99chambers
?

Forecast updates · Forecast as of Oct 20

Tuesday, October 20, 2026

Calls changed
5
Party changes
2
New polls
105
New FEC totals
20
Compared with
Oct 19

Top line

The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Oct 19. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.

Senate

Chance of a Senate majority

D 74%▲ D +1

D50%ROct 10Oct 20

Expected seats 52.1 D · 47.9 R (0 D since Oct 19)

D 74%, 74% Democratic.

D 70%▲ D +2

D50%ROct 10Oct 20

Expected seats 52.0 D · 48.0 R (+0.2 D since Oct 19)

D 70%, 70% Democratic.

House

Chance of a House majority

D 97%no change

D50%ROct 10Oct 20

Expected seats 238.3 D · 196.7 R (0 D since Oct 19)

D 97%, 97% Democratic.

D 94%no change

D50%ROct 10Oct 20

Expected seats 238.9 D · 196.1 R (+0.3 D since Oct 19)

D 94%, 94% Democratic.

Governors

Chance of a majority of governorships

D 67%▼ R +2

D50%ROct 10Oct 20

Expected seats 26.7 D · 23.3 R (−0.1 D since Oct 19)

D 67%, 67% Democratic.

D 73%▼ R +1

D50%ROct 10Oct 20

Expected seats 27.3 D · 22.7 R (0 D since Oct 19)

D 73%, 73% Democratic.

Generic ballot (likely voters)

D+9.0R +0.1

Forecast environment

D+9.3R +0.1

Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.

Major changes

Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).

Each track runs from Solid R (left) to Solid D (right): Oct 19 → now.

Senate races

  1. U.S. Senate in North CarolinaLikely D → Solid D

Governor races

  1. Nevada GovernorToss-up → Lean R

Trifectas

States whose trifecta odds changed category
StateBeforeAfter
NevadaD trifecta 42% · R trifecta <1%D trifecta 24% · R trifecta <1%

Every call change

5 races changed rating or favored party since Oct 19 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.

Senate 1 change

  1. U.S. Senate in North CarolinaLikely D → Solid D

Governors 1 change

  1. Nevada GovernorToss-up → Lean R

Statewide offices 2 changes

  1. Nevada AuditorNow R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
  2. Nevada Lieutenant GovernorLean D → Toss-up

State legislatures 1 change in 1 chamber

Kentucky State Senate · 1 change
  1. SD-36Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up

New polls

105 polls new since Oct 19, in 25 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.

