Senate
Chance of a Senate majority
D 77%▲ D +1
Expected seats 52.4 D · 47.6 R (+0.1 D since Sep 24)
D 77%, 77% Democratic.D 72%▲ D +2
Expected seats 52.1 D · 47.9 R (+0.1 D since Sep 24)
D 72%, 72% Democratic.Forecast updates · Forecast as of Sep 25
Friday, September 25, 2026
- Calls changed
- 3
- Party changes
- 2
- New polls
- 10
- Compared with
- Sep 24
Top line
The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Sep 24. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
House
Chance of a House majority
D 96%no change
Expected seats 236.5 D · 198.5 R (+0.6 D since Sep 24)
D 96%, 96% Democratic.D 91%▲ D +1
Expected seats 236.5 D · 198.5 R (+0.7 D since Sep 24)
D 91%, 91% Democratic.Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
D 74%▲ D +1
Expected seats 27.2 D · 22.8 R (+0.1 D since Sep 24)
D 74%, 74% Democratic.D 78%▲ D +1
Expected seats 27.6 D · 22.4 R (+0.1 D since Sep 24)
D 78%, 78% Democratic.Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+9.0D +0.2
Forecast environment
D+9.2D +0.2
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.
Major changes
Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
Each track runs from Solid R (left) to Solid D (right): Sep 24 → now.
Senate races
- U.S. Senate in South CarolinaLikely R → Lean R
Trifectas
| State | Before | After |
|---|---|---|
| Ohio · R trifecta now | D trifecta <1% · R trifecta 40% | D trifecta <1% · R trifecta 39% |
Every call change
3 races changed rating or favored party since Sep 24 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.
Senate 1 change
- U.S. Senate in South CarolinaLikely R → Lean R
State legislatures 1 change in 1 chamber
Wisconsin State Assembly · 1 change
- AD-82Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
New polls
10 polls new since Sep 24, in 6 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.
| Race | Pollster | Dates | Sample | Result | Margin | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Senate in Alabama | RMG Research for Alabama Policy ActionR sponsor | Sep 21–Sep 25 | 800 RV | D 33 · R 54 | R+21 | yellowhammernews.com ↗ |
| U.S. Senate in South Carolina | Trafalgar GroupR sponsor | Sep 23–Sep 25 | 1,087 LV | D 42 · R 43 | R+1 | thetrafalgargroup.org ↗ |
| Alabama Governor | RMG Research for Alabama Policy ActionR sponsor | Sep 21–Sep 25 | 800 RV | D 37 · R 50 | R+13 | yellowhammernews.com ↗ |
| New York Governor | co/efficient for Coalition to Protect Nassau TaxpayersR sponsor | Sep 23–Sep 25 | 1,046 LV | D 48 · R 41 | D+7 | nypost.com ↗ |
| Rhode Island Governor | Opinion Diagnostics for Block's campaign | Sep 23–Sep 25 | 800 LV | D 41 · R 19 | D+22 | golocalprov.com ↗ |
| Rhode Island Governor | Opinion Diagnostics for Block's campaign | Sep 23–Sep 25 | 800 LV | D 39 · R — | — | golocalprov.com ↗ |
| Alabama Lieutenant Governor | RMG Research for Alabama Policy ActionR sponsor | Sep 21–Sep 25 | 800 RV | D 33 · R 49 | R+16 | yellowhammernews.com ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Angus Reid Global | Sep 19–Sep 25 | 919 RV | D 56 · R 40 | D+16 | angusreid.us ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Angus Reid Global | Sep 19–Sep 25 | 1,041 RV | D 49 · R 35 | D+14 | angusreid.us ↗ |
| Generic congressional ballot | Angus Reid Global | Sep 19–Sep 25 | 1,205 A | D 45 · R 34 | D+11 | angusreid.us ↗ |
Fundraising
The FEC file this comparison needs was not archived for one of the two dates.
State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.
Candidates
No race changed its modeled candidates since Sep 24.