Independent
Seth Bodnar
Former president of the University of Montana (2018–2026)
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $4.7M
- From individuals
- $4.5M
- Spent
- $3.9M
- Cash on hand
- $745.1K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Montana › U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
U.S. Senate in Montana
Alme is very likely to win: Alme wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Bodnar (Ind.)
2%
chance of winning
Alme (R)
98%
- Average margin
- R+13.5
- 80% of outcomes
- R+22 to R+6
- Partisan lean
- R+20
- Polls
- 21in our database
Alme is very likely to win: Alme wins in 49 of every 50 simulations.
Bodnar (Ind.)
2%
chance of winning
Alme (R)
98%
- Average margin
- R+14.1
- 80% of outcomes
- R+23 to R+6
- Partisan lean
- R+20
- Polls
- 21in our database
Range of outcomes
The candidates
Democratic
Alani Bankhead
Air Force lieutenant colonel and leadership coach
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $172.5K
- From individuals
- $154.9K
- Spent
- $134.3K
- Cash on hand
- $38.3K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
Republican
Kurt Alme
Former U.S. Attorney for the District of Montana (2017–2020, 2025–2026)
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $2M
- From individuals
- $1M
- Spent
- $534.1K
- Cash on hand
- $1.5M
Money: FEC, through Jun 30, 2026.
Libertarian
Kyle Austin
Pharmacist and Republican candidate for MT-2 in 2022 and 2024
- Experience
- No elected office
- Raised
- $261.8K
- From individuals
- $638
- Spent
- $254.5K
- Cash on hand
- $7.9K
Money: FEC, through Sep 30, 2026.
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast; federal races run in it
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 0 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 1.22 |
| Elected-experience edge | 0 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | 9.78 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | 0 |
Polls
All 21 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Bodnar | Alme | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concord Public Opinion Partners for Bodnar's campaign | Oct 6–Oct 8 | 405 LV | 37 | 35 | D+2 | R+3.8 |
| American Pulse Research for KULR-TV | Sep 19–Sep 24 | 604 LV | 26 | 45 | R+19 | R+26.3 |
| Quantus InsightsR-sponsored | Sep 14–Sep 15 | 625 LV | 24 | 44 | R+20 | R+26.6 |
| Aspect Strategic for Montana Freedom PAC, which supports Bodnar | Sep 7–Sep 15 | 715 LV | 32 | 44 | R+12 | R+17.3 |
| Rutgers-Eagleton for the Montana Free Press | Aug 27–Sep 7 | 845 RV | 30 | 38 | R+8 | R+13.5 |
| Peak Insights for Alme's campaignR-sponsored | Aug 23–Aug 25 | 600 LV | 22 | 44 | R+22 | R+20.8 |
| Hart Research for Forward Montana, which supports BodnarD-sponsored | Aug 1–Aug 4 | 800 LV | 30 | 45 | R+15 | |
| Tavern ResearchD-sponsored | Jul 23–Jul 27 | 517 LV | 25 | 49 | R+24 | |
| Tavern ResearchD-sponsored | Jul 23–Jul 27 | 517 LV | 27 | 49 | R+22 | |
| Tavern ResearchD-sponsored | Jul 23–Jul 27 | 517 LV | — | 59 | — | |
| Tavern ResearchD-sponsored | Jul 23–Jul 27 | 517 LV | — | 56 | — | |
| GQR for Contours IncD-sponsored | Jul 23–Jul 26 | 500 LV | 27 | 41 | R+14 | |
| GQR for Contours IncD-sponsored | Jul 23–Jul 26 | 500 LV | — | 44 | — | |
| GQR for Contours IncD-sponsored | Jul 23–Jul 26 | 500 LV | — | 52 | — | |
| Bullfinch GroupR-sponsored | Jul 13–Jul 16 | 793 LV | 24 | 36 | R+12 | |
| GrayHouseR-sponsored | Jun 23–Jun 24 | 500 RV | 17 | 41 | R+24 | |
| Hart Research for The Majority Institute, a research firm that supports DemocratsD-sponsored | Jun 18–Jun 24 | 800 LV | 25 | 47 | R+22 | |
| Hart Research for The Majority Institute, a research firm that supports DemocratsD-sponsored | Jun 18–Jun 24 | 800 LV | — | 49 | — | |
| Tavern ResearchD-sponsored | Jun 16–Jun 19 | 400 LV | 24 | 49 | R+25 | |
| Tavern ResearchD-sponsored | Jun 16–Jun 19 | 400 LV | — | 56 | — | |
| Public Opinion Strategies for The Political Company, a consulting firm that supports RepublicansR-sponsored | Jun 8–Jun 11 | 500 LV | 20 | 44 | R+24 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Oct 8, 2026.
The state
Lean R+20: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 1,116,875
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 35%
- White, no degree
- 55%of adults
- White 84%
- Hispanic 5%
- Asian 1%
- Other / multiracial 11%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
583,985 two-party votes · R+20.6 · R+19.1 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)60.3%
Kamala Harris (D)39.7%
2020
605,637 votes · R+10.0✓ Steve Daines (R)55.0%
Steve Bullock (D)45.0%
2020 President Vote in this state
588,388 two-party votes · R+16.8 · R+21.3 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)58.4%
Joe Biden (D)41.6%
2016 President Vote in this state
456,949 two-party votes · R+22.2 · R+24.4 vs. the nation✓ Donald Trump (R)61.1%
Hillary Clinton (D)38.9%
2014
369,826 votes · R+18.1✓ Steve Daines (R)57.8%
Amanda Curtis (D)40.1%
Roger Roots (L)2.1%
2008
477,658 votes · D+45.8✓ Max Baucus (D)72.9%
Bob Kelleher (R)27.1%
2002
326,537 votes · D+32.8✓ Max Baucus (D)62.7%
Mike Taylor (R)31.7%
Stan Jones (L)3.2%
Bob Kelleher (G)2.3%