New polls
RacePollsterDatesSampleResultMarginSource
U.S. Senate in Florida (special)Univision/YouGovOct 2–Oct 15825 RVD 42 · R 51R+9st1.uvnimg.com ↗
U.S. Senate in GeorgiaQuantus InsightsR sponsorOct 15–Oct 17755 LVD 52 · R 45D+7drive.google.com ↗
U.S. Senate in GeorgiaQuantus InsightsR sponsorOct 15–Oct 17755 LVD 53 · R 45D+8drive.google.com ↗
U.S. Senate in GeorgiaQuantus InsightsR sponsorOct 15–Oct 17755 LVD 54 · R 46D+8drive.google.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Iowaco/efficientR sponsorOct 15–Oct 19863 LVD 45 · R 48R+3battlegrounds.coefficient.org ↗
U.S. Senate in IowaNPA PollingOct 8–Oct 12678 LVD 44 · R 47R+3backend.natpublicaffairs.com ↗
U.S. Senate in IowaNPA PollingOct 8–Oct 12678 LVD 47 · R 48R+1backend.natpublicaffairs.com ↗
U.S. Senate in MassachusettsUMass Amherst/YouGov for WCVBOct 5–Oct 12800 RVD 56 · R 29D+27umass.edu ↗
U.S. Senate in MassachusettsUMass Amherst/YouGov for WCVBOct 5–Oct 12800 RVD 54 · R 28D+26umass.edu ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaSurveyUSA for WRAL-TV and WSOC-TVOct 7–Oct 11643 LVD 54 · R 40D+14results.surveyusa.com ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaTrafalgar GroupR sponsorOct 8–Oct 101,091 LVD 49 · R 41D+8thetrafalgargroup.org ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaChange Research for Carolina ForwardD sponsorOct 1–Oct 7829 LVD 50 · R 40D+10carolinaforward.org ↗
Show 93 more
New polls (continued)
RacePollsterDatesSampleResultMarginSource
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaEast Carolina UniversitySep 30–Oct 3810 LVD 50 · R 43D+7surveyresearch-ecu.reportablenews.com ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaEast Carolina UniversitySep 30–Oct 3810 LVD 53 · R 46D+7surveyresearch-ecu.reportablenews.com ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaBig Data PollSep 27–Sep 29642 LVD 47 · R 35D+12bigdatapoll.com ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaBig Data PollSep 27–Sep 29642 LVD 51 · R 39D+12bigdatapoll.com ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaBig Data PollSep 27–Sep 29698 RVD 45 · R 34D+11bigdatapoll.com ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaBig Data PollSep 27–Sep 29698 RVD 49 · R 38D+11bigdatapoll.com ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaQuantus InsightsR sponsorSep 21–Sep 22686 LVD 48 · R 43D+5insideradvantage.com ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaFabrizio Ward/Impact Research for AARPSep 17–Sep 201,806 LVD 53 · R 42D+11documentcloud.org ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaOpinion Diagnostics for Common Cause North CarolinaSep 17–Sep 20857 LVD 51 · R 41D+10commoncause.org ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaOpinion Diagnostics for Common Cause North CarolinaSep 17–Sep 20857 LVD 52 · R 44D+8commoncause.org ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaYouGovSep 15–Sep 183,864 RVD 52 · R 41D+11quantusinsights.org ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaYouGovSep 15–Sep 183,742 LVD 53 · R 41D+12quantusinsights.org ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaYouGovSep 15–Sep 183,511 LVD 54 · R 41D+13quantusinsights.org ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaInsiderAdvantageR sponsorSep 16–Sep 171,200 LVD 48 · R 43D+5insideradvantage.com ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaHigh Point UniversitySep 9–Sep 16813 RVD 49 · R 39D+10highpoint.edu ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaHigh Point UniversitySep 9–Sep 16706 LVD 50 · R 42D+8highpoint.edu ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaHarper Polling for The Carolina JournalR sponsorSep 13–Sep 15608 LVD 49 · R 34D+15carolinajournal.com ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaCatawba College/YouGovSep 4–Sep 15885 LVD 47 · R 35D+12catawba.edu ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaCatawba College/YouGovSep 4–Sep 15885 LVD 48 · R 37D+11catawba.edu ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaThe Trafalgar GroupR sponsorSep 8–Sep 101,084 LVD 48 · R 42D+6thetrafalgargroup.org ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaEast Carolina UniversityAug 31–Sep 3675 LVD 46 · R 39D+7surveyresearch-ecu.reportablenews.com ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaEast Carolina