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Horizon · our Election Day forecast: polls, plus fundamentals like incumbency, fundraising and past results.

Pulse · polls only: where the races stand today, with no fundamentals and wider uncertainty.

What's the difference?

Nevada › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026

Nevada Auditor

Flip risk: Republican-held seat, a toss-up (52% chance it changes parties).

A toss-up: each side wins about half the simulations.

MacDougall (D)
52%
chance of winning
Matthews (R)
48%
Average margin
D+0.5
80% of outcomes
R+10 to D+11
Partisan lean
R+2
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (74%).

MacDougall is favored to win: MacDougall wins in 3 of every 4 simulations.

MacDougall (D)
74%
chance of winning
Matthews (R)
26%
Average margin
D+6.6
80% of outcomes
R+7 to D+20
Partisan lean
R+2
Polls
No pollsmodel only

Range of outcomes

D+0.5R+20R+10EvenD+10D+20
D+6.6R+40R+20EvenD+20D+40

How the odds have moved

Chance of winning by forecast date.

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3MacDougall 52%Matthews 48%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

0%25%50%75%100%AugSepOctNovNov 3MacDougall 74%Matthews 26%

Updated nightly. Each day is the current model run on the polls that had ended by then (how).

The candidates

What goes into the forecast

Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.

National environment
D+9.5Election Day forecast
Nevada state offices
+0.1Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
Environment here
D+9.6Used by the fundamentals
← RepublicanDemocratic →Lean + environmentUsual vote, shifted by the national and state moodD+7.5Fundamentals modelAdds incumbency, past results, money andexperienceD+0.3Polls in similar placesPolling of similar races in Nevada and look-alikeplacesD+0.7Polling averageNo polls of this racenot availableHorizon forecastPolls + fundamentals, projected to Election DayD+0.5Pulse forecastPolls (and polling of similar places) only, todayD+6.7

Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.

Fundamentals inputs
Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R)-1
Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money)0
Elected-experience edge-1
First-term incumbent0
Seat's last result vs. expectation0
Incumbent's last result vs. expectation0

Polls

No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.

The state

Lean R+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.

Presidential vote

← RepublicanDemocratic →2016 presidentD+2.6D+0.4 vs. nation2020 presidentD+2.4R+2.1 vs. nation2024 presidentR+3.2R+1.7 vs. nation

Who lives here

Population
3,184,612
Adults with a B.A.+
28%
White, no degree
34%of adults
  • White 45%
  • Hispanic 30%
  • Black 9%
  • Asian 9%
  • Other / multiracial 8%

American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.

Past results

2024 President Vote in this state

1,456,402 two-party votes · R+3.2 · R+1.7 vs. the nation
✓ Donald Trump (R)51.6%
Kamala Harris (D)48.4%

2020 President Vote in this state

1,373,376 two-party votes · D+2.4 · R+2.1 vs. the nation
✓ Joe Biden (D)51.2%
Donald Trump (R)48.8%

2016 President Vote in this state

1,051,318 two-party votes · D+2.6 · D+0.4 vs. the nation
✓ Hillary Clinton (D)51.3%
Donald Trump (R)48.7%

Also on the ballot in Nevada

GovernorAaron FordJoe LombardoFlip riskFlip risk58%Rep.55%Dem.