Senate
Chance of a Senate majority
D 74%
Expected seats 52.1 D · 47.9 R
D 74%, 74% Democratic.D 70%
Expected seats 52.0 D · 48.0 R
D 70%, 70% Democratic.Forecast updates · Forecast as of Oct 10
Saturday, October 10, 2026
The first entry: later entries compare with it.
Top line
The favored party's chance of a majority. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
House
Chance of a House majority
D 97%
Expected seats 238.1 D · 196.9 R
D 97%, 97% Democratic.D 93%
Expected seats 238.3 D · 196.7 R
D 93%, 93% Democratic.Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
D 72%
Expected seats 27.1 D · 22.9 R
D 72%, 72% Democratic.D 77%
Expected seats 27.6 D · 22.4 R
D 77%, 77% Democratic.Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+9.0
Forecast environment
D+9.5
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.
Major changes
Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
This is the first entry; later entries compare with it.
Every call change
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