UniversityAug 31–Sep 3675 LVD 52 · R 44D+8surveyresearch-ecu.reportablenews.com ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaElon University/YouGovAug 21–Aug 31565 LVD 49 · R 38D+11eloncdn.blob.core.windows.net ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaElon University/YouGovAug 21–Aug 31677 RVD 49 · R 36D+13eloncdn.blob.core.windows.net ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaElon University/YouGovAug 21–Aug 31800 AD 39 · R 29D+10eloncdn.blob.core.windows.net ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaHigh Point University/YouGovAug 3–Aug 12800 RVD 48 · R 41D+7highpoint.edu ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaHigh Point University/YouGovAug 3–Aug 12660 LVD 50 · R 45D+5highpoint.edu ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaHarper Polling for The Carolina JournalR sponsorAug 9–Aug 10600 LVD 52 · R 39D+13carolinajournal.com ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaChange Research for Carolina ForwardD sponsorAug 3–Aug 6915 LVD 50 · R 43D+7carolinaforward.org ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaChange ResearchD sponsorJul 29–Aug 1967 VD 50 · R 41D+9garypearcenc.substack.com ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaElon University/YouGovJul 23–Jul 31466 LVD 53 · R 42D+11eloncdn.blob.core.windows.net ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaElon University/YouGovJul 23–Jul 31717 RVD 51 · R 35D+16eloncdn.blob.core.windows.net ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaElon University/YouGovJul 23–Jul 31800 AD 47 · R 33D+14eloncdn.blob.core.windows.net ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaBeacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox NewsJul 23–Jul 271,005 RVD 53 · R 44D+9foxnews.com ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaPublic Policy PollingD sponsorJul 10–Jul 11759 LVD 48 · R 44D+4publicpolicypolling.com ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaNew York Times/Siena UniversityJun 15–Jun 27601 LVD 50 · R 43D+7nytimes.com ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaCatawba College/YouGovJun 1–Jun 10905 LVD 48 · R 34D+14catawba.edu ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaHarper PollingR sponsorMay 10–May 11600 LVD 50 · R 39D+11bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaChange Research for Carolina ForwardD sponsorMay 4–May 8957 LVD 49 · R 42D+7carolinaforward.org ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaOpinion DiagnosticsR sponsorApr 21–Apr 24830 VD 50 · R 41D+9thecentersquare.com ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaHigh Point University/YouGovMar 26–Apr 6703 LVD 50 · R 42D+8highpoint.edu ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaHigh Point University/YouGovMar 26–Apr 6800 RVD 49 · R 39D+10highpoint.edu ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaQuantus InsightsR sponsorMar 31–Apr 1987 LVD 49 · R 44D+5quantusinsights.org ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaHarper Polling for The Carolina JournalR sponsorMar 22–Mar 23600 LVD 49 · R 41D+8carolinajournal.com ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaCatawba College/YouGovMar 9–Mar 181,000 LVD 48 · R 34D+14catawba.edu ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaPublic Policy PollingD sponsorMar 13–Mar 14556 VD 47 · R 44D+3publicpolicypolling.com ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaNexus Strategies/Strategic Partners Solutions for Healthier UnitedMar 8–Mar 9800 RVD 50 · R 32D+18carolinajournal.com ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaChange ResearchD sponsorJan 31–Feb 41,069 RVD 50 · R 40D+10docs.google.com ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaTIPP Insights for the League of American WorkersR sponsorJan 12–Jan 151,512 RVD 48 · R 24D+24tippinsights.com ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaChange Research for Carolina ForwardD sponsorJan 5–Jan 71,105 LVD 47 · R 42D+5carolinaforward.org ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaHarper Polling for The Carolina JournalR sponsorNov 9–Nov 10600 LVD 47 · R 39D+8mcusercontent.com ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaHarper Polling for The Carolina JournalR sponsorSep 14–Sep 15600 RVD 46 · R 42D+4carolinajournal.com ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaChange Research for Carolina ForwardD sponsorSep 2–Sep 8855 LVD 48 · R 41D+7carolinaforward.org ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaHarper Polling for The Carolina JournalR sponsorAug 11–Aug 12600 RVD 47 · R 39D+8carolinajournal.com ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaEmerson CollegeJul 28–Jul 301,000 RVD 47 · R 41D+6emersoncollegepolling.com ↗
