Senate
Chance of a Senate majority
D 71%▲ D +3
Expected seats 51.8 D · 48.2 R (+0.2 D since Sep 7)
D 71%, 71% Democratic.D 62%▲ D +4
Expected seats 51.3 D · 48.7 R (+0.2 D since Sep 7)
D 62%, 62% Democratic.Forecast updates · Forecast as of Sep 8
Tuesday, September 8, 2026
- Calls changed
- 17
- Party changes
- 14
- New polls
- 14
- Compared with
- Sep 7
Top line
The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Sep 7. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
House
Chance of a House majority
D 91%▲ D +1
Expected seats 232.5 D · 202.5 R (+0.9 D since Sep 7)
D 91%, 91% Democratic.D 85%▲ D +2
Expected seats 233.0 D · 202.0 R (+1.3 D since Sep 7)
D 85%, 85% Democratic.Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
D 71%▲ D +6
Expected seats 26.9 D · 23.1 R (+0.4 D since Sep 7)
D 71%, 71% Democratic.D 75%▲ D +5
Expected seats 27.3 D · 22.7 R (+0.3 D since Sep 7)
D 75%, 75% Democratic.Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+7.7D +0.4
Forecast environment
D+7.7D +0.3
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.
Major changes
Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
Each track runs from Solid R (left) to Solid D (right): Sep 7 → now.
Senate races
- U.S. Senate in AlaskaNow D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
- U.S. Senate in IowaLean R → Toss-up
Governor races
- Nevada GovernorNow D favoredToss-up → Lean D
- Iowa GovernorLean D → Likely D
Trifectas
Every call change
17 races changed rating or favored party since Sep 7 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.
Senate 2 changes
- U.S. Senate in AlaskaNow D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
- U.S. Senate in IowaLean R → Toss-up
Governors 2 changes
- Nevada GovernorNow D favoredToss-up → Lean D
- Iowa GovernorLean D → Likely D
Statewide offices 1 change
- Nevada AuditorNow D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
State legislatures 10 changes in 10 chambers
Florida House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-100Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Iowa House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-52Toss-up → Lean D
Minnesota State Senate · 1 change
- SD-32Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Missouri House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-89Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
New Hampshire House of Representatives · 1 change
- State House District Strafford 07Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
New York State Assembly · 1 change
- AD-12Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Ohio House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-39Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Rhode Island State Senate · 1 change
- SD-34Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Texas House of Representatives · 1 change
- HD-112Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Washington State Senate · 1 change
- LD-35Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
New polls
14 polls new since Sep 7, in 7 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.
Show 2 more
| Race | Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Generic congressional ballot | The Economist/YouGov | Sep 4–Sep 8 | 1,015 LV | D 49 · R 38 | D+11 | d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | The Economist/YouGov | Sep 4–Sep 8 | 1,464 RV | D 42 · R 35 | D+7 | d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗ |
Fundraising
The FEC file this comparison needs was not archived for one of the two dates.
State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.
Candidates
No race changed its modeled candidates since Sep 7.