Fusion voting
Candidates can run on several party lines, such as Working Families or Conservative, and their votes on every line are added together. The forecast counts all of a candidate's lines.
New York › Statewide offices · November 3, 2026 · Updated Oct 16, 2026
New York Attorney General
FusionJames is very likely to win: James wins in more than 99 of every 100 simulations.
James (D)
99%
chance of winning
Komatireddy (R)
1%
- Average margin
- D+19.9
- 80% of outcomes
- D+11 to D+29
- Partisan lean
- D+15
- Polls
- 2in our database
James is very likely to win: James wins in 19 of every 20 simulations.
James (D)
96%
chance of winning
Komatireddy (R)
4%
- Average margin
- D+16.7
- 80% of outcomes
- D+5 to D+29
- Partisan lean
- D+15
- Polls
- 2in our database
Range of outcomes
How this race is decided
The candidates
DemocraticIncumbent
Letitia James
Incumbent attorney general (2019–present)
- Experience
- Statewide office or Congress
Republican
Saritha Komatireddy
Former federal prosecutor
- Experience
- No elected office
What goes into the forecast
Every ingredient's estimate of the final margin.
- National environment
- D+9.5Election Day forecast
- New York state offices
- −0.3Polls for governor, statewide and legislative races, without this race · details
- Environment here
- D+9.2Used by the fundamentals
Each estimate is a margin before national and statewide uncertainty is simulated. Horizon blends polls, fundamentals and a little of the similar-places estimate, weighting each by how precise it is; Pulse uses polls and similar places only.
Fundamentals inputs
| Incumbency (+1 D, −1 R) | 1 |
| Fundraising edge (log ratio of individual money) | 0 |
| Elected-experience edge | 1 |
| First-term incumbent | 0 |
| Seat's last result vs. expectation | -7.72 |
| Incumbent's last result vs. expectation | -7.72 |
Polls
All 2 polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | James | Komatireddy | Margin | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College | Sep 11–Sep 17 | 1,144 LV | 52 | 39 | D+13 | D+10.8 |
| Siena College | Aug 3–Aug 6 | 811 LV | 54 | 36 | D+18 | D+17.2 |
Adjusted: after correcting for the pollster's house effect, registered vs. likely voters, and movement in the national environment since the poll; shown for the polls carrying the most weight in today's average. Larger dots in the chart carry the most weight. Last poll: Sep 17, 2026.
The state
Lean D+15: how much more Democratic or Republican than the nation it votes for president.
Presidential vote
Who lives here
- Population
- 19,774,787
- Adults with a B.A.+
- 40%
- White, no degree
- 30%of adults
- White 53%
- Hispanic 20%
- Black 13%
- Asian 9%
- Other / multiracial 5%
American Community Survey 2020–2024, aggregated from census tracts.
Past results
2024 President Vote in this state
8,198,094 two-party votes · D+12.7 · D+14.2 vs. the nation✓ Kamala Harris (D)56.3%
Donald Trump (R)43.7%
2022
5,843,066 votes · D+9.1✓ Letitia A James (D)54.5%
Michael Henry (R)45.5%
2020 President Vote in this state
8,475,783 two-party votes · D+23.4 · D+18.9 vs. the nation✓ Joe Biden (D)61.7%
Donald Trump (R)38.3%
2018
5,929,696 votes · D+28.1✓ Letitia A James (D)62.4%
Keith Wofford (R)35.0%
Michael Sussman (OTH)1.2%
Christopher B Garvey (OTH)0.7%
2016 President Vote in this state
7,375,658 two-party votes · D+23.5 · D+21.3 vs. the nation✓ Hillary Clinton (D)61.8%
Donald Trump (R)38.2%