U.S. Senate in North CarolinaVictory InsightsR sponsorJul 28–Jul 30600 LVD 43 · R 40D+3irp.cdn-website.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Ohio (special)Marist UniversityOct 15–Oct 18— LVD 48 · R 44D+4maristpoll.marist.edu ↗
U.S. Senate in Ohio (special)Marist UniversityOct 15–Oct 181,176 RVD 51 · R 42D+9maristpoll.marist.edu ↗
U.S. Senate in Ohio (special)Rasmussen ReportsR sponsorOct 12–Oct 14901 LVD 47 · R 49R+2rasmussenreports.com ↗
U.S. Senate in TexasUniversity of HoustonOct 10–Oct 142,000 LVD 48 · R 46D+2uh.edu ↗
Connecticut GovernorGreatBlue Research for CT Insider and Sacred Heart UniversityOct 6–Oct 121,000 RVD 53 · R 31D+22s3.documentcloud.org ↗
Connecticut GovernorGreatBlue Research for CT Insider and Sacred Heart UniversityOct 6–Oct 121,000 RVD 56 · R 33D+23s3.documentcloud.org ↗
Florida GovernorActiVoteOct 1–Oct 19400 LVD 48 · R 52R+4activote.net ↗
Florida GovernorUnivision/YouGovOct 2–Oct 15825 RVD 42 · R 50R+8st1.uvnimg.com ↗
Georgia GovernorQuantus InsightsR sponsorOct 15–Oct 17755 LVD 47 · R 48R+1drive.google.com ↗
Georgia GovernorQuantus InsightsR sponsorOct 15–Oct 17755 LVD 48 · R 49R+1drive.google.com ↗
Georgia GovernorQuantus InsightsR sponsorOct 15–Oct 17755 LVD 49 · R 51R+2drive.google.com ↗
Iowa GovernorNPA PollingOct 8–Oct 12678 LVD 50 · R 45D+5backend.natpublicaffairs.com ↗
Massachusetts GovernorUMass Amherst/YouGov for WCVBOct 5–Oct 12800 RVD 56 · R 31D+25umass.edu ↗
Massachusetts GovernorUMass Amherst/YouGov for WCVBOct 5–Oct 12800 RVD 57 · R 32D+25umass.edu ↗
Nevada GovernorGlobal Strategy Group for Aaron Ford's campaignD sponsorOct 8–Oct 13700 LVD 47 · R 48R+1data.ddhq.io ↗
Ohio GovernorMarist UniversityOct 15–Oct 18— LVD 51 · R 43D+8maristpoll.marist.edu ↗
Ohio GovernorMarist UniversityOct 15–Oct 181,176 RVD 50 · R 43D+7maristpoll.marist.edu ↗
Oklahoma GovernorCross Timbers PollOct 7–Oct 1291 LVD 36 · R 39R+3crosstimberspoll.org ↗
Oklahoma GovernorCross Timbers PollOct 7–Oct 12128 RVD 30 · R 33R+3crosstimberspoll.org ↗
Oklahoma GovernorCross Timbers PollSep 27–Sep 3086 LVD 36 · R 46R+10crosstimberspoll.org ↗
Oklahoma GovernorCross Timbers PollSep 27–Sep 30118 RVD 34 · R 38R+4crosstimberspoll.org ↗
Pennsylvania GovernorPennLive for the Bravo GroupOct 5–Oct 11628 RVD 58 · R 28D+30bravogroup.us ↗
South Dakota GovernorMason-Dixon Polling & Strategy for South Dakota News Watch & Chiesman Center for Democracy at the University of South DakotaOct 12–Oct 14500 LVD 36 · R 56R+20sdnewswatch.org ↗
Texas GovernorUniversity of HoustonOct 10–Oct 142,000 LVD 46 · R 49R+3uh.edu ↗
Georgia Lieutenant GovernorQuantus InsightsR sponsorOct 15–Oct 17755 LVD 47 · R 47Evendrive.google.com ↗
Georgia Lieutenant GovernorQuantus InsightsR sponsorOct 15–Oct 17755 LVD 47 · R 48R+1drive.google.com ↗
Georgia Lieutenant GovernorQuantus InsightsR sponsorOct 15–Oct 17755 LVD 50 · R 50Evendrive.google.com ↗
Texas Lieutenant GovernorUniversity of HoustonOct 10–Oct 142,000 LVD 42 · R 47R+5uh.edu ↗
Massachusetts Attorney GeneralUMass Amherst/YouGov for WCVB-TVOct 5–Oct 12800 RVD 55 · R 31D+24umass.edu ↗
Texas Attorney GeneralUniversity of HoustonOct 10–Oct 142,000 LVD 42 · R 47R+5uh.edu ↗
Massachusetts AuditorUMass Amherst/YouGov for WCVB-TVOct 5–Oct 12800 RVD 60 · R ——umass.edu ↗
Connecticut's 2nd DistrictDM StrategiesOct 16–Oct 19279 LVD 52 · R 33D+19drive.google.com ↗
Florida's 9th DistrictSEA Polling for Soto's campaignD sponsorOct 10–Oct 15— LVD 44 · R 44Evenfloridapolitics.com ↗
Presidential approvalReuters/IpsosOct 16–Oct 191,679 AApprove 31 · Disapprove 66−35 netreuters.com ↗
Generic congressional ballotThe Washington Post/ABC News/IpsosOct 9–Oct 132,032 LVD 52 · R 44D+8ipsos.com ↗
Generic congressional ballotSurveyMonkey for NBC News Decision DeskSep 28–Oct 1217,649 RVD 55 · R 45D+10documentcloud.org ↗
Generic congressional ballotI&I/TIPP InsightsR sponsorSep 29–Oct 11,328 RVD 46 · R 42D+4issuesinsights.com ↗

