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Forecast updates · Forecast as of Sep 23

Wednesday, September 23, 2026

Calls changed
10
Party changes
5
New polls
25
Compared with
Sep 22

Top line

The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Sep 22. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.

Senate

Chance of a Senate majority

D 75%▼ R +1

D50%RSep 1Sep 23

Expected seats 52.3 D · 47.7 R (−0.1 D since Sep 22)

D 75%, 75% Democratic.

D 70%▼ R +1

D50%RSep 1Sep 23

Expected seats 51.9 D · 48.1 R (−0.1 D since Sep 22)

D 70%, 70% Democratic.

House

Chance of a House majority

D 95%no change

D50%RSep 1Sep 23

Expected seats 235.9 D · 199.1 R (+0.1 D since Sep 22)

D 95%, 95% Democratic.

D 90%no change

D50%RSep 1Sep 23

Expected seats 235.5 D · 199.5 R (0 D since Sep 22)

D 90%, 90% Democratic.

Governors

Chance of a majority of governorships

D 73%▼ R +2

D50%RSep 1Sep 23

Expected seats 27.2 D · 22.8 R (−0.1 D since Sep 22)

D 73%, 73% Democratic.

D 77%▼ R +1

D50%RSep 1Sep 23

Expected seats 27.5 D · 22.5 R (−0.1 D since Sep 22)

D 77%, 77% Democratic.

Generic ballot (likely voters)

D+8.8R +0.1

Forecast environment

D+9.0D +0.1

Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.

Major changes

Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).

Each track runs from Solid R (left) to Solid D (right): Sep 22 → now.

Governor races

  1. Wisconsin GovernorLikely D → Lean D

Trifectas

States whose trifecta odds changed category
StateBeforeAfter
Ohio · R trifecta nowD trifecta <1% · R trifecta 40%D trifecta <1% · R trifecta 40%

Every call change

10 races changed rating or favored party since Sep 22 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.

Governors 1 change

  1. Wisconsin GovernorLikely D → Lean D

House 3 changes

  1. WI-1Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
  2. OH-9Lean D → Toss-up
  3. PA-1Toss-up → Lean D

State legislatures 6 changes in 5 chambers

Maine House of Representatives · 1 change
  1. HD-86Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Montana State Senate · 1 change
  1. SD-42Lean R → Toss-up
Pennsylvania House of Representatives · 1 change
  1. HD-44Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
Utah House of Representatives · 2 changes
  1. HD-59Now D favoredToss-up → Toss-up
  2. HD-20Lean R → Toss-up
Wisconsin State Assembly · 1 change
  1. AD-82Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up

New polls

25 polls new since Sep 22, in 13 races. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.

New polls
RacePollsterDatesSampleResultMarginSource
U.S. Senate in GeorgiaInsiderAdvantageR sponsorSep 22–Sep 231,200 LVD 50 · R 42D+8insideradvantage.com ↗
U.S. Senate in GeorgiaBig Data Poll for the Public Polling ProjectR sponsorSep 21–Sep 23721 RVD 51 · R 40D+11bigdatapoll.com ↗
U.S. Senate in GeorgiaBig Data Poll for the Public Polling ProjectR sponsorSep 21–Sep 23678 LVD 52 · R 41D+11bigdatapoll.com ↗
U.S. Senate in GeorgiaBig Data Poll for the Public Polling ProjectR sponsorSep 21–Sep 23678 LVD 55 · R 45D+10bigdatapoll.com ↗
U.S. Senate in IowaInsiderAdvantageR sponsorSep 22–Sep 231,200 LVD 47 · R 46D+1insideradvantage.com ↗
U.S. Senate in MaineInsiderAdvantageR sponsorSep 22–Sep 231,200 LVD 46 · R 46Eveninsideradvantage.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Michiganco/efficientR sponsorSep 21–Sep 23843 LVD 45 · R 45Evenbattlegrounds.coefficient.org ↗
U.S. Senate in Michiganco/efficientR sponsorSep 21–Sep 23843 LVD 50 · R 50Evenbattlegrounds.coefficient.org ↗
U.S. Senate in Ohio (special)Rasmussen ReportsR sponsorSep 22–Sep 231,115 LVD 46 · R 43D+3rasmussenreports.com ↗
U.S. Senate in Ohio (special)Quantus InsightsR sponsorSep 21–Sep 23695 LVD 47 · R 47Evenquantusinsights.org ↗
U.S. Senate in Ohio (special)Quantus InsightsR sponsorSep 21–Sep 23695 LVD 46 · R 45D+1quantusinsights.org ↗
Georgia GovernorInsiderAdvantageR sponsorSep 22–Sep 231,200 LVD 46 · R 48R+2insideradvantage.com ↗
Show 13 more
New polls (continued)
RacePollsterDatesSampleResultMarginSource
Georgia GovernorBig Data Poll for the Public Polling ProjectR sponsorSep 21–Sep 23712 RVD 50 · R 50Evenbigdatapoll.com ↗
Georgia GovernorBig Data Poll for the Public Polling ProjectR sponsorSep 21–Sep 23712 RVD 46 · R 48R+2bigdatapoll.com ↗
Georgia GovernorBig Data Poll for the Public Polling ProjectR sponsorSep 21–Sep 23678 LVD 49.5 · R 50.5R+1bigdatapoll.com ↗
Georgia GovernorBig Data Poll for the Public Polling ProjectR sponsorSep 21–Sep 23678 LVD 47 · R 49R+2bigdatapoll.com ↗
Michigan Governorco/efficientR sponsorSep 21–Sep 23843 LVD 47 · R 44D+3battlegrounds.coefficient.org ↗
Wisconsin GovernorMarquette UniversitySep 16–Sep 23692 LVD 49 · R 46D+3law.marquette.edu ↗
Wisconsin GovernorMarquette UniversitySep 16–Sep 23843 RVD 46 · R 45D+1law.marquette.edu ↗
Montana's 1st DistrictImpact Research for Forstag's campaignD sponsorSep 20–Sep 23500 LVD 47 · R 44D+3mcusercontent.com ↗
New York's 23rd DistrictPublic Policy Polling for Gies' campaignD sponsorSep 22–Sep 23626 LVD 35 · R 52R+17politico.com ↗
Ohio's 9th DistrictDCCC Analytics DepartmentSep 22–Sep 23481 LVD 48 · R 48Evendccc.org ↗
Utah's 2nd DistrictCrosby for CongressD sponsorSep 21–Sep 23657 LVD 35 · R 32D+3petercrosbyforcongress.org ↗
Wisconsin's 1st DistrictDCCC Analytics DepartmentSep 21–Sep 23495 LVD 48 · R 48Evenhub.nationaljournal.com ↗
Generic congressional ballotRasmussen ReportsR sponsorSep 17–Sep 231,819 LVD 48 · R 43D+5rasmussenreports.com ↗

Fundraising

The FEC file this comparison needs was not archived for one of the two dates.

State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.

Candidates

1 race where the Democratic-side or Republican-side candidate in the forecast changed.

Candidate changes
RaceSideBeforeAfter
U.S. Senate in MontanaDAlani BankheadSeth Bodnar