Senate
Chance of a Senate majority
D 75%no change
Expected seats 52.2 D · 47.8 R (0 D since Oct 22)
D 75%, 75% Democratic.D 71%no change
Expected seats 52.0 D · 48.0 R (0 D since Oct 22)
D 71%, 71% Democratic.Forecast updates · Forecast as of Oct 23
Friday, October 23, 2026
- Calls changed
- 1
- Party changes
- 1
- New polls
- 0
- New FEC totals
- 0
- Compared with
- Oct 22
Top line
The favored party's chance of a majority, and the change since Oct 22. Each dot is one update; hover for the day.
House
Chance of a House majority
D 98%no change
Expected seats 238.5 D · 196.5 R (0 D since Oct 22)
D 98%, 98% Democratic.D 94%no change
Expected seats 239.2 D · 195.8 R (0 D since Oct 22)
D 94%, 94% Democratic.Governors
Chance of a majority of governorships
D 71%no change
Expected seats 26.9 D · 23.1 R (0 D since Oct 22)
D 71%, 71% Democratic.D 77%no change
Expected seats 27.5 D · 22.5 R (0 D since Oct 22)
D 77%, 77% Democratic.Generic ballot (likely voters)
D+9.0no change
Forecast environment
D+9.3no change
Changes are in percentage points of the chance of a majority, labeled by the party they favor. Expected seats include seats not on the ballot. Horizon and Pulse.
Major changes
Senate and governor races, state legislative chambers and trifectas whose favored party or rating changed (Horizon).
No Senate or governor race, state legislative chamber or trifecta changed its rating or favored party since Oct 22.
Every call change
1 race changed rating or favored party since Oct 22 (Horizon). Ratings: Solid ≥ 95%, Likely ≥ 80%, Lean ≥ 60%, Toss-up below 60% for both sides.
State legislatures 1 change in 1 chamber
New York State Assembly · 1 change
- AD-112Now R favoredToss-up → Toss-up
New polls
0 polls new since Oct 22. Shares as published; the forecast adjusts them before averaging.
Fundraising
0 federal nominees or incumbents with new FEC totals since Oct 22. Two-year totals (2025–26) of their authorized committees.
State legislative fundraising (New York's Board of Elections) refreshes weekly on race pages but is not compared day to day.
Candidates
3 races where the Democratic-side or Republican-side candidate in the forecast changed.
| Race | Side | Before | After |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Governor | R | Dave Bronson | Bernadette Wilson |
| California's 7th District | D | Doris Matsui | Mai Vang |
| California's 34th District | D | Jimmy Gomez | Angela Gonzales-Torres |