Fundraising

20 federal nominees or incumbents with new FEC totals since Oct 19. Two-year totals (2025–26) of their authorized committees.

New fundraising totals
CandidateRaceRaisedNewCash on handThrough
Mike Simpson RepublicanIdaho's 2nd District$1,409,212+$92,586$300,591Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Missi Hesketh DemocraticMissouri's 7th District$110,697+$60,157$44,261Oct 15 (was Jul 15)
Brad Smith DemocraticWisconsin's 6th District$322,261+$27,201$91,303Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Cait Conley DemocraticNew York's 17th District$9,665,461−$24,708$1,144,255Sep 30
Maurice Mercer DemocraticAlabama's 6th District$30,339+$23,800$13,107Sep 30 (was Jun 30)
Kimberly Hardy DemocraticNorth Carolina's 7th District$390,475+$14,365$20,419Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Christian Vukasovich DemocraticMichigan's 5th District$151,704+$10,082$39,517Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
John Croisant DemocraticOklahoma's 1st District$217,469+$9,721$38,289Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Lou Correa DemocraticCalifornia's 46th District$1,493,329+$8,479$2,323,395Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Arthur Purves RepublicanVirginia's 11th District$38,665+$7,820$19,735Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Eunice Lehmacher DemocraticSouth Carolina's 3rd District$98,662+$5,734$21,976Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
David Dawson DemocraticIowa's 4th District$245,248+$5,010$68,996Sep 30
Show 8 more
New fundraising totals (continued)
CandidateRaceRaisedNewCash on handThrough
Brandon Wade DemocraticOklahoma's 2nd District$7,608+$3,318$1,427Sep 30 (was Jun 30)
Chris Reichard DemocraticMissouri's 8th District$27,958+$2,746$6,652Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Paul Nolley DemocraticIllinois's 16th District$603,606−$1,404$287,654Sep 30
Elizabeth Kirtley DemocraticOhio's 6th District$11,432+$938$4,373Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Eric Ching RepublicanCalifornia's 31st District$97,170+$600$10,375Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
David Russ RepublicanOregon's 6th District$13,166+$125-$550Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Genevieve Angel RepublicanCalifornia's 44th District$21,826+$104$10,944Oct 14 (was Sep 30)
Mark Baisley RepublicanU.S. Senate in Colorado$138,210+$0$27,710Oct 14 (was Sep 30)

State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes nightly on race pages but is not compared day to day.

Candidates

No race changed its modeled candidates since Oct 19.