8
Harper Polling for The Carolina JournalR-sponsoredSep 14–Sep 15600 RV4642D+4
Change Research for Carolina ForwardD-sponsoredSep 2–Sep 8855 LV4841D+7
Harper Polling for The Carolina JournalR-sponsoredAug 11–Aug 12600 RV4739D+8
Emerson CollegeJul 28–Jul 301,000 RV4741D+6
Victory InsightsR-sponsoredJul 28–Jul 30600 LV4340D+3

Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 11, 2026.

The state

Lean R+3: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentR+3.8R+6.0 vs. nation2020 presidentR+1.4R+5.9 vs. nation2024 presidentR+3.3R+1.8 vs. nation

Who lives here

Population
10,730,404
Adults with a B.A.+
36%
White, no degree
39%of adults
  • White 60%
  • Hispanic 11%
  • Black 20%
  • Asian 3%
  • Other / multiracial 5%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

2024 President Vote in this state

5,613,798 two-party votes · R+3.3 · R+1.8 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)51.6%
Kamala Harris (D)48.4%

2020

10,952,160 votes · R+1.8
✓ Thom Tillis (R)48.7%
Cal Cunningham (D)46.9%
Shannon W. Bray (L)3.1%
Kevin E. Hayes (CST)1.2%

2020 President Vote in this state

5,443,065 two-party votes · R+1.4 · R+5.9 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)50.7%
Joe Biden (D)49.3%

2016 President Vote in this state

4,551,947 two-party votes · R+3.8 · R+6.0 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)51.9%
Hillary Clinton (D)48.1%

2014

2,910,631 votes · R+1.6
✓ Thom Tillis (R)48.9%
Kay R. Hagan (D)47.3%
Sean Haugh (L)3.7%

2008

4,270,251 votes · D+8.7
✓ Kay Hagan (D)52.7%
Elizabeth Dole (R)44.2%
Christopher Cole (L)3.1%

2002

2,330,454 votes · R+8.7
✓ Elizabeth H. Dole (R)53.6%
Erskine B. Bowles (D)45.0%
Sean Haugh (L)1.5%