99chambers
?

Forecast updates · Forecast as of Oct 4

Sunday, October 4, 2026

Calls changed
9
Party changes
4
New polls
34
Compared with
Oct 3

Top line

The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Oct 3. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.

Senate

Chance of a Senate majority

D 74%▲ D +1

D50%RSep 1Oct 4

Expected seats 52.1 D · 47.9 R (+0.1 D since Oct 3)

D 74%, 74% Democratic.

D 69%▲ D +1

D50%RSep 1Oct 4

Expected seats 51.8 D · 48.2 R (0 D since Oct 3)

D 69%, 69% Democratic.

House

Chance of a House majority

D 95%no change

D50%RSep 1Oct 4

Expected seats 235.8 D · 199.2 R (+0.3 D since Oct 3)

D 95%, 95% Democratic.

D 90%no change

D50%RSep 1Oct 4

Expected seats 235.4 D · 199.6 R (0 D since Oct 3)

D 90%, 90% Democratic.

Governors

Chance of a majority of governorships

D 69%▼ R +2

D50%RSep 1Oct 4

Expected seats 26.9 D · 23.1 R (−0.1 D since Oct 3)

D 69%, 69% Democratic.

D 73%▼ R +1

D50%RSep 1Oct 4

Expected seats 27.3 D · 22.7 R (−0.1 D since Oct 3)

D 73%, 73% Democratic.

Generic ballot (likely voters)

D+8.7D +0.1

Forecast environment

D+8.9D +0.1

Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.

Major changes

Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).

Each track runs from Solid R (left) to Solid D (right): Oct 3 → now.

Governor races

  1. Vermont GovernorToss-up → Lean R

Trifectas

States whose trifecta odds changed category
StateBeforeAfter
Colorado · D trifecta nowD trifecta 95% · R trifecta <1%D trifecta 95% · R trifecta <1%
NevadaD trifecta 40% · R trifecta <1%D trifecta 40% · R trifecta <1%
VermontD trifecta 43% · R trifecta <1%D trifecta 30% · R trifecta <1%

Every call change

9 races changed rating or favored party since Oct 3 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.

Governors 1 change

  1. Vermont GovernorToss-up → Lean R

House 2 changes

  1. NC-1Toss-up → Lean D
  2. KY-6Lean R → Toss-up

State legislatures 6 changes in 5 chambers

Connecticut House of Representatives · 1 change
  1. HD-112Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Florida House of Representatives · 1 change
  1. HD-36Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Maine House of Representatives · 1 change
  1. HD-143Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Michigan State Senate · 1 change
  1. SD-9Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
New York State Assembly · 2 changes
  1. AD-23Lean D → Toss-up
  2. AD-46Toss-up → Lean R

New polls

34 polls new since Oct 3, in 22 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.

