Runoff if no majority
A candidate needs more than half the vote in November. Otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on December 1, 2026. The forecast shows the chance that a race goes to a runoff.
Georgia › Georgia House of Representatives · State legislature · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Georgia House District 45
Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (51% chance it changes parties).
A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.
Schreiner wins Nov 3
41%
Runoff Dec 1
21%
Cooper wins Nov 3
38%
Including the runoff: Schreiner 51% · Cooper 49% to win the seat. In a runoff, Cooper wins 51% of the time.
- Average margin
- D+0.3
- 80% of outcomes
- R+10 to D+11
- Partisan lean
- R+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (62%).
Schreiner is favored to win: Schreiner wins in about 3 of every 5 simulations.
Schreiner wins Nov 3
54%
Runoff Dec 1
15%
Cooper wins Nov 3
31%
Including the runoff: Schreiner 62% · Cooper 38% to win the seat. In a runoff, Schreiner wins 51% of the time.
- Average margin
- D+3.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+10 to D+17
- Partisan lean
- R+3
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
How this race is decided
Range of outcomes
Final margin across our simulations; the white dashes mark the middle 80%.
The candidates
Democratic
Michelle Schreiner
RepublicanIncumbent
Sharon Cooper
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Georgia state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.0Used by the fundamentals
- Swing reaching this office
- 58%Of a shift in the environment, from past legislative races since 2016
- Southeast adjustment
- −1.8How legislative races in the region have run against lean and environment lately
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | -1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0.51 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -9.26 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -9.26 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The district
Lean R+3: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Precinct results re-aggregated to the current district lines.
Who lives here
- Population
- 51,100
- People per km²
- 773
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 76%
- White, no degree
- 17%of adults
- White 75%
- Hispanic 7%
- Black 4%
- Asian 11%
- Other / multiracial 4%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
Results in the same-numbered district; earlier elections may have used different lines.
2024
37,677 votes · R+14.9✓ Sharon Cooper (R)57.5%
Eric Castater (D)42.5%
2024 President Vote in this district
37,669 two-party votes · R+2.7 · R+1.2 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.4%
Kamala Harris (D)48.6%
2022 Earlier district lines
31,538 votes · R+17.8✓ Sharon Cooper (R)58.9%
Dustin McCormick (D)41.1%
2020 Earlier district lines
35,555 votes · R+10.0✓ Matt Dollar (R)55.0%
Sara Tindall Ghazal (D)45.0%
2020 President Vote in this district
37,582 two-party votes · R+4.1 · R+8.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.1%
Joe Biden (D)47.9%
2016 President Vote in this district
31,336 two-party votes · R+19.2 · R+21.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)59.6%
Hillary Clinton (D)40.4%
Also on the ballot in Georgia
Neighboring districts
HD-37Mary Frances Williams—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-43Solomon Adesanya—>99%Dem.>99%Dem. HD-44Danielle BellDon ParsonsFlip riskRunoff 21%62%Rep.60%Rep. HD-46Dumont WalkerJohn CarsonFlip riskRunoff 17%74%Rep.59%Rep. HD-49Teresa LinChuck MartinFlip riskFlip riskRunoff 21%55%Rep.55%Dem. HD-53Beth FullerDeborah SilcoxD flipD flipRunoff 9%90%Dem.91%Dem.