Runoff if no majority
A candidate needs more than half the vote in November. Otherwise the top two meet in a runoff on December 1, 2026. The forecast shows the chance that a race goes to a runoff.
Georgia › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
Georgia Secretary of State
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (73%).
Reynolds is favored to win: Reynolds wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Reynolds wins Nov 3
63%
Runoff Dec 1
20%
Fleming wins Nov 3
17%
Including the runoff: Reynolds 73% · Fleming 27% to win the seat. In a runoff, Reynolds wins 52% of the time.
- Average margin
- D+4.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+5 to D+13
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Projected flip: Republican-held seat, Democrats favored (73%).
Reynolds is favored to win: Reynolds wins in about 3 of every 4 simulations.
Reynolds wins Nov 3
66%
Runoff Dec 1
13%
Fleming wins Nov 3
21%
Including the runoff: Reynolds 73% · Fleming 27% to win the seat. In a runoff, Reynolds wins 52% of the time.
- Average margin
- D+6.2
- 80% of outcomes
- R+8 to D+20
- Partisan lean
- R+2
- Polls
- No pollsmodel only
Range of outcomes
How this race is decided
The candidates
Democratic
Penny Reynolds
Former Fulton County Superior Court judge (2000–2008) and television host
- Experience
- No elected office
Republican
Tim Fleming
State representative from the 114th district (2023–present), and former chief of staff for Governor Kemp
- Experience
- State legislature
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- Georgia state offices
- −1.6Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races · details
- Environment here
- D+8.0Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | -0.67 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -1.68 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
No public polls of this race. The forecast relies on fundamentals and on polling of similar places in the state.
The state
Lean R+2: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 10,940,407
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 35%
- White, no degree
- 33%of adults
- White 49%
- Hispanic 11%
- Black 31%
- Asian 5%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
5,211,134 two-party votes · R+2.2 · R+0.7 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)51.1%
Kamala Harris (D)48.9%
2022
3,910,201 votes · R+9.5✓ Brad Raffensperger (R)53.2%
Bee Nguyen (D)44.0%
Ted Metz (L)2.8%
2020 President Vote in this state
4,935,487 two-party votes · D+0.2 · R+4.3 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)50.1%
Donald Trump (R)49.9%
2018
3,883,594 votes · R+0.4✓ Brad Raffensperger (R)49.1%
John Barrow (D)48.7%
Smythe Duval (L)2.2%
2016 President Vote in this state
3,967,067 two-party votes · R+5.3 · R+7.5 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)52.7%
Hillary Clinton (D)47.3%