New polls
RacePollsterDatesSampleResultMarginSource
U.S. Senate in ArkansasGrayHouseR sponsorSep 30–Oct 4550 LVD 39 · R 50R+11x.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Florida (special)Targoz Market Research for the James Madison Institute, a conservative think tankSep 28–Oct 4847 LVD 42 · R 52R+10jamesmadison.org ↗
U.S. Senate in Florida (special)Targoz Market Research for the James Madison Institute, a conservative think tankSep 28–Oct 41,171 RVD 38 · R 50R+12jamesmadison.org ↗
U.S. Senate in IowaSuffolk UniversityOct 1–Oct 4500 LVD 48 · R 44D+4suffolk.edu ↗
U.S. Senate in KansasGBAO for Hamilton's campaignD sponsorSep 30–Oct 4600 LVD 46 · R 41D+5static.politico.com ↗
U.S. Senate in KansasGBAO for Hamilton's campaignD sponsorSep 30–Oct 4600 LVD 49 · R 44D+5static.politico.com ↗
U.S. Senate in KansasYouGovSep 24–Oct 42,255 LVD 48 · R 45D+3d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗
U.S. Senate in MaineMarist UniversityOct 1–Oct 41,505 RVD 51 · R 47D+4maristpoll.marist.edu ↗
U.S. Senate in MichiganYouGovSep 22–Oct 43,949 LVD 49 · R 48D+1d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗
U.S. Senate in MinnesotaGQRD sponsorOct 1–Oct 4800 LVD 53 · R 44D+9x.com ↗
U.S. Senate in MinnesotaGQRD sponsorOct 1–Oct 4800 LVD 50 · R 42D+8x.com ↗
Florida GovernorTargoz Market Research for the James Madison Institute, a conservative think tankSep 28–Oct 4849 LVD 42 · R 52R+10jamesmadison.org ↗
Show 22 more
New polls (continued)
RacePollsterDatesSampleResultMarginSource
Florida GovernorTargoz Market Research for the James Madison Institute, a conservative think tankSep 28–Oct 41,174 RVD 39 · R 48R+9jamesmadison.org ↗
Iowa GovernorSuffolk UniversityOct 1–Oct 4500 LVD 55 · R 43D+12suffolk.edu ↗
Kansas GovernorYouGovSep 24–Oct 42,255 LVD 44 · R 47R+3d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗
Maine GovernorMarist UniversityOct 1–Oct 41,505 RVD 52 · R 40D+12maristpoll.marist.edu ↗
Michigan GovernorYouGovSep 22–Oct 43,949 LVD 48 · R 45D+3d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net ↗
New York GovernorMarist UniversityOct 1–Oct 41,361 RVD 53 · R 42D+11maristpoll.marist.edu ↗
Oregon GovernorGBAO for Kotek's campaignD sponsorOct 1–Oct 4800 LVD 46 · R 42D+4opb.org ↗
Vermont GovernorState NavigateOct 2–Oct 4948 LVD 43 · R 46R+3projects.statenavigate.com ↗
Vermont Lieutenant GovernorState NavigateOct 2–Oct 4948 LVD 59 · R 32D+27projects.statenavigate.com ↗
Vermont Lieutenant GovernorState NavigateOct 2–Oct 4948 LVD 56 · R 30D+26projects.statenavigate.com ↗
Florida Attorney GeneralTargoz Market Research for the James Madison Institute, a conservative think tankSep 28–Oct 4854 LVD 40 · R 50R+10jamesmadison.org ↗
Florida Attorney GeneralTargoz Market Research for the James Madison Institute, a conservative think tankSep 28–Oct 41,163 RVD 37 · R 46R+9jamesmadison.org ↗
Kentucky's 6th DistrictLake Research Partners for the House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD sponsorSep 30–Oct 4400 LVD 47 · R 40D+7x.com ↗
Kentucky's 6th DistrictLake Research Partners for the House Majority PAC, which is focused on electing Democrats to the U.SD sponsorSep 30–Oct 4400 LVD 48 · R 45D+3x.com ↗
North Carolina's 1st DistrictGQR for Davis' campaignD sponsorSep 29–Oct 4500 LVD 47 · R 39D+8drive.google.com ↗
New York's 21st DistrictImpact Research for Gendebien’s campaignD sponsorSep 29–Oct 4500 LVD 45 · R 48R+3yahoo.com ↗
South Carolina's 1st DistrictGQRD sponsorSep 30–Oct 4400 LVD 48 · R 45D+3x.com ↗
Texas's 2nd DistrictImpact Research for Finnie's campaignD sponsorSep 29–Oct 4501 LVD 37 · R 46R+9x.com ↗
Generic congressional ballotMorning ConsultSep 28–Oct 417,659 LVD 50 · R 43D+7pro-assets.morningconsult.com ↗
Generic congressional ballotPew Research CenterSep 28–Oct 43,917 RVD 44 · R 36D+8pewresearch.org ↗
Presidential approvalPew Research CenterSep 28–Oct 45,062 AApprove 30 · Disapprove 68−38 netpewresearch.org ↗
Presidential approvalFinancial Times/FocaldataOct 2–Oct 42,275 RVApprove 34 · Disapprove 59−25 netft.com ↗

Fundraising

The FEC file this comparison needs was not archived for one of the two dates.

State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.

Candidates

No race changed its modeled candidates since Oct 3.